And The Winner Is...

The Beirut Spring Has chosen Mohammad Al Safadi's "linattahid" as Lebanon's most creative electoral billboard.



Beautiful, straight to the point, with a powerful and concise message.
Plus, there's a miracle: No picture of the candidate.

A beginning, perhaps to understand that the message is more important than the person.

Marriage...Or just a summer fling?

Two media moguls’ newfound love for each other may have a great impact on shaping Lebanese public opinion.



Gebran Tueini, General Manager of Annahar group, and Saad Hariri, owner of Future T.V. network seem to be getting along very well these days. In recent electoral rallies, they proudly held hands and raised them to sheering Beiruties from Qoraitem to Tarik el Jdideh. They stood next to each other in the billboard’s electoral photograph, they’ve been waxing nice words about each other for the last few weeks, and they seem to be enjoying it. Aren’t they just cute?

This is showing very well in their respective outlets. Annahar’s main page today featured two large images: one of Gebran, one of Saad, both saluting their happy constituencies congratulating them for their elections. The first item on the Future T.V. news bulletin today was an interview with “M.P. Gebran Teuni”, explaining why the “low” turnout is not really a low turnout and disagreeing with Michel Aoun.

How long will the young lovebirds with mustaches last?

Cynics argue that the Hariri-Tueni relationship is nothing but a short-lived electoral alliance. They would say that Gebran Tueni is using Hariri for the Beirut Sunni voters, whereas Hariri is using Tueni to avoid Annahar’s criticism of the election results. In other words, It’s all just a one night stand that has nothing to do with love.

More careful observers will disagree: this relationship has been growing up steadily since Hariri the father was killed.

Annahar has a very strong relationship with Mr. Jumblat, Hariri’s staunchest and most stable political ally. Marwan Hmedeh, who is both Jumblat’s political brother and Gebran Tueni’s uncle, was the person who made it happen. Ali Hmedeh, his brother and a seasoned writer in Annahar is now the host of a widely watched political show on Future T.V.

Annahar and Future T.V are using the same language to describe events, they are focusing on the same stories, and, they are facing the same enemies, namely: General Aoun. Ghassan Tueni’s editorial today was nothing short of a slap in Aoun’s face.

This affair, like most interfaith marriages, is making the public a bit nervous. Future T.V’s core Sunni watchers are surprised to see the schmoozing going on between the Hariri family and the Lebanese forces. Also, a lot of Aounists, who have long been regular Annahar readers, are feeling stabbed in the back and left in the cold.

Lebanon’s media has entered the melting pot. If the rest of the Lebanese follow, then maybe, just maybe, we will live happily ever after..

Lebanese Elections Snippets

This is a section about little things happening while the polling is taking place.

- A visibly happy Gebran Tueni, who was voting for the first time ever, was asking General Michel Aoun not to punish Beirut. Why participate in the other districts and ask for a boycott in united Beirut? tueni wondered. Is there a better christian representation for Beirut than myself and Solange? He added

- Sassine square in mainly-Christian Ashrafieh was a scene of action. On one side the Lebanese forces' election machine was distributing the Hariri list and asking for a high turnover. On the other, cacophonous FPM youngsters wearing orange tshirts are distributing orange flyers asking for a boycott. M.P. Michel Pharaon was skeptical: Those orange-wearing kids don't look Beiruti to me.

- The local T.V. coverage is indicative. While hariri-owned Future T.V. was portraying the elections as a victory to the Lebanese people, stressing the high turnover and using words like "celebration" and "ecstasy", refuseniks like LBC and New T.V were skeptical. Their reporters were trying to put words in the mouths of interviewees to the effect of these elections being useless. Gebran Tueni and Solange Jmeiyel did not fall for that trap.

Criticizing Islam

Moslems from Pakistan to Morocco are still ferociously protesting a Newsweek report about the Koran being violated. Meanwhile, yet another innocent (Japanese) person was viciously murdered in the name of Islam in Iraq, without a single act of protest. What’s wrong with us Moslems?



If I were to name the single even that made the biggest mark on my life, I would choose watching Margaret Hassan cry. That lovable aid worker who spent her whole life in miserable conditions to make sure Iraqi children lived a better life, was humiliated on T.V, forced to abandon her ever-smiley and graceful face, to plead for her life before a stunned world. Her captors proudly flaunted banners with Koranic scriptures as a background to her weeping.

