Polls Apart

Two clashing polls try to probe that elusive "Christian public opinion" in Metn.

First came the poll conducted by IPSOSTAT, a respectable polling organization, which concluded after calling a sample of 1000 metnis, that 60% of the voters would like to fill the position vacated by the death of MP Pierre Gemayel by another Kataeb member like his father Amine for instance, with only 32% giving their votes to Aoun's FPM.

The results didn't offend the Aounists. After all, many FPM supporters were courteous enough to give the seat back to the Gemayels after having their heir viciously murdered. Ghassan Tweini had started a precedent by consensually "inheriting" his murdered son's seat.

The problems only started later when March14 media started using the findings to insinuate that the FPM is losing popular support among Christians. Witness how, for instance, an LF blogger jumped at the IPSOSTAT findings.

This is where the FPM decided to reclaim its crown as the most popular party with the Christians by commissioning its own Poll. The poll, conducted by Feghali Polling, had a different wording than that of IPSOSTAT: "Which party is closest to you and represents you best politically today?"

The results are proudly posted on the Tayyar's main page: The Aounists and their allies got 67.9%, while the Kataeb and their allies got 25.7%

Found In Tripoli, Lebanon

An obituary making the walls in the Northern port city of Tripoli mourns the death of a "martyr"


Mourners should head to the House of Mr. Majeed Al Rafii, a respectable elderly Northern figure who allied himself with Saddam in the old days.

What's noteworthy is that Mr. Rafii ran in the last parliamentary elections in the pro-syrian electoral list(it included Sleimen Franjiyeh and Omar Karami). He is believed to be the reason why many Sunnis voted for that list (which eventually lost).

Cash Is Green Too

An anti-government demonstrator has won a $2,000,000 lottery prize.

As cheerful as he gets

Saeed Youssef Al Harbieh woke up one morning in one of the many freezing opposition tents in central Beirut. While he's sipping hot coffee, he read in the newspaper that the winning lottery combination matches his own ticket.

The ecstatic winner partied with his tent-mates and then headed straight back to his native Zgharta to celebrate with friends and family.

Mr. Al Harbieh told Assafir that his family of six can hardly make ends meet, so the prize came as a much needed windfall.

He promised that he will go back to the protest camp. I think he won't.
Any bets?

J'accuse

Walid Jumblat accused Hezbollah for the first time of being part of the assassinations. Was this a tactical move or an emotional outburst?

Did you hear the one where Hezbollah killed Hariri?

What was obvious from Mr. Jumblat's body language is that he was nervous and angry. The statement was made in an atmosphere of renewed tension between his PSP party and Hezbollah, where Minister Marwan Hmedeh who is very close to Jumblat, accused the Almanar TV station of and sued it for inciting his assassination (Mr. Hmedeh has already been subject of a failed assassination attempt)

What's notable is that Hariri's Almustaqbal newspaper, which usually cheerleads Jumblat's hardline stances, has completely ignored Hezbollah's part of Jumblat's speech and chose instead to focus its headlines on the part where Jumblat accuses president Assad of Syria of being a liar. Could Hariri, who quietly slipped to Saudi Arabia this morning, be distancing himself from Jumblat's statements?

Hezbollah denied Jumblat's accusations and said he doesn't have any evidence to support them. Al-Akhbar, a newspaper close to Hezbollah, wrote that Jumblat's hardline position was designed to sabotage a new initiative by speaker Nabih Berri, an initiative the newspaper claims to be coordinated with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, where a government of 3 March14 Ministers, 3 opposition Ministers and 4 neutral ones would oversee new elections and arrange for the Paris 3 donors' conference.

Jumblat, who has a history of sabotaging Arab initiatives designed to co-opt Syria, might be playing America's role in Lebanon by refusing fudge solutions that put brotherhood and cooperation ahead of justice and accountability.

Some Items

* If I had a Lira for every time Al-Akhbar Newspaper headlines that the opposition has a "surprise" up its sleeves, I'd be able to buy me a man2oushé. Still, can't blame the pro-Hezbollah newspaper for trying.

