Meet The Devils

Hezbollah's TV station Al-Manar has referred to the March 14 people as "The Devils". Could it have been inspired by a certain Holiday tomorrow?

Guns N Roses

On war, peace and sustainable development


I wanted to comment on what Akram Shayyeb, a March 14 M.P, said yesterday.

In reference to Hezbollah’s planned demonstrations and actions, Mr. Shayyeb said: “We will not respond to their bullets with roses”. Coming from someone who belongs to the PSP, a party with a past of armed warlordism, Mr. Shayyeb’s veiled threat has an eerie credibility that can send cold shivers down most Lebanese spines.

Was he wrong to make such a comment?

The conventional wisdom holds that war-weary Lebanese are instinctively nervous of anything that might bring back the dark days of war. Surely, they argue, a comment like Mr. Shayyeb will only make rumors of Lebanese factions arming more believable, and cause the Lebanese to fall back on their basic clan affiliation instincts.

Nevertheless, This blog was about to argue that Mr. Shayyeb said the right thing.

March 14 should have an internal conviction that If you want peace, you should be prepared for war. Unless a credible deterrence was in the offing, Hezbollah will only bully the Lebanese into more concessions, further away from the international community and closer to the “rejectionist” camp of Iran and Syria.
This is a war of nerves. Is Nassrallah really ready to use his war-ravaged supporters against the rest of the Lebanese, all for the sake of a “national unity government”? Is he seriously gearing up for another showdown?

....

I had all of the above on my mind. Yet this morning while going to work and listening to the news, I had my priorities mixed up and no longer wanted to talk about Lebanese politics..

On the news bulletin, I heard about a report that global warming could shrink the entire world economy by a fifth if nothing is done about it. The ensuing international crisis would be worse that the great depression in the thirties.

Later, in a different program, the BBC reported of a new dance club in the Netherlands that will be the world’s first “sustainable dance club”. The dancing floor of the club will be equipped in such a way that the dancing vibrations will produce enough electricity to power the club. Smart eih?

Such a different world we the Lebanese live in. You suddenly see your little Lebanese skirmishes in perspective. It is such a shame that the Lebanese political class and we the commentariat are so fixated on trivial power games and forget that the bigger ship, the world we live in, needs urgent attention. I am yet to see one mainstream Lebanese journalist write about global warming in a major newspaper.

We have to set our priorities straight, or even Mr. Shhayyeb’s proverbial rose will become too precious to throw away.

Ingenious Berri

Meet Berri's 3eediyyé: (Eid's Gift)
(If you're in the UAE or Saudi Arabia and you can't see the image because of flickr restrictions, please email me and i'll be glad to send a copy to you)

(PS: Sorry for the spotty blogging, I should be back on track soon. I might also have a little surprise up my sleeves..)

He Should Go

Ahmad Fatfat is a well-intentioned man, but he's incompetent as a Minister of Interior. He should resign.


We've seen it all before: A Hariri loyalist gets appointed as an interior minister with fresh promises of toughness on crime and terror, only to be rattled well into his tenure by seemingly unstoppable waves of... well, crime and terror.

It is tempting, as many in the March 14 (M14) movement are doing, to blame President Lahhoud for this ineffectiveness. After all, the President still has the power to stall security appointments and, with the help of the remaining Syrian loyalists in the security establishment, to meddle endlessly. The M14 people are often heard saying: If we are ruling, we should at least be given the full ability to rule (code for: we should be given the freedom to make all the appointments we wish to make)

While that makes sense, it only partly explains the catalogue of failures of Ahmad Fatfat in the Interior Ministry. A look at the rocket attacks in the Beirut Central District last Sunday for instance reveals a colossal failure of imagination. All it took was lacing obvious intelligence points together to conclude for instance the the Fuad Shihab bridge would make an ideal launching point for rockets aimed at very sensitive targets. Why wasn't the bridge monitored?
The shooting of two young boys by the security forces in a Shiaa area was another big gaff.

There's another important reason why Mr. Fatfat should go: He has become a political liability for the Future Movement.

Mr. Fatfat became the object of much ire when he licenced the establishment of Hizb-el-tahrir, a marginal extremist islamic party that advocates the resurrection of the islamic khalifat. Mr. Fatfat's logic was impeccable: Since those people are going to assemble anyway, they might as well do it under our watchful eyes (this is a very liberal principle followed by the Netherlands for instance in regulating drug use and the sex industry), but the execution was flawed. He should have pre-empted his critics by calling for a public debate on the matter and explaining in the press. Instead, he went in a typical Lebanese hush-hush way about it and gave munition to M14's Christian opponents, including LF supporters who are not fully convinced of their alliance with the Future Movement.

