The Whiny Appeasers

Are we witnessing the decline of the March 14 alliance?

I have a theory: The cold, calculating Machiavelli in the Hariri camp was killed with Rafiq Hariri. Whether it was Hariri himself or one of his advisors, it seems he died in that explosion.

Yet again, the “Anti-Syria” Ministers have staged a walk-out after a loud ministerial session. Yet again, insults have been hurled by the pack on a thick-skinned President Lahhoud. A lot of bravado but no results. Despite Hariri’s claims that “the matter of the Presidency will be solved soon”, I can’t see Lahhoud leaving office.

What I’m seeing instead is Hariri shrinking in stature and Lahhoud and Hezbollah getting bolder and closer. The more Hariri appeases, apologizes, and explains, The More Nassrallah threatens of cutting off hands and heads.

The Arabs were obviously behind Lahhoud, why did Seniora go through the humiliation of being shushed in public? Why did he allow himself to be scolded by Nabih Berri who spoke so self-righteously about the “sanctity” of the resistance and how “disappointed” he was from Seniora, that he refused to listen to Seniora’s response? Mr. Seniora, your niceness is starting to look like weakness.

Never did the March 14 people appear so insecure, feeble and directionless. Get yourself together damn-it! Mr. Hariri, your father learned the hard way that you can’t appease forever. Unify with your partners, find an effective, sellable strategy. Try to divide and conquer; would Hezbollah accept a Aoun Presidency? Food for your thought..

**Update**
Read also Abu Kais' take on the subject..

Do you miss Lebanon?

I just came across this great website.


You can find there a wonderful portrayal of Lebanon by photographer Pascal Beaudenon. Works best for people, like me, who live far away from our beloved country. My favorite thumbnails are numbers 6, 12, 48 and 51 (yes, I'm afraid you'll have to count)

Go through the links, you can buy the book "L'autre Liban" or the sets of postcards there. I swear, I wasn’t paid to write this, I just liked what I saw so much I’m sharing it with you :)

How does looking at those pictures make you feel?

Orange Flag

The Lebanese March 14 leaders should watch very carefully what's happening in the Ukraine


Just under a year ago, Vaclav Havel, Leader of the Czech revolution that toppled communism, saw the Lebanese intifada on March 14 and remembered his good ol’ revolutionary days. He rushed to address his Lebanese “friends” with passion and optimism:

Thanks to your resolve, discipline and confidence in the future, the death [of Hariri] has triggered off a process that nobody will stop now. By peaceful civic action you have managed to overcome not only fear and indifference, but also differences of opinion and religion, and to join hands for a better future.

Ahh, the glory of March 14. Fast forward a year later:

Mr. Havel writes a considerably less upbeat piece, published today in The Daily Star. The title says it all: “After revolutionary euphoria, make way for disillusion”. He writes:

All revolutions, in the end, turn from euphoria to disillusion. In a revolutionary atmosphere of solidarity and self-sacrifice, people tend to think that when their victory is complete, paradise on Earth is inevitable. Of course, paradise never comes, and - naturally - disappointment follows

Quite the change from the “process that nobody will stop now” don’t you think?

To be fair, Mr Havel wasn’t talking about Lebanon. He was commenting on Ukraine’s post revolution malaise. But that article serves as a stern reminder to the Lebanese that not all revolutions have happy endings. Just read Mr. Havel's article, replace “Ukraine” with “Lebanon”, “Russia” with “Syria” and “The European Union” with “The International Community” and you'll see why we have a reason for worrying.

What happened in Ukraine is the equivalent of Lebanon having a general elections where Hariri, Jumblat and the rest of the March 14 symbols all suffer great losses.

Jumblat is a keen reader of history, he cannot say he wasn’t warned.

Dominique De Lahhoud

The same thing that makes our President so despicable is what makes the French Prime Minister so admirable.


