Where's the "deal"?

Is Lebanon headed towards a denouement?

Forget that clown Hossam for a moment; if you look at the Lebanese scene in the last few days, you can’t avoid the feeling that things are not looking as hopeless as they used to.

The Maronite Patriarch seemed to have abandoned President Lahhoud. The mere fact that the President was not invited to an all-heavyweight-Maronites event in Bkirki is a big Slap to the visibly irritated Baabda resident.

On the Hezbollah front, things seem to be solving themselves slowly. Shebaa will be officially declared Lebanese by the Syrians and The Party of God is bent on explaining to their fellow Lebanese their positions on all matters from Syria to diesel, all through lively TV debates. This is a sign that they care about the Lebanese institutions and have genuine intentions to reach out.

This didn’t pass unnoticed on the March 14 people, who offered an initiative to reconcile with Hezbollah. The initiative seems to be part of a larger wave of rapprochements, from Seniora and Shara’ wanting to open a new page, to Aoun and Geagea deciding to compete democratically, to the expected meeting between Aoun and Jumblat.

Everyone wants to talk to everyone. What happened? Has a deal been reached between the Saudis and the Syrians? Is it about the Syrians accepting to hand in the 5 security chiefs? If not, how can we explain this new and overwhelming positive energy?

Shifting Attitudes

I found this Table on The Economist's website. It's part of an interesting article about how the idea of "resistance" is slowly losing grounds among Moslems everywhere. The graph shows the attitude changes in selected countries, but I was particularly impressed by how Lebanon has fared in the last three years.


According to the table, in the Summer of 2002, 73% of the Lebanese thought that it was often/sometimes ok to use violence against civilians. That figure went down to 39% in July 2005. a whopping 34-point shift.

The popularity of Bin Laden has also taken a nose dive: While 14% of Lebanese had a lot/some confidence in Bin Laden in the Summer of 2002, only 2% thought so in July 2005. (still a scary figure but compare that to Jordan's 60 percent and you get the picture).

What do you think the reasons of such shifts are? do you think that Hariri's Assassination had anything to do with the Lebanese figures? What other factors can we think of? Are the figures a good indicator of Hezbollah's declining popularity?

Lebanon Bloggers

Below is the introduction to the Lebanese Blogosphere that I’m planning to post in the Global Voices website. Your feedback is much appreciated.

Yesterday, Anton Efendi from Across the Bay, posted this picture:


It shows the Prime Minister planting a fatherly kiss on May Chidiac's forehead. May Chidiac is the Journalist who lost a foot and an arm in a terrorist car bomb.

To Anton, this kiss symbolizes the story of Lebanon: a country that throughout its history, survived by countering devastating acts of violence and adversity with great compassion.

The Lebanese have a strange relationship with their country. Most of them leave to find opportunity somewhere else, they complain constantly of its wrongs, they are very vocal of its shortcomings and have built a reputation worldwide for self-hate. Yet at the same time, they all harbor an unbridled sense of belonging, a sense of passion for their motherland, an optimism that one day, the sun of the land of the Cedars will rise again.

It is this paradox that defines what it truly means to be Lebanese, and it is in this context that we have to look at the Lebanese Blogosphere.

My name is Mustapha, and I'll be writing about the Lebanese side of the Blogosphere for the Global Voices project. I'll try every week to summarize what various Lebanese Bloggers are writing, but today, please allow me to introduce you to a lovely bunch: The Lebanon Bloggers.

What makes someone a Lebanon blogger?

Some Lebanese only write about their personal lives, but deserve the title for the sheer fact of them being Lebanese. Take La La for instance, she wrote yesterday about how upset she is that her best friend is devoting her entire time to her boyfriend. If La La didn't occasionally mention her Lebanese heritage, you couldn't possibly tell from her blog that she's Lebanese. The same can be said of Opinion From Bloggistan, Levantese, or The Suffragettes.

Some bloggers lay claim to the title not because they're Lebanese, but because they write about Lebanon. One example is Micheal Totten, an American who lives in and writes about Lebanon. Another is Unfrozen-Caveman-Linguist (UCL), author of Bliss Street Journal. UCL is also an American who lived for a while in Lebanon, but who still blogs about it even after he left.

