Make That Beast Look Friendlier

A tale of feisty men, a neighborhood and a panther that has to change colors.
When a diligent Daily Star reporter approached Ahmad el Masri, a Tareek Jdeedeh resident to ask him if he's familiar with the neighborhood's new "black panthers" logo, Ahmad whipped out his mobile phone, smiled and pointed at his screen: "This one, you mean?"

The unmistakable "black panthers" design is indeed a hit with Tareek Jdeedeh residents (or the TJ as a hip panther would call it). Even the logo's designer, code named M.A, was surprised at its enormous success:

"I was so surprised to see my logo on flags and T-shirts," said M.A., who added a special mark on the logo as a signature. "Today, I went to the store that sells flags and it was sold out. Imagine I have to buy my own design."

So who are the panthers?

Maya Abdel Aziz, 18 year old Tareek Jdeedeh resident explains:

"The Panthers are security so that nothing happens to the people[..] They're needed because the army can't do anything. Like when the [BAU clashes] happened on Thursday, the army just watched while people broke cars.

"The Panthers stay awake," Abdel-Aziz continued. "They take care of the security and they take shifts staying up and are aware of all the happenings in the area. They keep in contact with each other and they're organized. For security though, both the Panthers and the army need to be present."

Of course, a black panther is a bit harsh as a logo for armed vigilantes on the loose. This is why a brand face-lifting is in order. Shop owner Fatima discloses a secret on the next version of the logo: "Soon we'll be selling buttons, only they'll be in blue,".

The color change might be a large and costly operation. Just ask Mr. Al-Masri who'll have to upload a brand new image to his mobile phone.

Seymour Facts?

If the "facts" mentioned in Seymour Hersh's New Yorker article are true, Saad Hariri has a moral obligation to come out clean.

The media in Lebanon has been focusing on the Hersh report in The New Yorker for good reasons. The central premise of the report is that the Americans, Saudis and Israelis are engaged in a clandestine operation (Hersh likens it to the Iran-contra affair) to undermine Iranian influence in the region, by actively working on a Sunni-Shiite confrontation and empowering extremist Sunni elements.

Hersh believes that the Saudis and Americans are backing fundamentalist Sunnis in Lebanon:

according to the former senior intelligence official and the U.S. government consultant. “We are in a program to enhance the Sunni capability to resist Shiite influence, and we’re spreading the money around as much as we can,” the former senior intelligence official said.
[..]American, European, and Arab officials I spoke to told me that the Siniora government and its allies had allowed some aid to end up in the hands of emerging Sunni radical groups in northern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and around Palestinian refugee camps in the south. These groups, though small, are seen as a buffer to Hezbollah; at the same time, their ideological ties are with Al Qaeda.

Hersh spoke with Alastair Crook "who spent nearly thirty years in MI6, the British intelligence service, and now works for Conflicts Forum, a think tank in Beirut", who told him:

The Lebanese government is opening space for these people to come in. It could be very dangerous.” Crooke said that one Sunni extremist group, Fatah al-Islam, had splintered from its pro-Syrian parent group, Fatah al-Intifada, in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp, in northern Lebanon. Its membership at the time was less than two hundred. “I was told that within twenty-four hours they were being offered weapons and money by people presenting themselves as representatives of the Lebanese government’s interests—presumably to take on Hezbollah

Hersh sees Saad Hariri's role in providing amnesty to the Dinnieh insurgents as part of that plan:

In 2005, according to a report by the U.S.-based International Crisis Group, Saad Hariri, the Sunni majority leader of the Lebanese parliament and the son of the slain former Prime Minister [..] paid forty-eight thousand dollars in bail for four members of an Islamic militant group from Dinniyeh. The men had been arrested while trying to establish an Islamic mini-state in northern Lebanon. The Crisis Group noted that many of the militants “had trained in al-Qaeda camps in Afghanistan.”
According to the Crisis Group report, Saad Hariri later used his parliamentary majority to obtain amnesty for twenty-two of the Dinniyeh Islamists, as well as for seven militants suspected of plotting to bomb the Italian and Ukrainian embassies in Beirut, the previous year.

Hersh elaborates on the bigger picture, and explains Jumblat's role:

Walid Jumblatt, who is the leader of the Druze minority in Lebanon and a strong Siniora supporter, has attacked Nasrallah as an agent of Syria, and has repeatedly told foreign journalists that Hezbollah is under the direct control of the religious leadership in Iran. In a conversation with me last December, he depicted Bashir Assad, the Syrian President, as a “serial killer.” Nasrallah, he said, was “morally guilty” of the assassination of Rafik Hariri and the murder, last November, of Pierre Gemayel, a member of the Siniora Cabinet, because of his support for the Syrians.