More than half of the population wants the leader to change his mind, yet he remains doggedly stubborn and is not budging an inch. The opposition is threatening to use the street in a gargantuan demonstration that would force the leader to acquiesce, but he is showing no signs of giving in.

The above statement applies both to President Emile Lahhoud of Lebanon, an unpopular President who is obstinately refusing to resign, and to the French Prime Minister, Dominique De Villepin, who is refusing to withdraw an unpopular labor bill that would make it easier to hire and fire young people under the age of 26, the CPE.

The Dilemma to me is the following: I want Dominique de Villepin to ignore all those protests because I sincerely believe he’s doing the right thing, whereas I want our President to resign because, well, he sucks. I'm sure there's a difference between acting in principle and being obstinate, don't you think?

Orange Mecanique..

Will a new TV station with a Aounist perspective be good or bad for Lebanon?


I read today a post by my friend Kais who all but thrashes OTV, the proposed TV station that will promulgate a Aounist world view to Lebanese audiences all over the world.
Kais is not exactly a fan as his post clearly shows, but the topic sparks a wider debate: How healthy is it for every party to have its own media outlets?

The classic democratic argument has always been one of laissez-faire. You basically let everyone say whatever they want, and the rational voter will then, after listening to all the points of view, make up her mind and let her choice be known in the ballot box. Neat isn’t it?

Unfortunately, as the Information age has shown us, we did’nt turn out to be homo-rationalus after all; we have our views of the world and we like to listen to what like-minded people have to say. In a landmark article in the New York Times, The Age of Political Segregation, David Brooks observes:

Once you've joined a side, the information age makes it easier for you to surround yourself with people like yourself. And if there is one thing we have learned over the past generation, it's that we are really into self-validation.

We don't only want radio programs and Web sites from members of our side -- we want to live near people like ourselves. Information age workers aren't tied down to a mine, a port or a factory. They have more opportunities to shop for a place to live, and they tend to cluster in places where people share their cultural aesthetic and, as it turns out, political values. So every place becomes more like itself, and the cultural divides between places become stark. The information age was supposed to make distance dead, but because of clustering, geography becomes more important.

David Brooks was writing about Liberal Vs. Conservative America, but as we all know, this applies very well to Lebanon. On the same topic, Cate Malek writes about the important concept of Escalation:

escalation is a psychological process that causes the parties involved in a conflict to use more and more extreme measures to try to "beat" their opponents. Escalation begins when one party believes the other party has deliberately provoked them. They retaliate, setting off a vicious cycle. As a conflict escalates, the disputants begin to stereotype each other. They cut off communication with the other side and begin to associate only with their own side. The lack of communication contributes to increased misunderstandings and distrust of the other side.

Was Kais escalating? Some people will say: No, Aoun’s TV will indeed be “…stinky for the country, which would have to deal with his toxic political waste matter, caused by a chronic diarrhea of the mouth.”

But now the other side will escalate in response, and now they have a TV station. So, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

How Do You Say "Phoenician" In Portuguese?

The secret reason why Brazilians don’t read books

I read an article in The Economist the other day about a mysterious phenomenon in Brazil: “Only one literate adult in three reads books. The average Brazilian reads 1.8 non-academic books a year—less than half the figure in Europe and the United States”

Oh My, this sounds very serious. Apparently, the average adult Brazilian spends only “5.2 hours a week with a book.” Quite the disaster don't you think? Why is that?

I’m going to put on my Steven Levitt hat and go all Freakonomics on you to find the answer:
If you live in Lebanon, look around you. Be honest with yourself and answer this question: How many adult you know spends “5.2 hours a week with a book?” Are we thinking of the same answer?

Now, if the figure of 7 million Lebanese in Brazil is correct (there are doubts), we can all relish in the fact that we solved a mystery that is causing The Economist so much headache.

An Airtight Case

The President of Egypt tells us why Amr Mussa’s term as Secretary General of the Arab League deserves to be extended..


