Role Playing

It really all depends on how you frame the situation.

Let's think of today's demo this way: It's the day we get the chance to play President Lahhoud. Call it the Halloween of Lebanese politics.

Yes, ladies and gentleman, thousands and thousands of people will be chanting for us to leave, they will shout, scream, pull their hair, knock their heads on walls, cry foul, call injustice, evoke unconstitutionality, and we'll simply ignore them with a dry "Sanioura baken li akher wilayatahou" (Sanioura will stay till the end of his term)

At the end of the day, they'll get tired, they'll get bored and they'll slowly wither away and go back to their houses, universities and shops.

Yes, today is our day.

While we sit comfortably in our houses with our Lebanese flags hanging on our windows, we give them a taste of their own obstinacy.

Seniora's Speech

To listen live to Seniora's upcoming speech (8:00 Lebanon time, 6:00 GMT), go to this website, then click on live audio at the top right.


After the speech is over, please feel free to share with us what you think in the comments section below.

Who Started?

On the FPM's website, there's a strip of text explaining the tayyar's position vis-a-vis tomorrow's actions. After all this is over, the Future Movement should reflect well on its content.


Here's what it says:

They accuse us of rapprochement with Hezbollah, the same people who were allied with them in the parliamentary elections, the same people who formed a government with them. As for us, we are forbidden from allying ourselves with the Future Movement or with Hezbollah and Amal.

Who's the Machiavelli who decides those "truths"?

If those people understood politics well, things wouldn't have reached to what they have reached today.

I have two observations on the above:

- This is the second time I sense that Aoun was originally interested in allying himself with the Future Movement. The first time was in a TV show when the FPM's media coordinator said: "The FPM and the FM have very similar economic agendas, it's a shame that they're on different isles." (remember the famous incident when Hariri went to rabieh and a Smiling Aoun said that the two parties have "99% in common?")

- I sense a hint of contrition from the FPM. If they say: things wouldn't have reached what they have reached today. It means they're to a certain extent sorry about what they'll "have to do" tomorrow.

Let Them Rally

The worst mistake March 14 can make is to confront tomorrow's demonstration.

Michel Aoun has decided to use the street to try to usurp power. Fine, let him demonstrate. After all, we live in a free country.

But here's a friendly advice to my buddies in the Lebanese Forces:
Stay away from them. Don't be provoked and don't repeat the Sassine square mistake. Maintain the moral high ground, or you'll give the FPM the chance to become a martyr like it's painstakingly trying to portray itself. The FPM thrives on feeling victimized. Don't give it that pleasure.

Let them stand there naked in front of the whole world.

As Micheal Young puts it today:

At the street level, the March 14 approach to the Aounists must be exactly the opposite of what happened at Sassine. Instead of provoking them, leave them to face the consequences of their actions. Aoun is his own worst enemy. Build a safety net for his followers, but let the general hang himself with his own rope, if he insists on doing so.

Scaremongering

Here's something I've noticed in both Tayyars in this country.
Much like George Bush, they're using scaremongering and victimization to drum up their bases.

Arman Homsi, Annahar

Yesterday, the Future Movement mobilized its media with loud headlines about a Syrian plot to assassinate 36 Lebanese figures, just to get one message across to its core Northern Sunni constituency: "They're out there to get you"

Also, for the last two days, Michel Aoun's FPM has been mobilizing its media with news about Qouwet baddies getting armed and wanting to assassinate their leader, and today, invade their party offices. The purpose, also, is to send their supporters one message, you guessed it: "They're out there to get you"

My problem is not with the news themselves. There might as well be Syrian terrorists on the lose or plans to invade the FPM's offices. What I find appalling is the loud, nerve-breaking media alarmism which is clearly serving as a political tool. If there are terrorists on the lose, fine, but do you have to shout loud about it in a newspaper manchette? let the security people take care of it. Same with the "Qouwet invadors". In both cases, arrests have already been made.

The technique works in the short term, but in the long term, it will create resentment and people will feel used. But there's another reason why politicians should quit the scaremongering: people have daily lives to take care of.

Yet Another Franken-Party

Question: If you mix the profiles of two parties who belong to one side of the political divide, what do you get?

Answer: A new party on the other side of the political divide.

Meet March 14's newest member: Attayar Al-Shee3y Al-Hurr, or FPS (Free Patriotic Shiaas.) They have just issued a statement, check it out.

Playing Dirty?

How fair is it for the March 14 group to invoke a 9-year-old Nassrallah statement to further their political objectives?