Jumblatt then told me that he had met with Vice-President Cheney in Washington last fall to discuss, among other issues, the possibility of undermining Assad. He and his colleagues advised Cheney that, if the United States does try to move against Syria, members of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would be “the ones to talk to,” Jumblatt said.

Also in a twist that would please Aounist supporters, (but which I think is utterly rubbish) is this part:

Robert Baer, a former longtime C.I.A. agent in Lebanon, has been a severe critic of Hezbollah and has warned of its links to Iranian-sponsored terrorism. But now, he told me, “we’ve got Sunni Arabs preparing for cataclysmic conflict, and we will need somebody to protect the Christians in Lebanon. It used to be the French and the United States who would do it, and now it’s going to be Nasrallah and the Shiites.
“The most important story in the Middle East is the growth of Nasrallah from a street guy to a leader—from a terrorist to a statesman,” Baer added. “The dog that didn’t bark this summer”—during the war with Israel—“is Shiite terrorism.” Baer was referring to fears that Nasrallah, in addition to firing rockets into Israel and kidnapping its soldiers, might set in motion a wave of terror attacks on Israeli and American targets around the world. “He could have pulled the trigger, but he did not,” Baer said.

**Update**
Bilal Saab from the Brookings Institute disputes Hersh's findings and argues that it is in fact Hezbollah that is in control of extreme Sunni elements. Read more..

**Update 2**
More skepticism from Tony and SM.

Black Continent

Not a good week for the Lebanese in Africa..


Amid a clear blue sky, a toy-like plane lands on a sunny landscape covered with cute Baobab trees only to be greeted by a smiley giraffe before taking off again. This is how a banner advertising OTV's fundraising "road-trip" portrays the magical continent on the Tayyar's website.

Unfortunately, not even friendly giraffes can sheer up the Lebanese in Guinea these days. Our compatriots there are so scared of the upcoming civil war they fled to Sierra Leone, the same country where the gory events in "Blood diamond" took place (A side note: This is also where Speaker Nabih Berri was born)

The Lebanese in Nigeria are not doing well either. After the alledged "escape" of Lebanese hostage Imad Saliba from his captors in oil-rich Port Harcourt, armed factions opened fire at two Lebanese construction workers killing a Zgharta native and injuring another.

Of course, things should be put in perspective. Africa is not one country as many Lebanese seem to think, although it does tend to have a bad image in the Lebanese collective memory (remember Cote D'ivoir's war two years ago that drove tens of thousands of Lebanese away? Or the plane crash that killed dozens of Lebanese in Cotonou, Benin?)

I live in Ghana, which is somewhere between Guinea, Cote D'ivoir, Benin and Nigeria, yet life here is peaceful and prospering (thank god). Even in Nigeria (a country with more than 100 million people,) the Lebanese are generally doing very well. Why else would Michel Aoun want to send Gebran Bassil there? (Bassil, incidentally, was also hit by this week's curse and had a "car accident" that forced him to fly back home for treatment)

Still, it wouldn't be bad for all of us to reflect on the case of Joseph Issa, the electronic engineer who couldn't make a living in Lebanon, who decided to flee to a remote part of Africa, only to return back as a cold corpse.

Eyes Wide Shut

So apparently the Israeli Minister of Defense doesn't take off the lens caps of his binoculars when he watches military maneuvers in the Golan heights.


No wonder the Syrians think they got a chance..

Cold Civil War

Every once in a while someone comes along and coins a memorable term that captures the essence of a crisis. Yesterday, Amin Gemayel gave us "Cold Civil War".

A cold civil war is exactly what is happening in Lebanon today. It is mostly felt in "mixed" environments.

In offices, for example, you can't avoid the sense of "otherness" emanating from the person sitting in the next cubicle. In gatherings, family or otherwise, entire conversations change if someone in the crowd is from the other camp. A rich lexicon of euphemisms has flourished, where you say "Southerner" when what you really mean to say is "Shiaa" and by extension "Northerner" replaces "Sunni".

"Those Syrian Iranian Scumbags" change into "The Opposition" and "Those Zionist American Traitors" become "The Pro-Government loyalists". Among Christians, "Those Aounist Traitors" and "Those War mongering LF Militias" both magically transform into "Our brothers in the other camp".