* Sanioura exposes another hard edge of March 14: If they close the airport's road, "what guarantees that our supporters won't close the ne3mé road to the South?". Ne3mé is a main artery to the Hezbollah South. (from Assafir)

* Nabih Berri shows an ankle of his alleged initiative (Albalad):
- The Hariri Tribunal is not sacred. The draft should be modified by the Lebanese government and signed by the President before it is sent to the UN.
-the opposition picks the kingpin minister in the 19-10-1 formation, but March 14 has to agree on him/her
-Go back to the 7iwar table to talk and talk and talk...

Disarming The Opposition

The magic words that could help dry the opposition of large popular support.

They're not all bad people

As a supporter of the March 14 independence movement, I am convinced that Hezbollah's leadership is taking orders from Tehran, that Nabih Berri is threatened and that Sleimen Franjiyeh, Talal arselan and the SNPP would all do anything to get back to power.

But I am also convinced that many of the people who gathered on December 1st have genuine misgivings about the government's performance. The government shouldn't treat those people the same way it treats Iran's fifth column. It should instead try to deal with their problems

According to William Ury, a negotiation guru, one of the most important parts of a negotiation is to listen to your opponent and to acknowledge his point, without necessarily agreeing with it: (source)

Listening to someone may be the cheapest concession you can make [..] Every human being, no matter how impossible, has a deep need for recognition. [...] by letting him tell his side of the story and acknowledging it, you create a psychological room for him to know that there's another side of the story.

Throwing the labels "Iranian and Syrian" unfairly at some of the protesters will simply make them more defiant and rebellious.

Why can't Ahmad Fatfat apologize for smiling with Condi Rice while Lebanese children were being bombed, all the while insisting that this doesn't mean that Syria should get off the hook regarding its crimes in Lebanon?

Why can't Samir Geagea and Walid Jumblat say: "we have done terrible crimes in the past and we have been corrupt. We really regret those days, but for now it's time to look to the future because the very nature of Lebanon as a free society is endangered?"

Those words, if made in good faith, can placate a good chunk of the "legitimate" protesters and might start a genuine conversation. I tried this myself, and as you could see, the result was fascinating.

Of course, many of the opposition are more interested in power than in talking. What we'll do to those is simply deprive them of companionship.

For a good understanding of the crisis in Lebanon (Extensive background+proposed solutions), read this comprehensive report (pdf) from the International Crisis Group (Executive Summary here), released on December 21st. (Thanks Rich.)

If you have commentary on something you read in it, just paste the paragraph in the comments section and tell us what you think of it.

On another personal note. Sorry for the scarce posting, never knew wedding preparations were so time consuming..

Naounsence?

If you find Michel Aoun, the Lebanese Christian leader who's allied with Hezbollah, hard to understand, if he drives you crazy or if you have the urge to understand why his followers are following him, read this rather balanced piece about his ideas and alliances in the Los Angeles Times

Lebanese Public Opinion

Online data indicates that Lebanese public opinion might have started moving away from partisanship and back to the center.

The graphs below plot the online readerships of four selected Lebanese newspapers. They are in order:
Almustaqbal, a newspaper with a partisan March 14 perspective
Albalad, a newspaper with a rather balanced perspective
Al Akhbar, a newspaper with a partisan pro-Hezbollah perspective,
Annahar, a partisan March 14 newspaper with balanced reporting.

The second graph is a closeup to the last few days of the first graph. Also indicated are important events that might have spiked/reduced readerships.



Several conclusions can be made from the above graphs, but here are a few important ones I noticed:

1- A look at Al-akhbar's and Almustaqbal's graphs reveals that mobilization has peaked on December 1st and has since been losing steam.

2- A look at the graphs of Albalad and Annahar shows that after the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, people started abandoning "balanced" media for more extreme and partisan outlets.

3- And finally, the above trend might have started to change. In the second graph, the last few days witnessed a spike in the readership of "balanced" media and a drop in that of the "extreme" media. This could be attributed to fatigue or to the Arab League mediation between Lebanese parties.