Ahmad Fatfat is also very exposed to the embarrassing episode where the M14 shook hands and exchanged smiles and gifts with the universally hated John Bolton.

Can the Future Movement benefit from Ahmad Fatfat's removal?

Removing Fatfat can be a three-in-one master stroke:

- Since Hezbollah and Aoun are both asking for Fatfat's head, letting him go can be made to appear as a concession that needs to be countered by a similar move from the other side.

- Dropping the Dinniyeh Minister can further strengthen the alliance with Samir Geagea's LF by denying the right-wing elements the chance to vent about the Islamist Minister, an argument that is also used frequently by the FPM to shore up its Christian base.

- And finally, the position of Interior Minister can be used to install a competent, high profile...Armenian.

Yes, Armenian.

The Armenians allied with Mr. Hariri (mainly the Hanshak and the Ramgavar) are in a fix. They have no benefits to show their constituents from their alliance with Hariri. Instead, they appear to be increasingly ignored. Look at how the Turkish troops were admitted in the UNIFIL2 despite strong Armenian opposition? Having a high profile Ministry in the Government can go a long way in fixing that situation, and prevent Armenian opponents (like the Tashnak) from tapping into those grievances.

Yalla Mr. Fatfat, sorry, but it is time to start packing.

ImPRESSed?

So how did the Lebanese press and various parties react to Aoun's showing yesterday? let's have a look

Annahar & Albalad were impressed by Aoun's Showing.
Both mainstream newspapers reported professionally on the matter, with a hint of grudge in Annahar


Al-Akhbar (Hezbollah Supporters) used the below image to make a point: See the hot chicks and clean-shaven guys wearing orange? don't you dare say they are not real Christians or Hezbollah supporters.


Almustaqbal in denial: Aoun showing? what Aoun showing? wasn't the event cancelled? How about publishing even more pictures of Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblat, Fuad Sanioura and the Saudi King?


Lebanese Forces.. Well, you judge from this picture circulating in LF circles.
I received one from an LF friend. The email was entitled: IRANGE event

Targeting the BCD

The Lebanese have to be very careful and wise in dealing with the attacks that shook the Beirut Central District.


If you’re an “external destabilizing party” and you want to provoke a Sunni-Shia rift in Lebanon, what better way can you think of than sending a bunch of troublemakers to bomb a neighborhood associated with the Sunni Hariri’s rebuilding efforts, using weapons that are commonly available to Hezbollah fighters?

But that was precisely what happened this dawn when a group of armed men fired three rockets onto a building in the Beirut Central District, an Icon of the March 14 elite. Fortunately, only a few people were hurt and the rest was material damage, but who did it and why?

To be sure, the explosions are part of a general trend of security disruption. But this particular incident has a lot of significance.

It happened the same day Michel Aoun, a Christian opposition leader, was planning to make a fiery speech demanding the government’s resignation in front of thousands of supporters (the event was cancelled because of bad weather).

The instigator could have calculated that the Sunnis would be in no mood to hear their beloved Prime Minister bashed from the same person who dismissed Hariri’s tribunal as a waste of time. Let alone if that happens the same day their cherished central district was bombed with weapons similar to those at the disposal of Hezbollah, who is also allied with Aoun.

Another clue is the proximity of the attack to the UN headquarters in Beirut (a direction the Lebanese government is emphasizing to reduce talk of the first possibility.)
The UN has enemies in the region because of two things: One is the UN investigation into Hariri’s murder that could point fingers to powerful regional parties. The other, more recent factor is UNIFIL 2's presence in the South, which is straining the movement of Hezbollah.
In this light, the attacks can be seen as a warning to the United Nations not to meddle too much.

It is yet too early to know exactly who is causing these attacks, but the Lebanese have to be very careful to avoid playing right into the hands of the people who want them the least good.

Slow Europeans

Europeans are starting to discover that maybe, after all, Muslims are not like them. What took them so long?

Consider two pictures:

-The United Arab Emirates, an Arab country with bustling high-rise cities decides to arrange a national beauty pageant contest. The announcement enraged the city of Sharjah so much it decided to take off the posters of the events from its streets.

- A Time magazine article about new family arrangements in Europe mentions that 48% of babies born in France in 2005 were born out of wedlock.

One item causes yawns and the other causes fervent condemnations. Which one does what depends on whether the reader is a European or a Muslim.

As a Muslim who grew up in a conservative family and who later had a “western” education and lived with Western friends, I’m always surprised when I read articles like this one (which apparently is so groundbreaking it made it to the top most emailed articles on the New York Times)

But many Europeans — even those who generally support immigration — have begun talking more bluntly about cultural differences, specifically about Muslims’ deep religious beliefs and social values, which are far more conservative than those of most Europeans on issues like women’s rights and homosexuality.