My brothers, your Highnesses, Kings, Presidents, Emirs, Emperors, dictators, eternal leaders of our Arab brethrens, I have decided that Amr Mussa is Egypt’s candidate for the next term as Secretary General of the Arab League..

You are all free to present your candidates, but as you know well, the Secretary General has traditionally been Egyptian and he will always be one. So save your breath, I’m notifying you, I’m not consulting with you..

Don’t worry. Mr Mussa is a great Candidate. He has shown great resolve in fixing the Arab world’s problems in his term. Witness how well he dealt with the Iraq war. Remember how he galvanized the whole Arab world in a strong position against the invasion? And how he later galvanized them for the post-invasion construction?

Remember how Amr Mussa prevented the killing, raping and looting of millions of people in Darfur by Sudanese Government forces?

What about Amr Mussa’s great plan to create a single market for goods, services, people and Ideas across the Arab world, to lift the standard of living of hundreds of millions of aspiring Arabs and give them hope for a better life? Doesn’t that deserve another term to be followed through?

What about Amr Mussa’s efforts to re-invent the Arab world to bring it back to relevance among the world’s nations?

See how Amr Mussa diligently tried to assist the aspirations of the Lebanese and Syrian people in their quest for independence and freedom?

Remember how Amr Mussa made the whole Arab world stand by Dubai in front of the savage display of racist nationalism in the US?

Your highnesses, honestly, I can’t find a better candidate than Amr Mussa. If you think you have a better one, please keep him for yourself..

A Lebanese Exception?

A tale of Mothers’ Day and Burgers that fly on planes


As a Lebanese expat living in West Africa, I keep on getting questions from my non-Lebanese expat friends, who are usually well traveled North Americans and Europeans.

Aside from the boring “How come there’s so many Lebanese in West Africa?” question, I get this interesting one: “How come wherever I go, I find Lebanese that are very rich and powerful?” Yes ladies and gentlemen, this is not just some propaganda stuff our moms and dad tell us to instill in us pride in our nation; the world is apparently full of Lebanese millionaires, billionaires and zillionaires.

So I started asking myself: is there such thing as a money-making DNA?

I couldn’t find the answer to that question, but I got a clue this evening.
I bumped into one of my Lebanese friends who seemed very excited. I asked him why and he told me that he has figured out the most original Mothers’ Day gift ever: A Big Mac! (his mom, who lives here with him, loves them)

Now, that might seem normal to many of you guys, but it’s not the same when the closest McDonalds is thousands of kilometers away. My friend went on and explained that a Lebanese man opened a shop that among other things, “imports” burgers from Lebanon.

It seems there’s a good market for people who crave Big Macs here, so the guy just takes your order, assures you that your Hamburger will be purchased just one hour before the plane leaves Lebanon, and voila! You get your 8-hour old burger.
Don’t be too disgusted, he sold 120 burgers yesterday and he’s becoming the buzz in town. He’s now expanding his offer to include Burger King and KFC. Next thing you know, he’s a millionaire!

By the way, does anyone know why we’re the only people on the planet that celebrates Mothers’ day on March 21 st ?

Boiling Neighborhood

The News from the region are getting worse every day. Have we reached a slippery slope?

“The situation in the broader Middle East is more complex, fragile and dangerous today than it has been for a long time [..] Several of the multiple conflicts in the region are reaching a boiling point." Terje Roed-Larsen (March 11, 2006)

Consider Today’s Internet News stories:

Washington expects strong statement on Iran in Security Council (Almustaqbal)

85 executed bodies found in Iraq (Aljazeera)

Israeli tanks, helicopters and troops fire on a Palestinian prison where six inmates are holed. Militants attack UK consulate (CNN)

Meltdown in Dubai Stock Exchange, indicator loses 12% of value and market loses AED 77 Billion -$21 Billion- (Alarabiya)

This National Dialogue had better succeed!

Le Chef

Let's see what kind of "fatty" decisions our leaders will make today...