There are many Lebanon Bloggers out there, and thanks to the great effort of people like Eve, Rampurple, Delirious, Liminal, Tempest, Maldolor, Ramzi and others, they can be found in Lebanon Heart Blogs, a blog about the Lebanon bloggers.
But For the Purpose of the Global Voices project, I found it useful to introduce the bloggers who post regular commentary about current affairs. I already mentioned Anton Efendi, who writes in Across The Bay, a rather highbrow blog that sees current events as the manifestation of Machiavellian machinations of the political class.

Across The Bay has been around for a while, but a significant chunk of blogs came to light right after the colossal assassination of Rafic Hariri, Lebanon's previous Prime Minister, and the ensuing "Cedar Revolution". Those bloggers sometimes like to call themselves the March 14 bloggers, in reference to the day where the Lebanese from all sects and regions stood together to ask for The Truth and for the Syrians to leave.

Raja and Doha from The Lebanese Bloggers, Lebanon.profile from Lebanese Political Journal, and Mustapha from The Beirut Spring (yours truly), started their blogs right after the Hariri Assassination.
This is how The Lebanese Bloggers explain the raison-d'etre of their blog:

This blog was created to honor the memory of heroes of all the Lebanese sects who were assassinated for their patriotic stands.... May God bless their souls and bless Lebanon.

Other bloggers immediately followed. While they don't see eye to eye on some issues, they write with obvious passion and strong wit. Kais author of From Beirut To The Beltway, Carine from Chercheuse D'or, Vox from The Federal Republic of Lebanon (who also writes in French), Lazarus from Letters Apart, Ramzi from Ramzi’s Blah Blah, Jose Wales from Lebanonesque, Maya in her space and Abu Takla all have their distinctive personalities and styles.

Those and many more constitute the wonderful world of the Lebanon Bloggers. You will hopefully hear from them all soon.

Drama Deficit

Some copycat Syrian "Images"

Below is a series of images from "demonstrations" in Syria, compared with where they were inspired from. It shows just how much difference there is between a true longing for liberty and freedom, and an imposed one from above.

1- Check the difference between those two pictures. The Lebanese Politicians have sincere emotions on their faces, they're visibly upset and they visibly have their lives on the line. Compare that to the I-hope-i'm-standing-well posture of their Syrian counterparts:


2- See the difference between a truely dynamic Lebanese popular expression and army-like discipline in Syria:


3-No Comment:



Want to see more? do you miss March 14? There are 628 pictures here.

Miss Lebanon

This is what hope looks like:


May’s Appearance on TV was a necessary boost to a lot of people who are starting to lose morale, to people who are starting to lose confidence in the future of Lebanon.
Watching her talk with her trademark smile, telling us that she’ll be back soon is a very powerful symbol.

May was saying: You can take my arm, you can take my foot, but you can never take away my smile.

Thank you May for letting us know what true resistance means.

Duke Goes to Syria

David Duke, former leader in the KKK (Klu Klux Klan) and author of My Awakening (a book about why white Americans should have equal rights as their black counterparts) goes to Syria to express his support for the Assad Regime. Another Brilliant PR move by Syria's Baathists. And we thought that we couldn't find anyone as stupid as George Galloway.

Another Letter From Israel

The Lebanese government is failing miserably in the propaganda war


You know that your government is failing in its propaganda war when your enemy starts using your own message against you. (This is the second time Israel does so)

If Mr. Seniora had been saying all these things since the beginning, Israel wouldn’t have dared to write that leaflet. But because our government ignored the propaganda war, many Lebanese are now put in an awkward position of finding their opinions voiced in a piece of paper thrown on us like dogs by Israel. Talk about adding insult to injury.

My Friend Jose-wales from Lebanonesque said it best in his comments on my previous post.

[Hezbollah] are framing the debate or lack thereof. Their opponents have to turn the tables around.
When they say "US slave", say "Iranian/Syrian slave".
When they say "resistance" say "sovereignty and security of the people and nation".
They say "Shebaa" tell em to go to Syria and get us the paper work.
When they say "fight Israel", say "open the Golan front".
Better yet, say those things before they open their mouths. Let them respond, put them on the defensive.

I hope it's not too late now. Hezbollah has pre-empted us , no matter what we now say, they'll say that we're talking like Israel!

Wisdom or Laxity?

Does Hariri-style centrism work?


Yesterday, In the ceremony of unveiling a statue of our “Independence President” Bshara el Khoury, P.M. Seniora made a speech in which he said:

Our movement is one of action, action towards consensus and consent, towards the spirit of political compromise that was achieved by the great men of our independence

He further explained that this was the philosophy of the Late P.M Rafik Hariri, one of inclusion, not exclusion, of dialogue, not confrontation. In the end, P.M. Seniora concluded that our history taught us that Hariri’s kind of centrism is the only way Lebanon can be developed and built.