This is when I decided that something is very wrong with the state of my religion today. I no longer cared about the endless stories my parents told me about the compassion of prophet Mohammad, I no longer cared about the stories of greatness in our past. I stopped believing all the arguments about those killers not being “real” Moslems but Jews who want to spoil Islam’s image. All I could think of was the report that they found Margaret’s body thrown in the middle of the desert as if she were a worthless dog.

As a regular reader of “western” media and commentary, I always stumble into the question: “Why don’t moderate Moslems speak out?”.

In the Moslem world, speaking out against the Islamic establishment is, simply put, unsafe. Some people do it because they’re very powerful, Like King Abdullah of Jordan who admiringly announced: “Islam is hijacked by the extremists”, or president Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan who regularly denounces terrorism. But even these people aren’t safe from over-zealous clerics.

Some Moslems speak out because their intellectual convictions over-ride their safety concerns, (Salman Rushdie, Irshad Manji, Ayaan Hirsi Ali). Their arguments, unfortunately, are a bit extreme and fail to convert mainstream Moslems. But Irshad's website is worth taking a look at.

Hard-core Muslims can get very touchy when you “insult” their religion. I don’t know why. It’s just the way it is. If, hypothetically, the people who flushed the Koran down the toilets were placed in the middle of an Afghanistan demonstration, they will be lynched without second thoughts. But that’s not the worrying part of the story. What’s more worrying is that mainstream Moslems who would hear of the lynching will simply shrug their shoulders and say: “well, they asked for it, they deserve it”.Apathy of the masses is the real ill, and it should be addressed.

Criticizing Islam is very delicate business. But that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t happen. Islam, in its current form, is very far from perfect. Its torch is being carried by people who think that memorizing the Koran is the paragon of knowledge (heck I even met some imams who don’t speak Arabic who have memorized the Koran without understanding a word). Five years ago, I personally walked out from a mosque in the middle of a Friday sermon and never came back because the imam asked us to throw our TVs out of the windows.

Another problem with Islam is that clerics think that they own their fellow Moslems.
I’m not talking here about people who hit other people with sticks to cover their exposed parts or go to prayers. I’m talking about clubs in the gulf countries that are designed for foreigners to have fun. Because they serve alcohol, Moslems like myself are not allowed in. So, if I was going in with a fellow Lebanese called Jean, he would be admitted in, but I wouldn’t because my name is Mustapha. So much for personal freedom.

When criticizing Islam, Subtlety is a must (just ask Theo Van Gogh or Pim Fortuin), and there are lots of messages that can reach across to the moderate masses without inflaming the gang-ho clerics. This is where the media and politicians play an important role.

For example, Moslems should be made to see that they are protesting against misguided Americans who insulted the Koran, much more than they are protesting against Moslems who are killing fellow Moslems in Iraq. THAT is a point worth pondering.

Until then, bloggers like myself who are writing anonymously from Africa, in English, will do their best to try to make a difference. But, I must say, that’s a tall order.

Raje3

Michel Aoun is said to be shaping his new alliances.

Since he is careful to preserve his image as "untarnished by corrupt politicians", he is choosing his allies carefully.

The Beirut Spring has managed to obtain sample posters from the Aoun election campaign. The slogan of the campaign is: "Raje3", or "The Return".







(P.S: Although the news background of this story is accurate, it remains a parody, hence the content of this piece is only for satire purposes and should not be confused with reality)

Re-branding

This new electoral billboard was spotted in Mount Lebanon today.


Its creators say that this is part of a new rebranding strategy. Critics argue that the new haircut is confusing the voter and taking the elections a bit too far. Supporters, especially female ones (a core target of the campaign) disagree: "He looks so handsome, he's my Hero", Said Sabine, a voter in Alley. That, apparently, is the message.

That Pesky General

Michel Aoun will be running on his own after all. Good riddance.


Red state, Blue State... Orange state

Watching Gen. Michel Aoun's performance in his press conference this morning makes you realize how much Lebanese politics have changed in the last ten years.
Except for a few political dinosaurs like Omar Karami, Lebanese politicians have long stopped shouting at journalists, attacking newspapers, and claiming that everyone is conspiring against them.

Only a terribly skewed self-image can make you think that you can actually give morality lessons to journalists in public, attack popular national independence symbols with a holier-than-thou logic, compare yourself to great historical figures, and still get away with it in the polls. I found myself asking all the time: "Is he actually saying this?”