(Graphs powered by Alexa)

Let There Be Love

Those ubiquitous "I Love Life" billboards turned out to be a political teasing campaign on an unprecedented scale. But don't worry, the good stuff should be known by December 23rd.


Anyone who's been to Lebanon lately has seen them. They're literally everywhere; "I love Life", "J'aime la vie", "Ouhibbou l7ayat". A statement in three languages that would seem natural if it weren't for the huge display real estate money being poured on them.

The billboards have raised speculations among the Lebanese; they must have something to do with the March 14 independence movement. The colors and typography are a trademark of the Cedar revolution, and nowadays, "we want to live" and "we champion a culture of life" (as opposed to Hezbollah's supposed culture of death and martyrdom) are staples of the political discourse of March 14 politicians and literati.

But the precise objective of the campaign remains to be seen. I can say with a fair amount of certainty that the objective is not to convert suicide bombers into hedonists, so what is this all about?

One way to know for sure (and apparently to become an activist and spread the word), is to keep your eye on the I Love Life website.

But meanwhile, I wouldn't mind we engage in a little game of speculation. Any ideas on what this could be?

My personal guess is that this has something to do with the Anniversary of Rafik Hariri's assassination on Valentines day the upcoming February 14 (yes, the heart tipped me off). But I could be wrong. Any guesses?

Shocked By Your Shock

To Arabs and Muslims, what's most newsworthy about the Ahmadinajead Holocaust conference is the strong Western outrage.


The Economist called it "Ahmadinajead's strange version of History", the New York Times called it "a circus of Holocaust denial and racism argued by discredited scholars". Unfortunately to those oracles of Western opinion, the "strange version of history" is the only version that Arabs and Muslims know. To Muslims, "Holocaust denial" and "Anti Semitism" are not dangerous accusations. They're just strange words.

I didn't know about the Holocaust before the age of 20. And the only reason why I believe the Holocaust actually took place, is because I underwent six years of education at an American University, and because I have been reading The Economist and The New York Times for eight straight years. To the typical Arab on the street, that qualifies as brainwashing.

Being enraged won't help Western opinion leaders. The Iranians are riding Arab and Muslim public opinion to increase their influence in the region, and shouting names like "rogues and fools" changes nothing.

When Aljazeera covered Western reactions to the conference, the undertone was sarcastic. The leaders of the western world (Merkel, Bush and Blair all condemned the conference), they said, are busy defending old history but they don't care the least about Palestinian Children who are dying in "today's holocaust"

Coincidentally, the American Ex-President Jimmy Carter wrote a book that, you guessed it, caused a "furor" because he used the word "apartheid" in describing the situation in Palestine and Israel.

A letter to the New York Times responds to the uproar and sums up what I think is the best solution for limiting Iranian influence:

Anyone who dares speak up for the Palestinians in America is certain to be vilified. Wise friends of Israel know that the one hope of its survival is an equitable resolution of the Palestinian issue.

This requires withdrawal from all territories seized in 1967, reimbursing Palestinians for confiscated land and other wrongs, and the development of a viable Palestinian state.

In Search Of an SOB

Is Israel against democracy in Lebanon?

Raffi, a reader, wrote this comment on a previous post:

The Pro Senioura comments in Israeli newspapers mean to systematically undermine his authority , integrity and popularity. The worst thing that israel needs now is a PM like him , an educated popular PM who has excellent relations with both the West and Gulf countries. They need to strengthen Hezbollah and any of his Sunni allies because a free democratic prosperous Lebanon is not what they want. Both Hezbollah and Israel have a common goal so in the middle east even the worst enemies collude sometimes. Remember Iran gate , Syrian presence in Lebanon etc.... Thank God For Sanioura and Pray for Lebanon

Could anyone please contribute by checking out the Israeli newspapers and posting examples of such comments?

In Lebanon, a common theme with the March14 pundits is that Israel is itching for the return of Syria to Lebanon because Syria is perceived to provide stability and a leech on Hezbollah.

If that reflects the true thinking of the Israeli policy makers, that would indicate an unfortunate shortsightedness. A reactionary return to Baker-style "realism".