Contrast Seniora’s statement with what William Buckley, the godfather of today’s conservative America, wrote some time ago:

“Middle of the road qua middle of the road is politically, intellectually and morally repugnant,”

Mr. Buckley’s philosophy, faithfully carried out by Carl Rove today, is one of active polarization, of confrontation, of a never-ending tug-of-war, of pushing your agenda through by sticking to your guns.
Buckley’s way was the exact opposite of Hariri’s, yet it was so effective it changed the entire landscape in Washington, from one dominated by liberals, to one dominated by conservatives; The Economist has a nice way of putting it:

Throw a stone in Washington and you have a better than even chance of hitting a conservative intellectual. Switch on cable-television and you are lucky if you can escape seeing a conservative pundit.

In Lebanon today, our Prime Minister is trying to sell us the Hariri centrist line in a time where we need confrontation more than ever. It is unclear for instance, how talking with Hezbollah will disarm them, or talking to Aoun will convince him to let go of the presidency. Seniora seems even more benign than the late Hariri, because he’s older, speaks softer, looks more harmless and has a better poker face. But is centrism really the best way to go about politics in Lebanon?

Those who advocate dialogue always say that we are living in delicate times, that we have to avoid all kinds of adversity to be able to reach to safety.
Fine, but one should also remember that our wariness of adversity is exaggerated because of our long years of war. We have once been burnt so we’re now scared of getting close to anything that’s shiny because it might burn us. Whatever happened to “everything that doesn’t kill us is makes us stronger” or to the principle of democracy correcting itself?. Can’t our system handle any form of confrontation without having the specter of war hover over our heads?

The other argument for dialogue is that it actually gets popularity and it works.
A lot of people like to say that P.M. Hariri bought his popularity with money, but that’s untrue. Mr. Hariri was genuinely popular because of his perceived level-headedness and moderation. He managed to build the country by avoiding any form of confrontation with the Syrians. Besides, proponent say that if centrism didn't work, P.M. Seniora wouldn't be the one undergoing constant attack from all parties today (a sign that he's making a difference).

Some people even say that Hariri-Style moderation is just a mask for cold-blooded cunning. N’oula Nassif, an Annahar editorialist, said on a T.V. program today that Seniora is publicly pursuing dialogue with the President, but is privately satisfied that the lifeline he’s giving him is shielding him from complete isolation, which lets Lahhoud stay as a weak president and further strengthen the (Moslem) P.M’s power.

I personally haven’t made up my mind yet. I sometimes seethe with anger at Seniora’s inaction and bonté, only to realize a week later that it was the proper course to take. But Hezbollah keeps getting on my nerves, and I can’t see Seniora protecting my loved-ones from them.

Martyr Hariri talked till he dropped...literally. I wish Mr. Seniora could be a bit more firm.

Hezbollah Attacks Shebaa

If Syria wants to liberate her farms, she should do it herself.


Yet another round of pointless attacks by Hezbollah to ‘liberate’ the Shebaa Farms, which, according to the UN, is Syrian territory under Israeli occupation.

Hezbollah has always claimed that such attacks are based on “field considerations”, in other words, the political situation in Lebanon and Syria doesn’t have anything to do with them. Nonsense. The attacks always happen in very sensitive contexts, like for instance when a Lebanese Prime Minister is at an international donor conference.

But most Lebanese agree that Hezbollah is directed from outside. Syria and Iran to be specific. When Hezbollah attacked last year, Israel retaliated by striking Syrian targets, causing Hezbollah's Gun to fall silent for a long time. Israel learned that attacking Lebanese Electricity firms and infrastructure doesn’t stop Hezbollah, only attacking Damascus does so.

If Hezbollah’s real aim is to get the Shebaa farms back, it should support the border demarcation process instead of calling PM Seniora a traitor just for bringing it up.

All this on the eve of Independence Day. How ironic. Let’s watch and see how the political class reacts.

Our Blood-Soaked Independence

A picture released by Annahar today reminds us of how insolent our occupiers have always been. It shows Turkish officials posing for the camera, smirking, proud of having hanged freedom-loving Lebanese nationalists back then.


You can find the picture on Annahar's main page.

