Of Death and Opportunities

The death of the Pope and of Mp Ali al Khalil present a set of opportunities and threats for the government.

When Mp. Albert Mkheiber died a few years ago of old age, a special election was held in the Christian metn region to fill the vacancy he left.
That election was all eye-candy for the pro-Syrian loyalists. The Christians’ bickering among each other for a “lousy” parliamentary seat provided A-class gloating material for the then-complacent loyalists.
At the end, Ghassan Mkheiber emerged as a consensus candidate.

Why am I bringing this up?

It’s simply a reminder that the Lebanese constitution requires a special election to be held sooner than later, in the event of the death of an MP member.

Yesterday, loyalist Mp. Ali Al-khalil died in an unfortunate car accident, and it seems that the government will be facing its first post-Hariri-Assassination election sooner than it had planned.

This will be a test for all parties involved, and it will give us a good preview of the coming spring elections.

Mr Al-khalil is in a staunchly pro-Syrian Shiite constituency (the South), but it would be worth noting how the Americans, Syrians, Loyalists and opposition are going to behave.

Will the opposition present and promote a candidate? Will it be free to do so? Will it unite behind one figure? Will the government allow foreign observers? Will the Americans insist they be present? Will the loyalists present a candidate under the Ain-el-tineh banner? (Which will be the official launching of that gathering as an umbrella party), will the government blame “unusual circumstances” for canceling the elections and just appointing a successor? (where the family of the old MP will say that they support such a decision).

All these are questions waiting to be answered.

Meanwhile, President Lahhoud, Speaker Berri, and prime minister Karami all flew to the Vatican to display their grief. Never mind that they were too busy to send a decent envoy to the latest Arab Summit, all they know is that all three of them should be in the Vatican. Of course, needless to say, this is a stalling tactic par-excellence. We just need to wait and see what the oppositions’ nerves, and heads, are made of.