Let's Pretend We're Enemies

The success of the Arab summit will depend on whether or not the Arab masses believe that Saudi Arabia is becoming less friendly with America.

The Arabs Are Coming

Let's say you're Saudi Arabia and you're stuck with a strategic regional rival, Iran, whose President keeps blaring anti-western rhetoric that the Arabs just love to hear. How do you confront such a rampant threat?

How about restoring Arabism from the freezer to frame this conflict as one between Arabs and non Arabs (read Persians), mixing in some make-believe anti-Americanism to bring back the hardliners from Iran's lap into the fold, while discretely reshaping the Arab project into a more moderate and progressive project to placate western countries?

Don't bother worrying about what seems like an American/Saudi rift. In fact, the louder the noise, the merrier.

Who's The Guest?

Emile Lahoud insists that Lebanese PM Seniora will attend the Arab summit as a 'guest'. The Saudis don't agree

Don't let those pesky Arabs bully you

The Baabda palace issued a statement that the Arab League summit was for "kings, heads of state and princes" and that anyone else is only considered as a "guest."

Perhaps Mr. Lahhoud, who will be traveling abroad the MEA, should pick up a copy of the free "Al-Hayat" newspapers available on board. The newspaper, which is a Saudi Government media outlet, published today the agenda of the coming Arab summit. Here's the wording on Lebanon:

كما تناقش القمة توفير الدعم السياسي والاقتصادي للحكومة اللبنانية بما يحفظ الوحدة الوطنية وأمن لبنان واستقراره وسيادته على كامل أراضيه

Translation:
The summit will discuss providing political and economic support to the Lebanese Government to keep national unity and the security and stability of Lebanon and its sovereignty over all its territory.

It's obvious who the host thinks the unwelcome guest is.

Is War Nigh?

Something deep in my gut is not comfortable with the latest Iranian British row.


I was having a mental exercise the other day. I was trying to figure out how the U.S would ever pull off a war on Iran with all the troubles it's having at home with Iraq.

One of the 'creative' scenarios I thought of was this: The British would provoke the Iranians, the Iranians would over-react, Britain would then declare war and the US would have to "return the favor to our allies". A great excuse: "We can't leave our friends in this alone. They stood by us when we needed them most"

It's not as far-fetched as you might imagine. Just think of this: Britain has been the most hardline country when it comes to Iran in the last few weeks. From reports in its press about impending American air-Strikes on Iran to hardline comments made by the British ambassador to the Security Council about the futility of giving Iran second chances.

By seizing 15 UK royal marines for "suspicious acts", Iranians are effectively trying to get back at the Brits. Remember, we're talking about a country that went to war over a tiny Island at the other end of the world. The Brits are not happy. They are "Demanding" the release of the marines, you could actually smell the "or-else" in between the lines.

More worrying are the large scale Israeli-American missile defence exercises for what analysts said would be in the event of a war with Iran. America won't launch a war with Iran before warning the Israelis, and it seems they did.

The British media already seems very mobilized. Could this incident be the beginning of World War III? Let's hope not..

Crystal Ball Or Folly?

Thomas Friedman suggested that the King of Saudi Arabia should declare the next Arab peace initiative from the Israeli parliament.

A wild speculations from an out-of-touch western journalist? Perhaps. It would have been more so if the writer weren't Thomas Friedman, the journalist to whom King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, rather weirdly, first announced his Peace Plan back in 2002.

Tom Friedman's articles are regularly translated into Arabic in Al-Sharq Al Awsat and Al-Arabiya, (with few exceptions like this anti-Saudi article) both Saudi establishment media outlets. So Friedman, more than any other western journalist, is supposed to have the Saudi "ear".

Still, it is unclear whether today's article was a leak to prepare the public or simply unsolicited advice (more likely). What did he say?