I can't see how shooting at everyone is a good tactic. Commentators love an enemy, and if someone like Rajeh el Khoury puts Michel Aoun in his bad books, he can seriously mess him up.
Hariri had a lot of enemies, but he was careful to cultivate a good relationship with journalists from all the political spectrum, from Marcel Ghanem to Talal Salman.

I won't elaborate on why Michel Aoun is disappointing more and more people. I saw it coming long ago, and Raja did a great job with the details, but what i know is this: The coming elections will be the needle to Michel Aoun's bubble.

Until then, enjoy the spectacle, he's proving to be quite the entertainer.

Kissing the cedars goodbye

I think that I'm the first blogger to be honored by posting in the "Rafic Hariri International Airport, Beirut". I can't think of a better place to thank all of you who signed the petition (it did help, I'm sure)

P.S: Just in case you don't know, there's an awesome new cafe with Wi-fi in the waiting space, great sandwiches and coffee. If you're there one day, remember me :)

I'm leaving with my heart on my sleeves, but I hope that when I come back, the country will be the same beautiful place it has always been..

Omar Karami

If history is ever to mention Omar Karami, he would go down as the person who gave political farce a new meaning.


What me worry?

"Anti-Seducers have no self-awareness. They never realize when they are pestering, imposing, talking too much. They lack the subtlety to create the promise of pleasure." Robert Greene, the Art of seduction

In general, the Karami family is seen as an object of pride. Most Tripolitanians respect it because it offered martyrs and Lebanese independence symbols.

This reputation bothered our beloved Omar, so he decided to reverse it: he will be the exact opposite: The anti-martyr and the anti-independence.

The second day after Hariri's assassination, he was photographed with a smile on his face. He became outspoken against the independence movement and seems to have sworn that he won't save any energy creating all sorts of hurdles to the Lebanese people's aspirations: You want elections? You won't have any. A government? Not in a million years. If you can name it, I can sabotage it.

Mind you, he is not without a sense of humor; he likes to create worldwide precedents. After all, this is the man who was overthrown by a huge popular demonstration, only to be re-appointed claiming -with a straight face- a "moral majority".

He doesn't seem to know much what's going on around him: he followed the Syrians when everyone else was worried of the slightest exposure to them.
He takes pleasure in going against the people's will. He's used to it. When he's criticized, he goes into Tantrums: he huffs, he puffs, but unfortunately, he can't blow anything down.

Yesterday, he decided to boycott the election that will "produce a filthy parliament". He decided that he will form a "real opposition" soon so that Lebanon doesn't' fall into the 1559 conspiracy. I tell you guys, this man is an artist.

Dear Mr. Karami, I was kidding about that first paragraph. Don't worry, history will not say any bad thing about you, it will just forget you.

(P.S: I wanted to post this under "Parody", unfortunately, Omar Karami is just too real)

The Newfound American Sensitivity

The actions of the American Ambassador in Beirut show a profound understanding of the Lebanese state of affairs and are producing results. Who's to congratulate?


Smooth Operator

Don't be fooled by Jeffrey Feltman's baby face. This man's maneuvering on the Lebanese scene is by all standards an object of admiration. Quiet yet alert, firm yet tactful. He has managed by talking to all parties to help move the country through very transformative times, without compromising American Objectives.

American Ambassadors are notorious for their heavy-handedness: The previous Ambassador (now assistant under-secretary of state for the near east), David Satterfield, used to swagger in Hezbollah-controlled areas with camera crews just to provoke them. He was the daily staple of fiery speeches by most of the Lebanese Islamists, Nationalists and Arabists. Feltman has proved more tactful. He still visits Hezbollah-controlled areas but without the public muscle display.

He is also very alert and sensitive to potentially disruptive developments: when the Patriarch made that harmful speech, Feltman immediately assessed its significance and went straight to Bkirki to assure him that his concerns are a top American priority.

Aside from Feltman's competence, To what can we attribute this newfound American Sensitivity?