Duh…The word “boyfriend” is still a dirty word in even the most liberal of practicing Muslim families, did it really take them that much time to figure out how different they were?

Unworthy Target

March 14’s best policy for dealing with Michel Aoun is to leave him alone.

Better days

Let’s suppose you’re the leader of a party that advocates the overthrowing of the Seniora Government. Now let's suppose your advisors gave you three policy options to chose from:

1- You can highlight the corruption of the Future Movement in your media, drum up its quest to “swallow” and “buy” Lebanon and stress its ties with the Saudi Wahabist regime..

2- You can aim to discredit the March 14 movement by relentlessly focusing on the criminal records of Walid Jumblat and Samir Geagea and their warlord/clan mentality...

3- ..Or you can choose to attack the competence and character of Seniora himself and vow to uproot him soon.

Aoun gave his enemies a great gift by choosing number 3.

Why would anyone attack one of the country’s most popular politicians when he could have focused on “worthier” targets that better advance his cause without alienating moderate would-be supporters? The answer is not important. What's important is that Aoun is shooting himself in the foot and being his own worst enemy.

The March 14 media should seize this oportunity and stop attacking the General. If they keep aiming at him they'll risk being redundant and counterproductive. People will ask: "why all this focus on Mr. Aoun" and the attacks can backfire. Why assassinate the character of someone who's assassinating himself?

The best thing the March 14 media can do is to leave Aoun alone (Fares Khashan, Nassir As3ad, Paul Shawul and Ali Hmedeh, I hope you read this) and start focusing on important things, like how to deal with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. How can we cajole Nabih Berri and bring him to our side? How can we build a less corrupt political machine that can win elections with bigger margins? How can we implement the Taif accord and consolidate the national partnership? How can we weed out corruption in the system?

Politics is a game of chess, not a shouting match. There is a lot to be won by staying away from the cursing fest. I say we stop insulting the oranges. I will start with myself. As of this post, there will be no more giving Michel Aoun any special attention. I hope others will follow.

Bashar Wants In

In his latest set of gems, the Syrian president explains to El-Pais what the best solution for Lebanon is.


To all those who think (yes I'm talking to you Mr. Orange Bandana) that Syria has left Lebanon alone, read what Mr. Assad has to say:

"What's missing [in Lebanon] is a state in which all Lebanese consider themselves represented," the Syrian president told El Pais. "If that's accomplished, it will then be possible" to disarm Hizbullah."

The only solution," Assad added, "is if all interested parties have confidence in Syria. The Americans need to talk to us to understand us, to know who we are and what we want," Assad said, adding that Washington "needs the Europeans to better understand the region."

Code for: Once we control the Lebanese cabinet, we will hold the keys to peace in the region and you'll have to talk with us if you want to disarm Hezbollah.

Blessed Scrutiny

The Lebanese system is not that bad, and even people like Michel Aoun have great uses.

My event is better than yours

The system works, we just need to shout less. So was the opinion of P.M. Seniora on a “national unity” Iftar dinner last Friday.

The Premier insisted he is not underestimating the importance of the right of political divergence in a democratic country where public freedoms and in particular political freedoms are observed,
"But I don't see the need for the sharpness in expression where voices are sounded out, causing tension for citizens"

One commentator on a previous post agrees:

“Geagea is a traitor, Hariri kid is a kid, Nasrallah is a war monger and a terrorist, Jumblatt is a flip flopper,” etc... why can't we discuss ideas, political plans, economic strategies, Israel and Syria's hidden agendas? Does it always have to be on the personal level of the leaders? Why can't we admit that each one has people that he represents and pay little bit of respect to those people? the more you insult this leader, the more you insult their followers"

Words of wisdom. You see, when we target leaders, our judgment of actions becomes clouded. Consider for instance a situation where Michel Aoun, A bête noire to the March 14 movement did a great service to the displaced in Mount-Lebanon:

We all know that Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader, is less than transparent (to put it mildly) when it comes to spending the government's money allocated for the civil war’s displaced. So when Michel Aoun, a political foe, sets up a large event to “expose the theft and lies” in that dossier, Jumblatt immediately felt the heat of scrutiny and staged a counter-event to prove him wrong. The question is: who is benefiting?

It was a classic situation where political competition benefits the consumers (citizens). This is why, for our own benefits, we should learn how to look at political actions, not politicians. We need to reduce our “brand loyalty” and constantly shop for superior product offerings. Let's establish the political equivalent of a consumer protection agency (some say that would be the free press but I say it's more an attitudinal shift)

Imagine for example having a Aoun-like competitor to Nabih Berri challenging him to account for the money allocated for majlis inma2 al Janoub (The Council for Development of Southern Lebanon). wouldn’t that be great?