On The Lebanese Bloggosphere

This is to let you all know that I have done my first Lebanese Bloggosphere Summary in Global Voices Online

You can read it here; it included links to The Lebanese Bloggers, Lebanese Political Journal, Across The Bay, From Beirut To The Beltway, Abu Takla, Lebanonesque, Arch Memory, and to yours truly.

Please read it and give me your feedback if you have any. You can comment here if you think it should be just between us (like for instance if you think that the summary wasn’t good ;) ) , but if you wish to comment to the readers of GVO, you can do it under the summary over there.

Like I said before, if you’re a new Lebanese blogger please let me know you exist by emailing me at Mustapha at beirutspring dot com.

Next Sunday, I’ll be hopefully writing an introduction to the Lebanese Bloggosphere. All suggestions are welcome. Also, Bloggers, if you can add a GVO link to your website (like the one found here on the right), please do, we’d be most grateful.

The Frog and The Ox

Assem Quanso wants your attention. Pleeaaase...


One of Aesop's most famous fables is that of the Frog and the Ox.

A frog passes by a big ox one day, and notices that the ox completely ignores him.

The conceited frog decides to capture the attention of the uninterested ox, so he blows himself up and jumps in front of the ox’s eyes. The Ox still doesn’t notice him.

So the frog blows himself even more and jumps again in front of the ox. The ox remains totally unmoved.

The frog is now crazy with anger, so he blows himself so much that he explodes.

Everytime the Lebanese people ignores Assem Quanso (a Syrian puppet), he raises his rhetoric even more.

Just ignore him, he will self destruct.

Figuring Hezbollah Out

The Lebanese are from Mars. Are Hezbollah’s followers from Venus?


I come from the Northern port city of Tripoli. The only time I’ve ever been to the South was after the liberation in 2000, in the context of a “fun trip to the south”. Even when I studied in AUB, it so happened that I didn’t have any friends who come from anywhere south of Saida. In fact my family was so detached from the South that everytime I visited my good friend in Saida, my mom got concerned that I was getting too close to Israel.

In other words, I’m probably guilty of not having “felt” the resistance against the Israeli aggression. This is why I will never be able to really understand the climate from which Hezbollah has emerged, or the reason why its supporters still trust them more than they trust the Lebanese state or the international community.

But listening to various Hezbollah people demonize the United Nations with all what it stands for, call it the “so-called international community that is entirely under the control of the United States and Zionism”, mobilize the masses by sounding dramatically alarmist about an impending threat on Lebanon by “foreigners”, all this makes me question the moral grounds on which Hezbollah, and their supporters stand.

What do Hezbollah supporters want? Arab dignity? Islamic dignity? Resistance for the sake of it? Are they seriously going to destabilize Lebanon to defend Assef Shawkat and Co.?

How “isolated” are Hezbollah’s people from the general Lebanese consensus? Do they only watch Al-manar and Al-Jazeera, or do some of them read Lebanese newspapers, watch Almustaqbal, LBC or Al-Arabia ?

Does the “moderate” AMAL subscribe to the latest fiery statements by Hezbollah?

How much of Hezbollah’s goodwill is left with the national populace? Do they care about their popularity ratings? Are they authentically popular with their voters or are they surrounded by terrified yes-men?

This post is only about questions. I wish I had the answers.

A Complete Change of Perspective.

The Students Elections in Lebanese Universities are the sign of something big to come: a Lebanese political system based on two parties.


When analyzing the student elections of the American University of Beirut, a lot of fellow pundits and commentators felt a great deal of confusion and despair.
Lebanon Profile writes:

It is shocking to see the people who chanted with passion on behalf of 1559 a year ago now chant in support of Hezbollah.

One of his readers concurs:

I really hate this political marriage between Aoun and Hizbullah. Objectively they have nothing in common, i am pissed that Aoun is providing cover for Hizbullah

Even the mainstream media seems to be at awe with the new slogan: “Berri, Nassrallah, Rabieh w bass!”.

Where’s the catch? Why is Hezbollah allying with Aoun who publicly declares he’s for disarming them? Is it really just a tactical alliance of converging interests?
This post is going to argue that in fact, politics has nothing to do with this; Aoun and Hezbollah have more "objective common grounds" than a lot of people suspect.

Why don’t we shift our paradigm and try looking at the issue from a totally different perspective? A perspective that is nevertheless the most essential factor in most democracies: The Economy.