The Other Sanioura

By a twist of fate, the name of our Prime Minister is the same as that of a Lebanese sweet. This has caused an unexpected windfall to the sweets' makers.

Support the Lebanese government with coffee or with tea

If the Sanioura is not the top selling Lebanese sweet today, it is definitely up there. In the various large demos and festivals held to support the Lebanese Prime Minister, the Sanioura is the sweet of choice for distribution.

Lebanese sweet makers are working overtime to supply this cookies-like delicacy. Depending on your taste, you can buy the Sanioura online (a.k.a Ghouraibeh) here, here or here. They all ship internationally.

Hostage Of Her Religion

If you think that Hezbollah and Amal represent all the Lebanese Shiaas, think again.

Nisrin Yaghi, A Shiite who supports a "free, just and independent Lebanon" writes in the Daily star that she is taken hostage by her religion:

Many Lebanese Shiites [..] are bewildered by the position taken by both parties "officially" representing them. It is unconceivable that, under the pretext of religious righteousness, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are voluntarily obstructing the rebirth of a free, just and independent Lebanon.

She explains why she thinks this is the case:

I believe that most Shiites have fallen victims to the "Stockholm Syndrome." The population is not being held at gunpoint, but rather a financial and educational blackmail that has taken place for the past 15 years. The people have grown accustomed to being fully dependent on their party for economic survival, and have thus completely lost the ability to decide for themselves.

She concludes:

Salvation has to come from outside this corrupt circle, which claims to represent all Shiites, as if God and divinity were enough to blindfold us and lead us like cattle to the alter to be slaughtered.

An independent Shiite force has to emerge, blended with independent free spirits of all sects. This is our only true salvation.

I call on all Lebanese to take a stand and make their voice heard. This country is tired of demonstrations and confrontations. So make your voices heard and organize workshops for people to speak their mind without intimidation.

And, for God's sake, leave God out of it!

As anyone who reads Abu Kais (A fiery Shiite pro March14 blogger) knows, Nisreen is not an aberration. It remains to be seen whether the current events empower people like Nisreen or weaken them.

The Great Miscalculation

Hassan Nassrallah's opposition will fail because of one grave error: The misreading of the Sunni public opinion.

Omar Karami was supposed to show up and make a speech on December 10, but he didn't. Not even Karami wants to be the "Clean, nationalist honest Sunni with integrity" that Nassrallah had promised will lead the next government.

But still, the opposition dug and dug, and the only Sunni they could find was an obscure Fathi Yakan, a northern figure so marginal that even his neighbors hardly knew existed.

Nassrallah is stuck: the Sunnis won't play ball. What's the deal? What's with all those angry people in Tripoli? Where are Hoss? Mikati and Solh?

I talked about this before, but it's too important to be said just once: When it comes to the Sunnis, Hassan Nassrallah seems pathetically clueless. By his calculation, the anti American, anti zionist rhetoric should at least have split the Sunnis. It worked with Aljazeera's Sunni Arab readers, why isn't it working with the Lebanese?

Why are Mikati, Karami and Hoss all calling for resolving the matter away from the streets? Why is the mufti declaring that toppling the Prime Minister is a red line?

I don't have a real answer, but I'll venture some suggestions:

Perhaps because a Christian leader, who only months ago declared that he would not allow the President to be brought down in protests, screamed from a podium to hundreds of thousands of Shiaas and a handful of Christians that he would "sack" our prime minister and replace him with another Sunni?

Or is it perhaps because the Shiaa leaders are condescendingly promising the Sunnis that they would "take good care of them and put them in their hearts" once they usurp power?

Or maybe because they are protecting the killers of the most prominent Lebanese Prime Minister in Lebanon's recent memory?

As any visitor to the North, Beirut or Saida can attest, Saniora is no longer a prime minister, he has become a symbol.

As my cousin puts it: "I always hated the Hariris, but this is no longer about a party or a group. This is an attack against all of us, and for now, we are all Saniouras"

Too bad for Nassrallah.
Perhaps you could find us a prime Minister in Syria?