Unexpected Extension

The leaders will now have to deal with this

A Samba In the Dark

Rana Kolailat’s capture smells of backroom dealing


So Rana Kolailat, the heroin of the Al-madina Bank scandal was caught in Brazil. Hariri-owned Almustaqbal newspaper wants us to believe that the Lebanese Secret Services tipped off the Brazilian Secret Services about Rana's whereabout in Sao Paolo.

That’s quite the feat by our spies don’t you think? They managed to track down one single citizen in a country that has twice as many Lebanese as in Lebanon. An average-looking woman with fake passports who was globetrotting the planet was caught by the same people who still cannot catch criminals who killed half our politicians in mid-day. I don’t know about you, but I don’t buy that.

A clearer picture was painted by Naharnet today:

An Nahar said that it received unconfirmed information that Rana's arrest in Brazil was linked to developments in the U.N. probe into Hariri's murder, which is widely blamed on Syria.

Now that’s more like it. Rana is being sacrificed.

On the eve of Brammertz’s first report on the killing of Ex-Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, we can all expect to hear more scapegoat stories. As for our Secret services suddenly turning into the CIA, well, I'm afraid we'll have to wait a bit more for that to happen.

Last Week On The Lebanese Blogosphere

Most of you know that I write a weekly post on Global Voices Online that summarizes what's happening in the Lebanese Blogosphere. You can read yesterday's piece here. If any of the authors mentioned objects to what I wrote please let me know. Also, please feel free to make any comment on the piece.

For new bloggers or bloggers that are not yet on my watch list, please email me and let me know if there's a post you'd like to include in my next weekly roundup.

I could also need some help: If someone is willing to watch the Arabic side of the Lebanese Blogosphere and write a small summary in English every week (Sunday) , I would be most appreciative and his/her efforts will be acknowledged (Eve, any chance :)?). I also noticed the proliferation of some French language blogs and I was wondering if someone can help me keep an eye on that too.

Thanks for your help.

Lock'em Up

What should we do to guarantee success in the next round of the National Dialogue? The Beirut Spring suggests a wild idea: Lock up the leaders until they come out with a solution

We have a problem: We all want the people in the national dialogue to reach an agreement, but as the latest squabbles have shown, our leaders can be a frivolous and irresponsible bunch. What can we do?

Honestly, I think we should lock them up.
Yes, Just like that. They shouldn’t be able to get out of their location until they hammer out an agreement. Their cell phones will be taken away from them, they’ll be well fed and they will be allowed the occasional conjugal visit. But sorry, no entertainment. They only have each other to talk to. (Samir Geagea will have the least trouble with that)

This all might sound like fantasy, but this is not only doable, it is also crucial. It would be the practical translation of “failure is not an option,” the mantra everyone keeps repeating. The concept of locking up important people until they come up with solutions is not a new one. They do it in the Vatican everytime a pope needs to be elected, and, in Iraq, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman has just written this:

We need to bring together all the newly elected Iraqi leaders for a national reconciliation conference — outside Baghdad. We should lock them in a room and not let them out until they [..] produce a national unity government

It’s very difficult to lock up the most powerful men in the land, but it’s not impossible. We all know what’s at stake and we all know the importance of dialogue. All foreign and Arab countries should push towards the locking-up option. Lebanese pressure groups should do the same. Today’s activism by the Lebanese Trade bodies is a step in the right direction. Even the army can push towards that (what do you say General Sleiman? Fancy bullying some politicians?)

One last thing. To avoid choking nearby businesses, the meetings should take place outside of Beirut. Maybe somewhere with a chimney so that we could all see the white smoke when (not if) it comes out.

Ouch!

Micheal Young unleashes a very harsh criticism onto Michel Aoun...

The Last Supper?

There is no question that Walid Jumblat put an abrupt halt to the National dialogue. The question is: did he betray his allies and supporters?