If we do so, suddenly a lot of things start making sense and we can stop reading too much into things and reach ridiculous political conclusions (like for example that Aoun is allying with Syria to destabilize Lebanon)

In fact, this is not a battle between the Pro-Syrians and the Anti Syrians, This is very much a battle between the proletariat and the bourgeois, the people versus the elite, the left versus the right, the Socialists versus the Conservatives. Let’s look closely at the two groups competing in AUB, with their Lebanese constituents (outside AUB) in our mind.

On one hand, you have wealthy traders (Sunnis) allying with generally wealthy land-owning Christians and Druze. They want pro-market policies, flexible labor laws and pro-business policies. They want a good relationship with the outside world because it represents opportunity, a new market. Those people are generally well educated and soft-spoken. Perhaps the most symbolic outcome of AUB’s elections is the fact that the conservative alliance won 14 out of 14 seats in the Business school

On the other hand, you have soldiers, farmers, and poor laborers who want totally different things: they want government hand-outs (like diesel) and labor protection laws. They are generally skeptical of business, they speak more of corruption and less of markets. They look to the outside world as a threat: cheaper labor and cheaper agricultural produce that will threaten their jobs/crops. Those people are noisy and aggressive because their whole livelihood is at steak. Remember, Aounists always wanted to protect the Lebanese farmer (although the reason given at the time was to counter Syrian produce). This also explains the popularity of the Aounists in places like Akkar and Bequaa.

Of course, there exists a lot of non-economic factors at play (Syria's role and sectarianism), but one could argue that it is safe to look at the economy as the most potent force behind political dynamics. This is a world view that still has its skeptics (France), but one that is nevertheless the backbone of our world of today.

In my opinion, the AUB’s elections should be a cause for celebration. The sectarian lines are being blurred by the economy, but no one wants to admit it.

The logical endings

Two previous posts by The Beirut Spring deserve follow-ups:

1-In "How To Squeeze A Regime”, I mentioned that Syria is being pressured from the east, south and west. Today, the North, Turkey, has joined the fray to try to convince the Syrian President to cooperate with Inspector Mehlis.

2-In “The Aoun Challenge”, I had suggested that Gebran Bassil take Almustaqbal columnist Nasseer el Ass’ad to court and this is precisely what will apparently happen.
Also in the same post, the debate concluded that Ass’ad shouldn’t criticize Aoun and Ignore Hezbollah. As if Ass’ad had read the posts, he wrote a scathing criticism of Hezbollah today.

Let's hope tomorrow i can also say: "I told you so" regarding Tishreen's worthless threats.

Worthless Threats

A lot has been made of the Syrian-inspired “Diesel demonstrations” that will allegedly rock Beirut on Thursday, and perhaps topple Seniora’s government. This blogger predicts that such demonstrations will fail miserably.


When a Syrian newspaper calls for a demonstration to take place in Lebanon, with the intent of causing mayhem, a lot of Lebanese people automatically feel their stomachs twirl. How can they not? One should only go back to March 8 where Hezbollah gathered around 800,000 people to “thank Syria”, to realize that Syria can indeed mobilize a lot of people (who have arms) to jeopardize our fragile stability.

But our fear is mostly based on bad past experiences, not on rational thinking: The demo in question will be so weak it might have to be cancelled due to “bad weather” (to recall Omar Karami’s famous cancellation of the Tripoli Pro-Syrian demos back in early March)

There are many reasons why one should not be afraid. For example, back in March, the borders between Lebanon and Syria were too lose to be controlled. Busloads of Syrians were hauled in on March 8 to give Nassrallah’s crowd its beef. Today, as Annahar reports (via Tayyar) the Syrian-Lebanese borders have been under constant monitoring for two months.

The other reason why we should relax is political: The unpredictable Michel Aoun, whom the Syrians rely on to 'power' the demos, might pull the same trick as the one he pulled on President Lahhoud, where he cancelled a widely publicized meeting at the last minute and embarrassed the President. The fact that he is in the US right now makes this even more probable.

Even on the Hezbollah front. One could sense that they're not as die-hard pro-Syrian as their image conveys. Hezbollah assigned Naim kassem to echo Bashar’s speech in Lebanon, while Hassan Nassrallah himself would have been the more logical person to do so (it was the Syrian President that spoke after all). I personally suspect that Hezbollah is puffing its chest just for negotiation purposes and is smarter than following the suicidal policies of Bashar.
Moreover, P.M Seniora has aborted Hezbollah's plans to demonstrate over diesel prices by assigning their own minister to come up with a solution.