In today's edition, the March 14 official website digs up an obscure Nassrallah interview with Assafir back in November 1997. In the interview, Hezbollah's head said that civil disobedience in principle is unacceptable unless it is ordered by Al-Wali al-Fakeeh, (a supreme supra-nationalist Shiaa authority.)

Supporters of such tactics would argue that Nassrallah's interview revealed his ideological convictions, and that such convictions do not change with time. In other words, the forthcoming civil disobedience by Nassrallah would be based on orders from outside the Lebanese territories. Some would even say that this interview is aimed at Christian Aounists who believe that today's struggle is a pure Lebanese matter. But is this a wise PR move by March 14?

The move is wrong for two reasons. One is moral, the other is tactical.

First, people change. You can't discount the amount of experience one can get in 9 years. We as human beings are subject to constant experiences that continuously mold our personalities and beliefs through time. Did you know for example that Hariri as a student was a communist?

The other reason why such PR tactics are ill-advised, is purely one of self interest. Most of March 14's houses are made of glass and throwing stones at opponents can backfire. The last thing the Lebanese need is Al-manar TV, Al-akhbar, New TV and NBN, getting filled with old speeches by Jumblat waxing poetics on Lebanese-Syrian fraternity, or with recording by Samir Geagea admitting to killing people...

The tactic smacks of cheap pettiness and should be immediately revised.

Make love, not war, Lebanon style...


From the "fertile" brains of columnist Georges Nassif.

Also notice the title of the piece. It can read: Lan yabka baladon litourakkibouh (there won't be any country left to be fixed), but it can also read: Lan yabka baladon litarkabouh (there won't be any country left to "ride")

PS: If anyone can translate this into English without losing the bang, please step forward (Tony? Eve?)

Sanity

Is sanity beginning to creep into Lebanese public life?
Is it time for a large collective breath of relief?


One of the highest Shiaa figures in Lebanon, the vice president of the Lebanese Highest Council of Shiaas has asked the Lebanese not to take to the streets.. Read more (Arabic)..

My First Victim

The uncertainty in Lebanon has taken its toll on my planned wedding.

no longer..

We were getting prepared for our wedding in early January.

We have set the date, reserved the hall and made a non-refundable down payment to the fancy place just north of Beirut (picture).

For the last three days, though, most of our invitees have been pressuring us not to have our wedding outside of Tripoli (where we’re both from). They say it’s not safe.
“My friends parents have decided not to allow them to go to party in Beirut”, my sad fiancée told me, "no matter how nice the wedding is, it will be terrible if the invitees didn't show up"

It pains me that we might have to reschedule everything, but I guess things could have been worse.

Sectual Healing ?

The campaign everyone is talking about is cute. But is it effective?


The people behind the amam campaign are well intentioned. Some of them are good friends of mine and one of them used to be my student. The campaign is catchy, but besides making a point, what are they really achieving with the 300 billboards spread all over Lebanon?

The stated purpose of the campaign is to increase our awareness of a problem we have, to shock ourselves and realize how medieval our sectarian system is. The campaign states its raison-d'etre in its website:

The campaign focuses on the ridiculous/harmful side of sectarianism/confessionalism and its excesses in our every day life. [It] is bound to make you both laugh and think. The tone, which is innovative, provocative, funny and straight to the point, will most certainly generate debate and provoke much-needed thinking about the reality of how far confessionalism dictates our every day social behaviour.

But that seems like a redundant task. Do we really need to be reminded of something so pervasive in our daily life? The Post's Shadid himself writes:

By tradition, the president is Maronite, the prime minister Sunni, the parliament speaker Shiite. Other posts are reserved for Greek Orthodox, Greek Catholic and Druze. Boy scouts are organized by community, not country -- the Mahdi Scouts for the Shiites, for instance. Television stations have their own sectarian bent -- the Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. for Christians, Future for the Sunnis. Christians are partial to the Sagesse basketball team, Sunnis the Riyadi team. There are even two Armenian soccer teams -- Homenmen and Homenetmen -- one faithful to Armenian leftists, the other to the community's right wing. Before this summer's war, Sunni soccer fans loyal to Ansar brawled in a stadium with Shiite youths loyal to Nijmeh.

The problem with the campaign, is that it asks us to "stop" sectarianism without actually telling us how to do that. It's one thing to make fun of the system, and it's something else to tell your parents that you're marrying someone from a different religion. (As people behind the campaign themselves know very well)

In a country where religious courts are the sole authorities in determining matters like marriage, divorce, inheritance and child custody (did you know for instance that if a Muslim woman marries a Christian man, she loses all her inheritance rights?), making fun of a problem is still not solving the problem.