Friedman starts by saying that Saudi Arabia has become "the new Egypt", the new leader in the Arab world, and praises the kingdom for its assertive diplomacy and its king's "integrity". Then he goes straight to the beef:

What the moribund Israeli-Palestinian talks need most today is an emotional breakthrough. Another Arab declaration, just reaffirming the Abdullah initiative, won’t cut it. If King Abdullah wants to lead — and he has the integrity and credibility to do so — he needs to fly from the Riyadh summit to Jerusalem and deliver the offer personally to the Israeli people

Then Friedman goes to the nuts and bolts of his "humble suggestion":

the Saudi king [should] make four stops. His first stop should be to Al Aksa Mosque in East Jerusalem, the third holiest site in Islam. There, he, the custodian of Mecca and Medina, could reaffirm the Muslim claim to Arab East Jerusalem by praying at Al Aksa.
[..]
From there, he could travel to Ramallah and address the Palestinian parliament, making clear that the Abdullah initiative aims to give Palestinians the leverage to offer Israel peace with the whole Arab world in return for full withdrawal
[..]
From there, King Abdullah could helicopter to Yad Vashem, the memorial to the six million Jews killed in the Holocaust. A visit there would seal the deal with Israelis and affirm that the Muslim world rejects the Holocaust denialism of Iran. Then he could go to the Israeli parliament and formally deliver his peace initiative."

Alright, I guess he is just an out-of-touch Western journalist.

Targeting Education?

That they may have bombs and have it more abundantly

Almost a crime scene

It is hard to extract symbolism from today's "warning" acts. In one day, two education institutions, a venerable American university, and a school in a Beirut suburb were shaken by security warnings.

The American University of Beirut (AUB) woke up to the news of a bomb that was found in their 'secure' premises, while the students in the Gebran school in Bir Hassan came to school and found scores of soldiers and policemen searching their premises only to realize later that they were the subject of a phone hoax.

Every time Serges Brammertz, the head of commission investigating Hariri's murder, presents a progress report to the UN security council (which yesterday stopped short of naming Syria), you can expect security "warnings" in Beirut. But the fact that this time the target was two education institutes is a bit puzzling.

What are the perpetrators trying to say? If you go through with the tribunal, we will kill your youth and destroy your future?

If you have other suggestions please enlighten us.

Spin The Picture

How the same picture can mean different things.

Not Just a Picture

So what does the picture above mean to you? The answer is: It depends on where you stand.

The picture of Saad Hariri, leader of the Lebanese parliamentary majority receiving a medal of honor from the French President Jacques Chirac was featured in just about every mainstream newspaper published in Beirut this morning.

But while it was a source of pride to pro-government newspapers like Al-Mustaqbal (Hariri owned) and Annahar, the same picture was used for more malicious ends by opposition media like Al-Akhbar and Assafir. Here's how:

Both newspapers featured the picture in large format, but didn't forget to couple it with reports by Israeli newspapers that Jacques Chirac (yes, the man in the picture) had urged the Israelis to invade Syria and topple its regime while the Lebanon Israel war was still waging back in summer. According to Al-Akhbar, a staunchly pro-Syrian newspaper, Chirac's only reason was: He was angry with Assad.

This is meant to embarrass March14 and label them as pro-western stooges willing to collaborate with foreigners who want to kill innocent Arabs. Expect the row to grow as the majority is not comfortable with such a guilt-by-association position.

Axis Of Needles

A few months after the Iranians claimed that they found a cure for AIDS, a Lebanese doctor declared that he discovered a cure for Cancer.

You hear this stuff in the news all the time, but somehow it ends up fizzling.. Could these cases be any different? Could it be that all that is left is some testing time before an Iranian doctor and a Lebanese doctor share a podium for the Nobel prize for medicine?

I can Imagine Ahmadinajad telling the security council in New York next week:

"Look, our medical breaktrhough will save millions of people while our nuclear weapon can only kill tens of thousands. On the balance of it, we can have our nuclear cake, eat it, and still get both the Nobel prizes for medicine and for peace.."

Now that's a deal you can't refuse.

Michael Young responds to Joshua Landis (Remember him? the guy who won my award for the least insightful post on Lebanon?). Here's a highlight:

"Having been denied a timely chance to respond on his site, I do so here. Why should a row matter? It matters to me because in the polarized Lebanese atmosphere, fabricated accusations can be irresponsible, even dangerous. The theme of Landis' post is that Lebanon's Shiites, since they are under-represented in Parliament, are comparable to black slaves in America. For some reason Landis makes me the embodiment of those Lebanese denying Shiites their rights. This is troubling for being visibly personal in intent, given how inconsequential I am in the matter of Shiite power; but also because I've repeatedly argued that the Taif agreement needs overhauling so Shiites receive a greater stake in the system. I wrote last summer that "Taif was designed to build a post-war state. It should be re-tooled to bring the Shiite community back into the Lebanese fold."