The Level of Syrian influence on Lebanese politicians is dwindling quickly; all you have to do is read the Tishreen article to see the kind of people who are supporting Mr. Assad these days: Omar Karami, Zaher el Khatib, Salim el hoss; people who can’t get their own mothers to vote for them, let alone mobilize masses of people to destabilize a country. It's a golden rule, nobody follows the losers.

We should all remember that March 14 was a reaction to March 8; this is why the pro-Syrians will think twice before going down to the street, lest they be humiliated again in the numbers game. The Syrians have also lost their control of the Lebanese security apparatus, and the Army would not let a social demo turn into anything other than that.

The Aoun Challenge

The debate about whether Michel Aoun should become President or not raises a fundamental issue in our democracy: In our political culture, what should constitute a red line? When is it that a political discourse becomes un-acceptable?


Today, columnist Nassir el Assad writes a very “below the belt” criticism of the opposition leader M.P Michel Aoun. This shouldn’t be allowed to pass, Mr. Assaad’s article is preposterous and it embodies what I would consider un-acceptable journalism.

Mr. Assad accuses Aoun of conspiring with Syria to destabilize Lebanon, but he couldn’t present any piece of evidence except valueless “knowledgeable sources”. He can’t just simply state that Mr. Gebran Bassil, Aoun’s son in law has been secretly meeting with the Syrian president to find ways to destabilize Lebanon. These are dangerous allegations that must be substantiated. In a real Democracy, Mr. Assad should be taken to court to reveal his sources.

Assaad went on to ridicule Aoun’s participation in a demonstration against fuel price hikes. He emasculates it and calls it a gambit to destabilize Lebanon even further, so that Aoun could become President. Again, nonsense; Aoun is exercising his constitutional political right to demonstrate. And the demonstrators in question are at the core of Mr. Aoun’s populist political platform.

On the other hand, Mr. Assaad doesn’t mind polishing over Jumblatt’s relationship with Hezbollah and Amal, who, in my opinion, have made a huge and documented sin which I would consider much more un-acceptable than anything Aoun has done (until proven otherwise). They refused to stand by the Prime Minister when he was criticized by a foreign leader.

Mr. Aoun might disagree with Mr. Seniora on everything, but he still knows that it is un-acceptable that you remain silent while one of your countrymen is attacked by foreigners.

I might not agree with Michel Aoun, I might not like to see him as my President, but that doesn't mean that I support Nassir Al Assad's irresponsible journalism.

(Warning, spirited debate in comments section)

How To Squeeze A Regime

The world is slowly setting the noose around Syria’s neck


Right after the Syrians decided to play hard-ball with the international community, they got simultaneous bad news from three of their neighbors:

1- From the west, in Lebanon, it was reported that Mehlis refused to interview the 6 Syrian officials outside of Lebanon, effectively throwing away the Syrian proposals for a venue change.

2- From the east, the Iraqi defense minister (who once called Syrian regional policies terrorist policies), Slams Syria for letting fighters train on its soil and use its borders to go to Iraq. Mr. Dulaimi’s statement where made after visiting the king of Jordan to present his condolences.

3- speaking of Jordan. Something is fishy about this would-be fourth bomber who was “confessing” on TV. I have a feeling that she’ll “confess” that she was trained and armed in Syria.

It's too early to call checkmate, but we’re just a few moves away from there.

Update: The Bliss Street Journal agrees that Jordan is another front against Syria.

In a statement al-Dulaimi remarked that Syria not only allows for the transit of foreign fighters into Iraq through Syria, but permits the existence of terrorist training camps on its territory. In the highly scripted world of contemporary international politics, the context of a meeting like this takes on meanings well beyond what was said. The timing, the location, the participants, and the fact that "Syria" and terrorism" were mentioned at the same time means more than just the fact that Iraq is concerned about terrorism and wants to tell Jordan all about it. More importantly, this was a discussion about the causes of terrorism in the region, and it seems that even without some kind of direct linkage between the Jordan hotel bombings and Syrian support, Iraq and Jordan seem prepared to accuse Syria already. So, look for a public revelation of Syrian involvement in the hotel bombings very soon. After all, Iraq already blames Syria for lots of things, and Jordanians want to believe more than anything that this kind of stuff does not originate in Jordan. Syria's isolation continues to worsen...

Cooperation Syria Style

The Syrians have begun playing their dangerous game


“Syria will cooperate fully with the international committee headed by Mehlis, and we have no reservations, except for the [preservation] of Syria's sovereignty”

This is how Faruq Al Shara’, Syria’s Foreign Minister, effectively told the world that they reject having their 6 officials interviewed in Lebanon, as Mr. Mehlis, the UN investigator, had demanded.