In other words, unless serious efforts to take the campaign from the billboards to legislation are under way, the large amounts of money spent on this campaign will be spent on nothing but a sheer curiosity.

Love Me Or Else

You're a leader whose picture has been burnt recently in a place you're supposedly popular. To make up for the wounded pride, you send up a bunch of "party operatives" sneaking there after midnight to hang it back.

The reaction to this top-down love-fest becomes a spontaneous revulsion from the residents (remember, at midnight) that requires the army to set you apart.

Don't you get the message?

Eido Sees Blood..

Am I the only who noticed this?

Eido, a Muslim Sunni who is a part of Hariri's Future Movement has aparently told the Times' Micheal Slackman: “We will sell our blood to buy weapons and confront them (Hezbollah). We will never let them control the country.”

Considering the Future Movement has no history in armed confrontations, this is serious stuff.

The Next Buzzword: Peace?

All this talk of civil war might perversely lead to a compromise between the various Lebanese parties. This would echo similar regional arrangements.

The Lebanese from all sides are so terrified by the prospect of another civil war that some believe a bargain might soon be in the offing.
Oussama Safa writes in Bitter Lemons:

In the weeks to come, we might see a softening of Hizballah's position on the tribunal in an effort to defray mounting criticism after the assassination but also to secure some gains in return. With opposition to the tribunal seen as a Shi'ite defense of Syrian interests against a largely Sunni demand, Hizballah can only do so much to resist. It has been hesitant to take to the streets and paralyze the country after repeated threats to do so. While the assassination of Gemayel has allowed the March 14 movement to regain the initiative, it has also taken the pressure off Hizballah from having to mobilize its supporters to delay and potentially obstruct the tribunal

Even Hariri-owned Almustaqbal wrote that Hezbollah insinuated lamlamet el 2umur (cleaning up the mess)

Yesterday, the Israelis and Palestinians reached a fragile ceasefire that has a surprising amount of hope attached to it.

In Lebanon, Palestine and Israel, it seems, people have started to value a good night sleep more than anything else.

"Strike" And Run?

What do you think? Will guerrilla tactics work with government the way they worked with occupation? Can you really organize a "surprise" rally?

Is it a good tactic for non-Hezbollah members of the opposition?

Is the public mood ready for such orchestrated "spontaneous" street action?

If so, how should the government act?

Jumblat's Speech

Jumblat's speech was so well written and effective that I really want to know who the speech-writer is. If anyone has a clue, please let me know.. (Taken from Paul)

لن ينالوا من عزمنا للحياة ,لن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من ارادتنا في الصمود ,لن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من تمسكنا بالاستقلال ولن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من عشقنا للحرية والتنوع والتعدد ولن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من حبنا للفرح والحياة والامل ورفضنا لثقافة الموت والحزن ولن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من رفضنا للمحاور، محاور السواد والظلام والقرون الوسطى والجاهلية ولن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من رفضنا للشمولية والديكتاتورية ولن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من حظر السلاح، كل السلاح في أمرة الدولة لحماية الجنوب ودولة الطائف ولن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من مطلبنا للحقيقة والعدالة والمحكمة الدولية ولن ينالوا،
لن ينالوا من تمسكنا بلبنان، لبنان اولا.
وفوق كل هذا اقول لم اقرأ ولن أقرأ، لم أسمع ولن أسمع بيانات الفتنة في هذه اللحظة. وفوق الألم والجروح نحن مع الحوار".
اما انت يا شهيد لبنان، يا شهيد الاستقلال، يا شهيد الحرية والكرامة والعنفوان، يا شيخ بيار امين الجميل، فها انت تلتحق اليوم بقافلة الشهداء مع رفيقك سمير شرتوني، شهداء حزب الكتاب وشهداء آل الجميل وانسبائهم في قافلة شهداء الرابع عشر من آذار، شهداء الاستقلال الذين رفضوا التمديد ونظام الوصاية ونظام القهر والاستبداد، نظام القتل والاغتيال ولا يزال. تحية لك يا شيخ امين الجميل، يا فخامة الرئيس، ولعائلتك ولآل الجميل الكرام. تحية للرجال الرجال، ستبقى فينا يا شيخ بيار الجميل وسننتصر

PS: Tony has posted a translation in the comments section

Triangulation

Hassan Nassrallah has finally called the bereaved Ex-President Gemayel and gave him his condolences. The men who both lost sons to violence apparently exchanged warm words. But what about Aoun?