**Update**
Even Fathi Yakan has abandoned the lets-overthrow-Saniora Camp. He has just released a statement criticizing some of the opposition figures (Aoun) for "not consulting with their opposition partners" before making "unilateral" statements about overthrowing the government, conquering the Serail or forming a second government. He also said that the Premiership is a red line.

Tripoli Demo Pics

I went to the pro-government demo in Tripoli yesterday (which was a stone-throw from my house). I've never seen anything that large and boisterous in this otherwise sleepy city. Here are some pics (Click for larger images).

Most apartments in Tripoli have flags on their balconies:


The view from my place:(I recommend you click on it)


The view from my parents' place: (I recommend you click on it)


Some details(the covered road and the Syrian dummy):



The day ended in peace.

Starting On The Wrong Foot

How France24, France's new CNN, screwed it up with this blogger's first impression.


I was looking forward to it: The launch of France24, the international 24-hour news TV station that promises to present a more nuanced view of the world, with a special sensitivity to how people themselves see the news, as opposed to how politicians do.

Since they're embracing new media, they launched a worldwide publicity blitz by sending exclusive content to bloggers like myself. To juice up their offer, the station sent us "surprise" packages so that we could celebrate together the big launching night.

As I opened my package today, I was disappointed.

The gift was very valuable and I'm very thankful, but it also has something to say about the sender.

The station which promises not to project its own values on peoples has sent me, a practicing Muslim, a Möet&Chandon bottle of champaign (which I had to pay tariff for, but that's another story).

Suddenly, the assertion on page 1 of their brochure, that "France 24 is characterized by respect for diversity and attention to political and cultural differences and identities" rang hollow in my mind. The question is, does it really make a difference if it starts broadcasting in Arabic soon?

It doesn't matter whether I personally drink alcohol or not, what matters is that France24 still has a lot of homework to do if it wants to see the world using other peoples' eyes.

Guerrillas Guerrilla'd

How Hezbollah is losing the internal war.

I see trouble

One of war's most durable lessons is that when your enemies change, your tactics have to change. Too bad Hassan Nassralah didn't heed that aphorism. In fact, on the Lebanese stage, a large, strong and highly organized Hezbollah is finding itself in the awkward position of fighting smaller, faster, and nimbler opponents.

In a conventional war, large armies rely on overwhelming attacks with big weapons and complex logistics. This makes them slow and inefficient, and creates openings for faster guerrillas to attack and run. The army gets angry and sends even larger weapons, while the guerrillas just hide and wait for another opportunity to scratch their mighty opponent. At the end, the enemy dies of a thousand small cuts and runs away.

This is the story of Hezbollah and Israel. But it's also the story of Hezbollah and March 14, with a stunning reversal of roles. In the internal Lebanese war, Hezbollah is so ill-prepared that it is actually acting like the very enemies he defeated.

Like the Israelis and Americans threaten mayhem (or Shock and Awe) before any assault, Hezbollah threatened a march that will swiftly transform the Lebanese political scene: On December 1st, Hezbollah assembled its large and organized army of demonstrators, which marched with impeccable precision to conquer the enemy's fortress.

But like true guerrilla fighters, March 14 loyalists just hid in their holes, and waited for the behemoth to release all its bottled-up energy. The Shiite-dominated opposition was taken aback by the utter lack of resistance but just kept screaming their lungs away anyway.

But then, as they became tired and bored, a jolt of energy has suddenly struck their opponents. Large demonstrations here and there supporting the government, biting commentaries from left and right about how the resistance forgot Israel and now wants to "liberate" Beirut. The Sunnis seeing right through Nassrallah's "non secterianism" claims and bogus anti-American rhetoric, diplomats asking for the return to talks...

But Sanioura stays on and March 14 is winning by not losing... In Nassrallah's logic, that would qualify as a divine victory.

With this background, it is easy to understand why Hassan Nassrallah became a diminished figure, screaming an inconsistent speech full of name-calling and empty of reason.