Mr. Shara’a apparently cares about Lebanon so much that he’s afraid that such interviews would divide the Lebanese into two camps: The supporters of P.M. Seniora and the supporters of Assef Shawkat (The Syrian President’s brother in Law who’s one of the suspects). In this brilliant scenario, this would cause civil unrest which could lead to another civil war. Something the very sensitive Mr. Shara’a is keen on avoiding. This is why he suggested other venues for the interviews, “neutral” places like Egypt, Vienna, Geneva or even Syria itself.

Legally, the Syrians are in no position to make demands. UNSCR 1636 is perfectly clear: The Burden of Cooperation is on Syria and theoretically, even if Mehlis asked the 6 to be interviewed in Washington, they should not complain. But this being Syria, Mr. Assad wants to see how much he can push the international community to act over “trivialities”. The international community could play along to show that it is not punishing Syria over a “silly” matter, but the venue is indeed important.

The chatter in Lebanon is that Mr. Mehlis wants the 6 suspects to face some Lebanese figures and cross-investigate them. Lebanon is the crime scene and it would be absurd to move all the people, equipment and evidence to a far place. This would be a huge waste of time and the Syrians know it. They just love playing for time.

An Even Louder Cock?

Something is stirring in the mind of Gebran Tueni.


“Perhaps the most illuminating rejection of Assad's intransigence has come from Gebran Tueni, one of the leaders of the March 14 anti-Syrian revolt touched off by Hariri's assassination, who labeled Assad's speech as an outright declaration of war against the new Lebanon.”

This was how Naharnet, until recently the most widely read Lebanese news website, described its owner’s political grandstanding.

Rumors are swirling around Mr. Tueni’s intention to form a new political party for “March 14’s youth”. Signs are everywhere that he’s preparing the grounds for such a move: From his March 14 speech that sounded like a manifesto, to his daily let’s-be-one-big-Moslem-and-Christian-family rhetoric.
His own Annhar's Mulhak al Shabab discussed something of the sort a few weeks ago, and his personal website lives on long after the elections are over, as a separate entity where MP Tueni regularly explains his vision.

So who will take care of Annahar once Mr. Tueni gets too busy building a party?
Naharnet, as usual, gave us a not-so-subtle clue: Neyla Tueni, Gebran’s young and attractive daughter, is apparently “the first in-line to An Nahar's throne”

To Open Lebanon Users

This is just to remind you that two very good Lebanon-affairs blogs are up and running but are (currently) not appearing on the Open Lebanon updates.

Doha and Raja, friends and star writers of The Lebanese Bloggers have changed the URL of their blog to http://lebanesebloggers.blogspot.com (they added an "s" to the end)
Raja wrote recently on how much he's upset about the Jordan bombings, and Doha reacted to Assad's speech.

Another great Lebanon blogger is Unfrozen Caveman Linguist, A pioneer blogger who was the first to introduce The Beirut Spring to the world. He wrote a popular blog called Caveman in Beirut which later changed into Caveman in Limbo. He's now writing fairly regularly in Bliss Street Journal, The Blog.
He also recently commented on Assad's speech.

For those of you who don't know about Open Lebanon, it's a website that has live tracking of what various Lebanese Bloggers have to say.

The Case for Optimism

On second thought, the News are not all that bad.


After yesterday’s unfortunate speech by president Assad of Syria, we all got carried away in various moments of anger and drama. A quick look at the comments in my previous two posts gives a general idea of the mood in Lebanon.
But our instantaneous emotions aside, Mr. Assad's speech shouldn’t get more credit than it deserves, lest the Syrian president think he can actually brake our back with a few words he utters.

Most of us were too blinded by disgust to have the BBC’s emotionless assessment that the Syrian president declared that he’s going to cooperate with the investigation. In retrospect, Mr. Assad was simply panicked, The Daily Star’s editorial scoffed at the “predictable” “reflex response of an injured regime”. Mr. Assad is simply trying to sink everyone with him by scaring us into pessimism. If we get scared, he wins.