Gemayel has accepted Hezbollah's overture, but, according to the Tayyar's website, he is consistently ignoring Aoun's calls. In fact, Gemayel is actively and publicly reproaching Aoun.

Yesterday for instance, Gemayel said (I'm paraphrasing): It is very unnatural that Aoun Allies himself with parties like the Syrian Nationalist Party and the Baath, who do not believe in the sovereignty and finality of Lebanon, and that he is giving a Christian cover to people who do not deserve it.

Remember in the mass funeral, Gemayel also singled out the Aounists and asked them to join the independence movement and remove President Lahhoud.

Gmayyel's accepting Nassrallah's overtures and rejecting Aoun's has an inherent paradox: Aoun's supporters are sincerely sorry for Gemayel's death, whereas Nassrallah's are constantly reminded on Al-manar how the Gemayels were allied with the Israelis and how they massacred Palestinians.

Perhaps Gemayel dosen't mind a congruent enemy who is engaged in protocol niceties. What he really seems to mind, is what he perceives as a natural friend who is backstabbing him by protecting the assassins.

Rawa2..

I was looking at this Annahar picture and it hit me that some people just don't give a damn about politics. I envy this woman.

Never Again

The Lebanese should calm down, look at Iraq, and reflect.

I promise It won't happen again

I have my strong opinions and convictions. So do my political opponents.

But unlike many observers believe (or perversely seem to wish for), neither my camp nor the opposite one wants a civil war. In fact, every single person in this country saw enough bloodshed to last a lifetime, and we do not wish to see another war in the near or far future, thank you very much.

My opponents and I also have a common belief: An external force is bent on fighting with our bodies. I believe it's Syria, my opponents believe it’s The US and Israel. We are both convinced that the “foreign villain” is intent on using the tense situation to cause mayhem in this country.

Wisdom demands that we both watch what’s happening in Iraq today and learn our lessons very well.

Let’s for a second imagine an Iraqi horror scenario in Lebanon, and let’s imagine, really imagine, the possible Headlines in the BBC:

* Bomb goes off in busy market in the Lebanese Sunni City of Tripoli, 109 dead. Angry mob vows revenge. Hariri calls for calm.

2 days later:
*Suicide bomber attacks mosque in Shiaa city of Tyr, killing at least 78 Friday worshipers. Nassrallah asks demonstrators not to fall for the Israeli trap.

3 days later:
*30 bodies found in Beirut, 40 in Sidon. All are believed to be Sunnis, the bodies show signs of torture.

Same day:
*Suicide bomber blows himself up in Maronite church in the Northern Christian city of Zghorta killing 38, Sleiman Franjieh, a local Christian leader, says he knows who the “dogs” behind this are

After that, the bad guys can safely remove their hands. We will start killing each other on our very own momentum. You get the picture.

And you know what the worst part is?

People the world over will be watching/reading about our civil war unfolding, in the safety of their countries, and a few months down the line, popcorn in hand, they'll start getting bored of our news. They'll start dissing us as inherently violent and saying that we deserve this because we can't stand each other. The very mention of Lebanon would guarantee their reach for the remote control and switch to Jay Leno.

Whoever the bad guy is (Syria or Israel), the above Scenario is HELL, and we shouldn't let it happen. Honest communication should immediately take the place of tense mobilization.

"Felxibility"

Aoun is trying to sell his supporters the idea that they're being flexible, whereas the government is being stubborn. Check what the "opposition's" outlets are saying:

Starting with the Tayyar's website:

You see in the tayyar's lexicon, calling your opponents "whores" is part of being flexible.

Of course, Al-Akhabar, another Hezbollah outlet, is telling us how flexible they are really being:



And now to the paragon of Syrian flexibility, Addyiar:



Very flexible..

Common sense about Syria is finally creeping into some American editorials.


Unlike the infantile New York Times and the cold, calculating, deal-making Brits, Jim Hoagland in the Washington Post gets it:

Those who complain that there is a lack of communication between the Bush administration and the Assad regime are not paying attention. By local rules, a well-timed murder such as the gunning down of Pierre Gemayel in Beirut last week is more effective in sending a message than a diplomatic demarche.

[..]

The killing of Gemayel, a member of the anti-Syrian coalition headed by Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, bears the hallmarks of a Syrian "initiative" to block the U.N. effort. And the murder came as Syria was reestablishing diplomatic relations with Iraq after 24 years of estrangement. This translation of Syrian actions quickly made its way through the Middle East: "You want help in Iraq? It will cost you Lebanon. For starters." That is realpolitik and real communication, Assad-style.