The fact is: we can't stand each other. We try to hide it but we secretly wish the other never existed.We can't have a real civil war because memories of the previous one are still too vivid. But at the same time, our aspirations, goals and objectives are just too conflicting.

We won't fight each other. We won't make nice. We're stuck at the brink of "mutually assured destruction".It is indeed a cold war. A Cold Civil war.

If You Build, They Will Come

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has designated Hezbollah's construction arm, Jihad al Binaa, as a terrorist organization. What difference does this make?

Not looking good

It is always tempting to dismiss Treasury department bans as nothing more than symbolic gestures. Fine, you might think, Hezbollah will just switch American made Caterpillar trucks for European made JCB ones. What's the big deal? it's America's loss.

In reality, though, the ban is aimed at Iran.

The story goes back to when Jihad Al Binaa began reconstruction work immediately after the July war. The group's no-nonsense dynamism and efficiency impressed international development funds who turned a blind eye to the Hezbollah connection and poured money onto their projects.

With a belief that Hezbollah was a "grassroots Lebanese movement" that could get the job done, the funds simply stepped over Lebanese official channels, rightly perceived to be corrupt and inefficient.

This was a win-win situation for Tehran which, as Jihad Al Binaa's main funder, was happy someone else was footing the bill while still getting the popularity boost for itself.

By stepping in, the Americans have decided to tighten the bolts on Iran.

By clearly marking Jihad Al Binaa as a terrorist organization, the Americans hope to achieve two objectives: First, they would squeeze Iran financially in a time of falling oil prices, and second, they would boost the Lebanese government's official construction works. As Stuart Levey, the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence puts it:

"At the same time that we are targeting Hizballah's construction company, the U.S. Government is also working to ensure that legitimate reconstruction efforts, led by the Lebanese Government, succeed,"

The real immediate losers would be the Lebanese "consumers" of construction who could lose the help of a highly subsidized and motivated organization.

Under March 11's Hood

The man behind the March 11 movement turned out to be a wealthy businessman. Can Merhi Abou Merhi help the Lebanese cruise to safety?


One of the people behind the March 11 movement read my post and offered an explanation. Here's what he had to say about the movement's goals and aspirations:

First of all i want to thank mustapha for publishing the idea of 11 March.

And for all the people that are afraid to trust us, they have the full right because nowadays we are suffering from this in Lebanon. But very soon everything will show up that 11 march will stay what it is right now. not neither personal goals nor any political achievements.

The man that came up with this idea was Merhi Abou Merhi. I think you have heard about him through the "Abou Merhi cruises" and orient queen and many other things.

So as I can imagine this man has a clean name in front of ALL Lebanese people. 11march is not a 3rd political movement after 8&14 no! its just a movement or gathering for the REAL Lebanese majority who got sick through all this political stuff. Tomorrow 11am the 11march movement will have an interview with different tv channels. it has already been published in many newspapers and also int he Arab world well known. for more information visit our website us to know more.

I would like to repeat again our goal is march 11 where we will gather at downtown Beirut to show the political people that at least 20% of the Lebanese people are sick of both of you..we are not against 8&14 where with them both but we want them to solve it and think of lebanon. 2weeks ago we have started with this idea and as i see now we have reached alot this shows the trust of the people to us and we know what we are doing is for the lebanese benefit. at the end i would like to tell all the guys that still think we are starting this way and than later we will change when we have a backup. i can only say sit back and watch what will happen. elections are coming up soon and NO ONE FROM OUR MOVEMENT SPECIALLY MERHI ABOU MERHI will have anything to do with it. and again i hope to have your support and i hope that you publish our website to friends and relatives so that this idea which is lebanon first with NO personal goals will gain what it should gain.

Thank you very much.
Atef Abou Merhi

More at The Daily Star

Civil Disobedience?

Hezbollah’s latest threat of civil disobedience is just a bluff.

A few weeks before “black Tuesday” -when opposition mobs cut off important streets using burning tires- Samir Geagea, the leader of the LF and a central March 14 figure had a challenge for the opposition: If you were as popular as you claim you are, why don’t you call for a general strike? This way we’ll get to see who really supports you.

To my surprise, the opposition did end up calling for a general strike. They can’t pull it off, I told myself. Where was the catch? I couldn’t figure it out until the answer came in the form of black smoke. Apparently, to our democratic “opposition”, a general strike is top-down business. It’s something you impose on the rest of the Lebanese.