But through the darkness of Mr. Assad’s words, shine those of our wise Mr. Seniora, who refused to sink into Assad's low-level rhetoric:

"I would like to address all the Lebanese inside Lebanon and abroad, and all the Arabs that the will of Lebanon and the Lebanese to hold on to a life of independence, freedom, democracy, and sovereignty will remain [unshaken]. Lebanon will remain committed to being part of the Arab nation and its causes, and its identity regardless of what has been and is being said. Lebanon is Arab, independent, sovereign, free, and democratic, and the unity of the Lebanese is the basis. Lebanon will remain attached to these values and will remain open to all cultures, first and foremost to the French culture."

Mr. Seniora was not being foolishly optimistic. Although the noises of doom and gloom from neighboring Syria are very high-pitched, the most eloquent of all indicators of optimism has spoken: The Beirut stock exchange has risen about 2 points because of strong results from Solidere, BLOM and Byblos Bank (the latter two might have benefited from Syrian capital influx since Mehlis released his report). The notoriously coward capital apparently still likes to call Lebanon home.

Lebanon is also making new friends. Yesterday, Mr. Seniora got a call in mid cabinet session from the King of Jordan, who seems to be losing patience with Assad (not a single word of condemnation for the Amman bombing in Mr. Assad’s speech). It was noteworthy how Mr. Aridi, the government spokesperson, referred to Jordan as “the brother”, Al Urdun al-shakik, an expression used almost exclusively in the past in reference to Syria.

In short, let’s not fall into Bashar’s trap. Things are looking good after all.

For History

The Syrian President insults the Lebanese people

Assad’s Speech

The Syrian President has chosen the path of confrontation.


It’s amazing to see those words come out of Bashar’s mouth. The man seems to really believe the nonsense he’s uttering.

Seriously though, things are not looking good at all. As Bashar asks his “friends in Lebanon” to foil “the Zionist plot”, calls our Prime Minister “the stooge of a stooge”, Mehlis secretly leaves Beirut at dawn and the Americans are warning their citizens to stay away from an “unsettled Lebanon”.

What do you make of Bashar’s speech(Arabic)(English)?
Are you confident of things to come?

Update: Joshua Landis has an excellent point-by-point English Translation of Assad's speech. Landis also has reactions from Syria and from his own family.

Update2: You can listen to Bashar's speech in Arabic via Alhurra:
Windows Media Player | Real Player

The Petition

The "We Trust Mehlis" Petition is now available online. Everyone who believes that Detlev Mehlis is doing a good job should sign it. Tell your friends, your family, post it on your blog/website and encourage your readers to sign it. do whatever you can to let our opinion out. We cannot allow credibility of this man to be tarnished.

Perhaps this latest poll by Aljazeera will get you started:


This is the text of the Petition:

To: International and Arab Media Outlets
We, the undersigned, are noticing with increasing dismay the willingness of various media outlets to propagate the contemptible policy of discrediting Mr. Detlev Mehlis, the German Prosecutor in charge of finding the truth about the Hariri assassination.

We are listening with horror as different groups are trying to cast doubts on his impartiality and on his general integrity.

We have seen how Mr. Mehlis works and we trust that he’s doing a great job; we admire his professionalism and we sincerely thank him for his valuable time.

Sincerely,
The Undersigned

Can Tarek Mitri Save the Lebanese Book Industry?

Culture Minister Tarek Mitry has some good ideas and some bad ones on the state of reading in Lebanon and how to fix it.


Yesterday, Mr. Mitry announced in the seminar of "Consultations for Drafting a Policy for Books and Reading in Lebanon" what he thinks was the problem with the Lebanese book industry: the "rise of competition in Arab countries and weak support from the state."

That sounds Alarmingly like the French notion of “cultural exceptionalism”, a strange belief that the taxpayer should pay money to encourage the production of movies nobody wants to watch and books nobody wants to read. The cultural industry, like all others, strives on competition and it would be silly to make imported books more expensive just so that we be patriotic and read mediocre wrote-in-Lebanon books.

If that is what Mr. Mitri is planning to do, then the seminar’s declared aims of restoring Beirut's position as the "capital of Arabic books" and building “bridges between Arabic culture and the cultures of the world" sound hollow at best.

When I was a kid, I used to love reading Rajol Al Mustaheel (The Man of the Impossible), a quality Egyptian mini-series about a James-bond-like character. I would have been really upset if my government had coaxed me into reading some cheap Lebanese copy-cat.

But not all Mr. Mitri’s ideas are bad; his proposals for enforcing copyright protection, introducing the ISBN standard and opening regional public libraries are all very ambitious and noteworthy (if followed through).

But Mr. Mitri, Please don’t spoil our writers, let them shape up or die. The Lebanese readers would be very thankful.