That is in any event the context in which any new U.S. move to talk to Syria and to Syria's ally, Iran, will be seen. Washington must avoid giving the impression that it is willing to allow Syria to regain hegemony over Lebanon in return for smoothing the U.S. path in Iraq.

[..]

But any "realistic" deal that undermines Lebanon's hard-won freedom from Syrian control and protects murderers in Damascus would quickly become a fool's bargain. This is a clear case, as the U.N. involvement to strengthen Lebanon's sovereignty over all its frontiers demonstrates, where doing the moral thing is also the realistic thing.

Old Fashion Power Politics

Tell me what you think of this Time magazine article on today's funeral. Especially interesting is this paragraph:

...to a foreign observer, there was something startling about Friday's medieval pageantry. Inside the Maronite Catholic Cathedral of St. George, Lebanon's great and good gathered with their armed entourages in tow, like feudal barons reaffirming alliances over the body of a fallen comrade. Amid the burning incense and chants in arcane Assyrian, bishops stood beside generals, cowled monks hovered near women wearing black suits and sunglasses, in an epic panorama of old fashioned power politics.

Fascinating!

Update: My friend Joumana thinks that the author of this article, Andrew Butters is incompetent.

Source, BBC

Surprise!
Berri, one of the Shiaa Leaders, differentiates himself and his Amal movement from Hezbollah by attending the rally. It remains to be seen if that is purely a condolence visit, or, hopefully, a political message(a further isolation of Hezbollah)

**Update**
Patriarch Sfeir: Gmayyel killed to prevent the international tribunal from taking place..

**Update**
In rebuke to president Lahhoud, Sfeir thanks the President of France

**Update**
Beautiful, powerful, concise speech by Walid Jumblat, if you get your hands on the transcript, please let me know

**Update**
Jumblat's speech more powerful than Hariri's, but Hariri had louder Hurrays..

**Update**
Loud speakers played Gebran Tueni's independence oath, and everyone repeated after him under his huge Annahar building portrait, in a goose-bumps inducing moment..

**Update**
Geagea's speech most pugnacious

**Update**
In what seemed like a well thought move, Geagea was only speaker to mention President Lahhoud (so that it doesn't come across that the Muslims are asking for the Christian president to go) to a huge booing mob, all calling for heading to Baabda.

**Update**
Ex-President Amin Gmayyel, the bereaved father of the deceased , addressed Aoun's crowd and said:
The killing of Rafic Hariri sparked the first independence movement, the killing of Pierre, my son, sparked the second. The real independence this time, the one that leads to change, real change and reform (the name of Aoun's parliamentary block), the one that starts by the top. From Emile Lahoud, the President, downwards.

This will be considered as a very Strong Jab at Michel Aoun who opposed removing Lahhoud as the first move.

**Update**
In a very symbolic move, As'ad Harmouch, the head of the Islamic party (Sunni) Gema'a Islamyah, gave a speech stressing the importance of diversity, freedom, and yes, Arabism.
He then calls for Lahhoud to go and for the Tribunal to take place.

**More**
Naharnet, New York Times, BBC

Don't forget to listen live to the event, nobody knows the surprises today hides

Below The Belt

This is how Aljazeera covered the independence demo in Lebanon:


Top Headline: "Peres (the Israeli ex prime minister) supports Saniora, and the Lebanese bury Gemayyel"

Puke, puke, puke...

Live Broadcast

Are you stuck in your cubicle dying to get a piece of the Lebanese action?

Don't panic, you can still listen live to Future TV broadcast by visiting their Radio Orient website and clicking on Live Audio (up in the right corner). There You can listen to live coverage of this historic day, with the funeral proceedings, speeches, and various interviews with March14 people, journalists and experts (Arabic)

Now all you have to pray for is that your boss doesn't pass by.

Slogans..

To all readers glued to your TVs watching today's massive demo in Beirut. If your eye catches a significant/catching/funny/interesting slogan, would you please be kind enough to post it in the comments section? If it's in Arabic, could you please post it in transliterated form? (hek ya3ni), I'll then translate it later.


I know it's hard to beat "Syria-L Killer", but maybe our creative minds will find something fresh this year :)

Today's Sepeakers

According to Al-Arabiya, Amin El Gmeyel, the Ex-President father of the deceased, in addition to March 14's big three are all going to make key speeches in today's massive funeral


Also present will be the French Minister for Foreign Affairs Mr. Philippe Doust Blasier.
I guess we now understand why all those security measures are taken..