We never had great expectations from the dialogue. But we were all enjoying the smiley faces and upbeat statements. When I saw Saad Hariri and Hassan Nassrallah visiting Hariri’s grave, hand in hand, I thought: “That’s it, I’m buying Solidere shares. Lebanon is finally going to work out”.

Next thing we know, Jumblat declares from Washington after meeting Condoleezza Rice that Hezbollah is a militia and that it should be disarmed. Was he speaking for himself or was he representing the March 14 people?

Things are not clear yet, but Mr. Jumblat told Aljazeera that a deal to remove President Lahhoud in exchange for keeping Hezbollah’s weapons has failed. This suggests that he’s speaking for his allies. But the stakes are too high for such a public meltdown to happen.

Jumblat might be playing his usual game of brinkmanship, but the fact that he made that statement from Washington, and the fact that he didn’t seem to care about the many Lebanese who had high expectations from dialogue could prove more than the Druze leader and his allies could handle.

It took a lot of work and burnt nerves to create an atmosphere of trust before the dialogue. But Mr. Jumblat scrapped all of that in one statement. The implications might be much more serious than we think..

Inside the Meeting..

The Beirut Spring has learned a few tricks from Al-Dyar. It's bringing you live what's going on right now, inside the round table...(There's also a few things that haven't been said yet)

Nabih Berry: Ladies and..Euh.. I mean Gentlemen, we are gathered here today for a very serious national dialogue. The point of it is to talk and maybe get to know each other.
Now, before I take my seat and become just like any one of you, let me throw in a thought: I have a dream, that one day we will be able to have this meeting in the Shebaa farms. I heard they have the best ski slopes in the country.

Walid Jumblat (Interrupting Berri): I have a better dream, how about having it in the Baabda palace? We can relax by watching the fountains and all those soldiers who walk in a funny way..

Marwan Hmedeh: Too bad there’s a mass murderer in there

Muhammad Raad: Can we go back to our national dialogue? What are we going to do with all those misguided Lebanese politicians who are taking orders from America and the Zionist enemy?

Saad Hariri: Mohammed, this is not what we’re here to talk about. We are here to decide once and for all how to get Syria off our back and to regain our free and independent Lebanon. (Pssst.. Walid, slip in a nasty comment about the Iranian nuclear interference in Lebanon)

Ahmad Fatfat: Mr. Hariri said it best

Michel Aoun: I thought they said we’re having breakfast before we start talking! Where are my Count Choculas? No wonder you guys cannot handle a country. You are all insane! You are all corrupt! Hey you, why are you staring at me like that?

Butros Harb: Gentlemen, gentlemen, relax, let’s talk about the Presidency

Ghazi el Aridi: Yeah, that’s a good starting point!

Hassan Nassrallah: We have more important things to talk about. Let’s start with the conspiracy Bush and Rice and Co are preparing against us. Walid, why on earth are you going to visit Paul Wolfowitz?

Jumblat: To be honest, we want to topple the Syrian regime; what you don’t know is that Abdel Halim Khaddam will be joining us. I have a plan to create unrest in the Syrian Druze areas. Hopefully all of the Syrian people will follow..

Mohammed Fneish: Let’s see what you’re going to get from those backstabbing Americans

Samir Geagea: It’s too late Mohamed, the Syrian regime is doomed. If you’re wise, you’ll hand in your weapons. The Syrians will not protect you. Lahhoud will not protect you. Only the Lebanese people can protect you..

Hassan Nassrallah: Before preaching look at yourself Mr. Mass Murdering warlord. Who are you to come and give us lessons in nationalism???

Pierre Gmayyel: He’s more Lebanese than you’ll ever be Mr. Iran!!

Mohammed Fneish: How dare you insult sama7at al Sayyed you brat!!

Fuad Senioura: Ya jama3a, Ya jama3a. I see we’re making excellent progress. But let’s continue tomorrow..

(note: For all of you who did not understand that this is a parody, please note that I am not willfully disseminating wrong information. This post, in case you didn't get it, is just a joke)