In this light, it is worth looking at the threat of civil disobedience propagated by an “opposition source” in Assafir. You see, the threat the opposition is "considering" is so hollow the “source” didn’t even bother reveal itself.

The same people who couldn’t convince shop-keepers of shutting down their shops for just one day are actually trying to convince us that they can persuade their followers to quit their bread-earning jobs until further notice.

The typical argument of a civil disobediant should sound like this:
I have decided that I no longer want to teach in this school because a politician somewhere wants a bigger share of the ruling cake.

Hariri Will Not Drop His Guns

There is only one argument that might convince Saad Hariri of dropping Samir Geagea and Walid Jumblat: The disarming of Hezbollah.

A very tight grip

By announcing that "there are factions (within the majority) that have an interest in a solution and that are seeking a solution. And there are internal forces that do not have an interest in a solution.”, Hassan Nassrallah effectively culminates an orchestrated yet futile “divide and conquer” strategy.

The Syrian newspapers, the opposition’s media and just about every March 8 politician have been towing the same line after February 14’s speeches: “Hariri good, Jumblat and Geagea bad”

It is still not clear why they are playing such an obvious game. Without Geagea and Jumblat, Hariri is literally defenseless and would be eaten alive by the mobs in the "resistance"

March 14 knows this very well, and as Failasoof pointed out in my previous post: March 14’s leaders are just playing a good cop-bad cop game.

Perhaps when listening to Hariri’s ‘friendly’ speeches next time, Nassrallah should reflect very well on one of Al-Capone’s most memorable quotes:
You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone.

Monkey Business

Today’s impressive turnout was tarnished by useless, sometimes harmful gimmicks.


Apparently, a lot of people showed up. Video footage shows thousands and thousands of people defying terror to pay homage to a great man. The message was clear: the anti-Syrian majority is definitely not “fictional”.

Yet something wasn’t quite right. The event at times seemed personal and unprofessional, and I’m not talking about Nazek’s never-ending, sleep inducing ‘poem’.

It is understandable when the public gets carried away by emotion, but I still can’t see the benefits of a (otherwise respected) public speaker calling another country’s leader a monkey (and a snake, and a whale, half a man, Israeli product...etc).

Don’t get me wrong: Assad is indeed a despicable, loathsome murderer, but I still can’t understand why devote your time writing a speech that is the equivalent of poking your nose at someone.

Why lose the calm confidence? Why bring down the level of discourse? Sure the public got a blast, but why risk an irrational reaction from next door’s dictator? What is Walid Jumblat’s plan for countering a Syrian border closure for example? Would he compensate our exporters?

The other side is busy winning hearts and minds by writing editorials in newspapers, and all we’re doing is behaving like buffoons.

Bang Bang

Regardless of who committed today's atrocities, it is directed at tomorrow's Christian crowd.


As soon as the news broke up, the blame game began.

The anti-government, pro-Syrian coalition (March 8) thinks it's obvious who did it:
The evil Americans and Zionists are mobilizing their agents to boost their allies in the Seniora Government. They argue that the (insert CIA or Mossad here) planted these bombs to orchestrate a large public revulsion that would increase the number of participants in tomorrow's rally.

How is it possible, they always ask, that every time March 14 finds itself in trouble, something like this comes up and boosts their popularity?

The pro-government, anti-Syria coalition (March 14) on the other hand, immediately blamed the incident on Damascus: The mischievous regime of Bashar el Assad wants to intimidate the Christians out of coming down in record numbers to commemorate Hariri's Assassination's anniversary.

To March 14, The objectives can't be more obvious: The Syrians, in such an act, would achieve two goals: First, they would diminish the Christian crowd tomorrow and boost Michel Aoun's claims of Cristian representation. Second, they would send a message to Lebanese Christians that their Sunni allies are not reliable when it comes to their security (hence the FPM's relentless criticism of the -Sunni- Interior Minister for not properly doing his job). And that they are better off allying themselves with the Syrians.

As Saad Hariri, a March 14 leader, puts it:"[the incident is meant] to terrorize people who are willing to come to mark the second anniversary"

It is symbolic, the loyalists might point out, that the explosions took place in Bekfaya, the only place in Metn that didn't vote for Michel Aoun but voted instead for Pierre Gemayyel, who was himself assassinated a few months ago. It is also telling that Amin Gemayel, Pierre's father, who had a meeting with George W. Bush just a few days ago, is on his way back to Lebanon.

Quite a welcome he's getting.