Philosophical words from Akbar Hashimi Rafsanjani:

Now that Aoun has joined the Islamic resistance, the Islamic resistance is no longer... Euh, Islamic.
[Read more+]

Man2oush

Warning: Hazardous material if you're hungry, Lebanese and living outside of Lebanon.


Other great pictures here

Party Poopers

How the opposition's media is spoiling the fun.

While the March 14 media was celebrating the capture of a "Syrian-based terrorist network" and the March 14 Minister of Interior was busy pointing his official finger at Syrian intelligence, the Syrian-apologists immediately began casting doubt.

According to Assafir for example, the Interior minister "rushed into" accusing Syrian intelligence while Lebanese security sources were telling Pan-Arab TV stations that Al-Qaeda was behind the terrorist network.

Assafir sees no coincidence in the fact that the accusations came on the eve of the resumption of high-level talks between the European commission and Syria. (Javier Solana is coming to Damascus today) especially that Europe's agenda includes asking Syria to stop leaking weapons and terrorists to the Lebanese territories. (Assafir never says die to conspiracies)

Also according to Assafir , "Damascus visitors" see the accusations as an attempt to sabotage the efforts to restore a good relationship between the Syrians and Saudis/Egyptians.

Meanwhile, Al-Akhbar, while busy as usual splitting Lebanese Christians, cheekily slipped the fact that four of the captured are Saudi-nationals.

Finally, Aoun's FPM is still not totally convinced. Ibrahim Kenaan wants to see the evidence declassified as soon as possible, implying that the movement doesn't trust the Lebanese government. It seems the FPM is convinced that the evidence in ongoing large-scale anti-terrorist operations should always be available to the public.

Busted

Why it matters that the perpetrators of recent terrorist activities are caught.

They did this

Beirut is rejoicing. The police caught a terrorist network that confessed to committing the double-bus explosions on February 13 and to planning the assassination of 36 prominent Lebanese personalities. So why are the Lebanese so happy?

This event is significant for three reasons:

1- It will add substance to charges of Syrian meddling. All the captured carry Syrian passports and are lead by a Syrian national. This puts an end to the claims of pro-Syrian Lebanese groups that the anti-Syrians always level empty accusations against Syria, and that the perpetrators could as well be American or Israeli.

2- It will be an enormous psychological boost to wary Lebanese. Imagine living in a country where Ministers were killed regularly with impunity. The Lebanese had lost trust of the government's security agencies, while watching with envy how other countries usually catch high-profile criminals, like say Hrant Dink's killer in Turkey, in a matter of days.

3- It will deprive the opposition of an argument that sought to create moral equivalence between the pro-Syrians and the anti-Syrians. Namely that the government is not protecting its citizens and not doing its job properly, an accusation used by the likes of Michel Aoun to discredit Seniora's government (and the Minister of Interior)

The March 14 people just got a great gift on the eve of their anniversary.

And the winner for the, ehmm, least insightful post on Lebanon is..

Sarko For France

Now that Jacques Chirac announced that he will no longer stand for the French Presidency, this blog endorses the second-best candidate for Lebanon: Nicolas Sarkozi.


The fact that Nicolas Sarkozi bothered to announce a Lebanon policy is in itself comforting. The fact that those policies are sensible is even more re-assuring. Here are Sarko's "three major priorities" for Lebanon:

1- To follow-up on the UN probe into Hariri's assassination and "penalize the perpetrators."

2- To "convince Syria that Lebanon is an independent country" and to fight with all his powers to preserve Lebanon's independence

3- To convince Hizbullah into "transforming into a purely political organization by laying its weapons, and being less influenced by Iran"

Notice his choice of words: "convince Hizbullah" and "less influenced by Iran", which shows a deep understanding of the Lebanese situation and its shades of gray.

Although a Sarkozi presidency will not be good news for the Hariris, it will be good for Lebanon:

"While President Jacques Chirac succeeded in building excellent ties with Lebanon," he said, "those ties ought to be further deepened and freed from a personal outlook on things."

He said that bilateral ties between any two countries ought to be based on "clear-cut political strategies and ideologies,"

That implies a threat: If Lebanon stops being liberal and progressive, France could no longer be our best friend.

The other reason I like Sarkozi is because I don't think Segolene Royal has what it takes. Sure she's good-looking (for a change) but that's about it. She's a foreign policy lightweight, a real socialist, and she seems to hold fossilized ideas. France needs a shake-up, not a step backwards...