You would also understand the secret of Sanioura's confident smile and calm demeanor, coupled with an acerbic and ridiculing reply.

Just in case you haven't read these articles by my fellow bloggers/friends Abu Kais and Tony, I seriously recommend you do.

Bargaining Chip No More?

The Baker-Hamilton commission also known as the Iraq Study Group (ISG) will recommend that Lebanon be kept out of the bargaining between the US and Syria and Iran.

An-American official who "co-drafted" the report has leaked to An-nahar, Lebanon's best selling newspaper, that the commission will recommend the implementations of UNR 1559 and 1701, which demand the disarming of Hezbollah and consider the Lahhoud Presidency unconstitutional. The ISG will also recommend continuing the UN investigations into the various political assassinations that shook this country.

According to the Source, the report will stress the importance of Lebanon's independence and sovereignty.

It is still unclear whether Lebanon's independence is one of the strategic objectives of the report, or whether the tough talking is simply a way of strengthening the American bargaining position before the negotiations actually begin.

In Lebanon

The two trips I made to Lebanon this year were scheduled a long time ago. They were both meant to be celebrations of important events in my life (engagement, wedding). But somehow, they both coincided with tragic events in my country.

After I landed in the Rafic Hariri International Airport, I immediately got a taste of the action; I was driving from the Airport and I noticed unusual activity on the road. Of course, I dismissed it thinking: well, this is Lebanon, stuff happen.

Little did I know that if my plane landed only 30 minutes later, I would have been stuck for hours on the road. The protesters blocked the Airport road just a few minutes after I crossed it (the army dispersed the protesters later).

That reminded me of the Maameltein bridge. That bridge was bombed just a day after I crossed it.

I must be leaving a trail of disaster behind me wherever I go, but what matters for now, is that I'm home.

The posting won't be as zealous as usual (now I have a woman on hand ;) ), so please bare with me for these couple of life-transforming months.

Ready For Take off

Plenty of time to reflect, I'll be back with you tomorrow nshalla..

Post Removed

The post that was taking this space was removed because its inappropriate after a protester was killed in Beirut.

Tripoli Is Boiling

Various eyewitnesses told me that tens of thousands of protesters have filled the parking lot of the Tripoli International Fair (an area of around 20,000 square meters) in a show of support for the government. The witnesses described a huge forest of Lebanese flags and loud displays of fireworks and festive gun shots.

Tripoli, which is predominantly Sunni, is Lebanon's second largest city. The Protesters were waving Lebanese flags and pictures of the Prime Minister Sanioura and of parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri. Similar news are coming from Almoon, Minieh, Akkar and Dinnyeh, all Sunni areas in Northern Lebanon.

Hariri has called for calm via Future TV.

Whether or not the intention of the demonstrators on December 1st was to provoke the Sunnis, It seems this is how it is being perceived by the Sunnis themselves.

It is worth noting that the opposition's proposed Prime Minister, Pro-Syria Omar Karami, is from Tripoli.

For The Love Of Lebanon

Thousands of people have descended to Beirut. Is this the counter-demonstration everyone is talking about?


Well not really, these are just the runners in the Beirut Marathon. Fellow blogger N10452 ran the entire 10kms and took pictures. Find them here.

Sunday Lebanon Reading

Can't get enough of Lebanon reading material? here's a selection of stuff I read and liked:


-Katherin Zoepf for the NY Times, "A Diva Brightens a Dark Time in Beirut"
-Anthony Shadid for MSNBC, "In Beirut, signs of Lebanon's growing fault lines"

Below are pieces I read but didn't like:

-Time Magazine, "Losing Lebanon"
-Jerusalem Post: "Lebanon doesn't Need our Help"

Tripoli At Night

Pro-Government protests in the northern (Sunni) city of Tripoli, Lebanon's second largest. (Thx M.)


More can be found here.

(PS: If you have images you think people should see, please email them to me)

Mass Vs. Mass

It turns out that there will be another Mass today in the Grand Seraille..[Annahar]

Yellow coup..

...Orange Fig-leaf.


Read more from Tony, Abu Kais, and Charles.