Lebanonism Of The Day..

So who says that having a war, an economic crisis and a political stalemate mean that you can't have a lingerie défilé by snowy mountains in Faraya, Lebanon? (more pictures 2006, 2007)

Loving life

Message

I was asked to pass this around. Would you please be kind enough to spread the news?

Hotline: 01 969999 or visit Website
Do you think people will show up?

Bkirki's Snub

Bkirki is once more giving March 14 the red eye. Here's why.

this time, ignore me at your peril

Most people in the March 14 movement were surprised when the council of Maronite bishops announced on Tuesday that a Chapter 7 resolution to the Hariri tribunal would be damaging to Lebanon.

Hariri immediately rushed to Bkirki to find out why they said that. Naharnet totally ignored the part about chapter 7 in their story, March 14 bloggers fumed and Hariri-owned Almustaqbal media was defensive in tone and said that the Lebanese people have the right to a chapter 7 resolution if everything else fails.

The reason the Maronites are cautious is simple though. With all the talk about the Saudis mending the fence between the Sunnis and the Shias, the Patriarch was sensing another 7ilf ruba3i in the making(in reference to when Hariri, Jumblatt, Nassrallah and Berri had an electoral alliance that left the Christians behind).

Bkirki wanted to remind everyone that the Christians also have sacrosanct issues. Sfeir is now making it a point that the number one priority for the Christians is NOT the international tribunal but a fair electoral law. Which to this blogger, makes perfect sense.

However, the burden is on Aoun to persuade his allies to accept a new electoral law based on small districts. After all, it is Berri and Nassrallah that have always been the most resistant to such a law.

Go North

One city's woes is another city's bliss..

Getting jiggy in Batroun

Beirut has always been the destination of Lebanese party animals everywhere. Clubbers used to look forward to the weekend to satisfy their cravings for dancing and schmoozing in the Ibiza of the Arab world.

But now that Beirut is bogged down in demonstrations and insecurity, does that mean the Lebanese will mellow down, pack their mini skirts and wait it up? Off course not! According to Assafir, everyone, including Beirutis and southerners are now heading to the northern city of Batroun, a historic port city ( pictures ) that is experiencing a boom never seen before in the entertainment and tourism sector. Crepaway is one of the latest franchises to open an outlet there and many more are coming.

So until Saad Hariri and Nabih Berri finish talking this crisis through, the Lebanese keep on partying, just a bit up North.

This Car Is A Sham

The first model of the "Sham" car, designed in Iran and built in Syria, has vroomed out of its Damascus factory.


The picture above shows the President of Syria, Bashar al Assad driving this lovely car. I wonder how many of these will show up in Beirut.

Next step? A Homsi made "Saeba" car, which will also be designed in Iran. Now that one, I can assure you, will not be driven in Lebanon.

Seniora's Bad Idea

Our Prime Minister wants the Saudis to appoint the neutral Minister. Is that a good thing?

King-Making King?

On the face of it, P.M. Seniora’s suggestion to Assafir (English @ Naharnet) today that Saudi Arabia should appoint the kingpin minister makes practical sense. As a Lebanese Minister put it yesterday on a TV show: Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world that has a good working relationship with all the parties involved in the Lebanese crisis.

Moreover, the move is a shrewd political move from Seniora, who was watching with bemusement the opposition's media and politicians waxing poetics on Saudi Arabia.

By suggesting a bigger role for the Saudis, Mr. Seniora is effectively challenging the opposition to put their money where their mouth is. Something he knows they'll refuse given their Syrian connection, and given how much the Christian wing of the opposition distrusts the Kingdom.

But Seniora's idea is flawed for two reasons.

The first reason is one of principle: The very nature of March 14, an alliance that promotes itself as a "Lebanon first" entity, forbids it from accepting such an obvious foreign patronage in the name of congruence. What is the difference between Syria's appointment of President Emile Lahhoud (a person March 14 abhors) and Saudi Arabia's would-be appointment of a kingpin Minister?

The second reason, which is related to the first, is political: Saudi Arabia, although Lebanon's largest donor and employer and traditional peace sponsor, is not popular with the generally Liberal Lebanese layman. Seniora's idea is already triggering murmurs of discontent within his Christian and Druse allies, not to mention the liberally-inclined Sunnis (this blogger included).

Many are secretly thinking: Is Giving Saudi Arabia the power to dissolve the Lebanese government if the winds of friendship change the answer to our stalemate?

A Party In Decline

A party that once captured the imagination of the Lebanese is slowly losing its relevance.


I still remember the days when the FPM screamed what we all only dared to whisper. The very mention of the name Michel Aoun, their leader, used to give us hope that one day, perhaps, Lebanon will be free and sovereign again.

With a heavy heart, I see nothing today but decline to a once glorious party.

One sign of the decline is the precipitous loss of political influence. The FPM is set to be the biggest loser in the proposed solution to the current crisis between Tehran and Riyadh.
Mr. Aoun (who is talking these days of a "lebanese solution" to the problem) had invested credibility and prestige in two objectives, non of which was accomplished: Changing the Prime Minister (who didn’t have to run to the exit as Aoun had predicted), and early elections (A cause he personally championed in an Annahar editorial). Even Nabih Berri, his ally, is singing the praises of an upcoming solution that could take the form of a 19-11 government sharing under the premiership of Sanioura.

Another sign is the change of the FPM's nature. The same party that was once a paragon of secularism is now campaigning on the basest religious instincts of its core constituents to survive (The biggest issues with the FPM nowadays seem to be Christian representation in Ministries and high office and Muslims ganging up on Christians in the previous elections).

While the FPM used to inspire and give hope, it now beams negativity, hate and petty feelings through its media and people. The Tayyar’s website always focuses on negative aspects of political opponents (apparently, one wants to undermine the Christians using Wahhabi friends and petrodollars, and the other wants to arm itself to the teeth to kill his fellow Christians).

As anyone with Aounist friends would attest, defensive partisans always justify themselves by saying: "Everyone else is bad", or "you are much worse than us". It is telling that OTV shares are not selling very well (to the point of having to send envoys to Africa to solicit donations).

Even the Future seems bleak for a party that always prided itself on youth. With an eccentric octogenarian as its leader, the rank-and-file should have prepared a successor by now, but the topic is taboo and the people most trusted by the aging leader (Kanaan and Bassil) are notoriously uncharismatic. The party is in danger of being a heart attack away from collapsing.

The FPM has many intelligent and bright people in its ranks. Perhaps someone might rise and save the party and restore its glorious days. But until that happens, the FPM will continue in its slow and painful decline.

Face Saving..

The Saudis and the Iranians might finally unclog the Lebanese stalemate today. But what about the thorny government composition issue?

March 14 are adamant: we will not give away a third-plus-one to the opposition. The opposition is even more determined: we will not let go of the third-plus-one. This seems like a zero-sum game. How are the wise oracles in Riyadh and Tehran planning to solve it?

Annahar gave us a glimpse this morning. You see, the eleventh minister will actually be an independent, but it will be announced that he's from the opposition. Of course, the announcement will be that the International Tribunal would be simultaneously ratified.

Now the real problems can begin: How many Ministers will Aoun get? Will Charles Rizk and Elias el Murr keep their portfolios? What about the presidency?

Like everything in Lebanon, wait and see..

Sitting Together

The USA will sit on the same table with Syria and Iran.

Can he be a friend?

Every time someone starts denying something aggressively, I take a hint that that something might happen. For example, I only knew that Washington was serious about attacking Iran when they started strongly denying such plans.

This is why Condy Rice's affirmation to Jumblat that the US won't abandon Lebanon, or Hisham Melhem's reporting from Washington that there is no change in policy towards Damascus and Tehran are not exactly comforting.

I don't know why The Washington Post is happy. After all, we are talking about Iran and Syria. Countries who are already busy celebrating a victory: The US has gone down to its knees. They will talk with us. Hoorraay, we can kill more people now.

But then again, the US is saving face with us. You see, America is not "talking" with Iran and Syria. It just happens to be present in the same regional conference with them. A conference which was organized by the government in Baghdad and has nothing to do with Washington, yeah right...

Let's hope rice doesn't "find herself" sitting next to Larigani and Moallem in a cheeky placing by a "well-intentioned" Iraqi government.

(Pssst, on a totally unrelated note, pro-engagement heavyweights -Kissinger, Baker, Negroponte- have all gathered on Tuesday night at the Library of Congress. Of course, it's just a coincidence that James baker told the audience, “America must be prepared to talk to our enemies.” this definitely has nothing to do with the coming "sitting" with Syria and Iran)