Feltman's approach is the latest outcome of a long (and bloody) process of evolution in American Foreign policy-making.
The Trials and Errors in Iraq, the experiences in Georgia, Ukraine and Russia have made the Americans experts in peaceful regime changes.
Who doesn't remember all the talk about the clash between the idealist Neocons in the pentagon and the realist pragmatists in the State Department?
Jeffrey Feltman's approach takes the best of the two worlds: a Wolfowitz idealism that makes him believe in the possibility of democracy in the Arab world, and a Kissinger pragmatism that made him negotiate with Hezbollah and the other "bad guys". Not to forget that ultimate of bad guys who was very useful in Lebanon: Jacques Chirac.

Hawkish Pragmatism could be the new signature of the Rice era. I wonder who's next on the Agenda. Egypt?

Cedar Wood

Facing a confused political situation, one should not take his eyes off the big picture: The cedar revolution is not only alive and kicking, it's also getting stronger and it will soon transform the whole region.

It is easy for any observer to notice a prevailing sense of disappointment and confusion in a lot of Lebanese these days. Obituaries of the March 14th achievement (the day where the third of the Lebanese population took to the streets in protest to Syrian hegemony, in a rare show of national unity) have been written all over the place.

Doha was speaking for a lot of Lebanese when she said:

"I'm afraid that after we, as youth, felt that we had some power to make a change, here we're back to the back-burner, back to the purgatory...not hell, but not heaven...a wait and see situation [...] silence and confusion, I can deduce, just like I feel, because I've been refusing to wake up from the dream, [...] I'm refusing to wake up from the dream, to talk sectarianism, because I am embarrassed to."

Rampurple takes it a step further and says that the Cedar revolution was crap (to the cheers and applauses of Mardsen). Some took a break from politics, hoping for better days. I personally talked about Kaek, and Maya about some hot Lebanese beauty pageant.

Drama and showbiz aside, is the "cedar revolution" really in such bad shape? Did the politicians betray the people of March 14?

The dramatized feelings of doom and gloom in the Lebanese street, media and bloggosphere are the result of two things:

- A sense of helplessness and cynicism long rooted in the Lebanese collective psyche.
This was caused by a bloody history of unfortunate events, back-stabbings, unkept promises and deceptions, causing the average Lebanese to be doubtful, angry and pessimistic.

- A perceived political scene that seems too deja-vu to be a "revolution".

But are Lebanese politics really the same?

Faysal al kassem, the host of the ubiquitous al-Jazeera T.V show "The Opposite Directions", once introduced his program by saying that the Arab world is filled with contradictions, problems, rivalries, and culture wars, all deeply buried by dictators, who preferred stability over transformative debates that could be very violent. If these dictators are removed, he goes on, the Arab world will be boiling with a high-pitched dynamic of clashes (a glimpse of which his show aims to provide.)

Such a high-pitched dynamic is what is taking place in Lebanon these days. The Syrians are gone and have taken with them a system of centralized command and support. Democracy, like a free-market economy, has no place for subsidies, and the survival is for the fittest. The political brouhaha taking place on the Lebanese scene is an orgy of smoke screens, distortions and plain fabrications that are nothing but the sound of the merciless "Natural selection" process.

Previously influential politicians (like Sleimen Frangiyeh and president Lahhoud) who were heavily supported by Syria, are going bust. Their kicking and screaming is an attempt to take everyone down with them through alarmist and sectarian rhetoric.

Politicians whose popularity have never been tested in the polls (like Micheal Aoun) are upset by the high barriers-to-entry his popular competitors are raising, so they throw accusations at them (Hariri and Jumblat are not better than ghazeleh), attempting to strengthen their negotiating power.

Religious figures whose constituencies have gotten demographically weaker in the past years are complaining of the unfairness of the process, where the "others" get to choose their Mps.

Politicians who are too weak to compete are withdrawing from the race, complaining that the elections are not giving a true choice to the people.

The Lebanese politicians have always been fighting, lying, backstabbing and coalescing against each other, but the big difference is this: they are no longer doing it to please the Syrians, they are doing it to impress the Lebanese voter.

To be fair, some of the criticism is valid. The electoral law is terrible, popular leaders can abuse their influence to annihilate their weaker rivals (through what is known by political buses). But because the politicians are now accountable to the Lebanese and to history, they understand that doing so would have long-term costs on their image and historical roles.

This is why it is no surprise that the leaders and the outside powers are proving responsible: Signs are everywhere: Jumblat has left an empty druze seat on his list so that he doesn’t humiliate Talal Arslan. Ghattas Khoury sacrificed a guaranteed seat on the Hariri list for the “greater good”. The Americans, French and Jumblat rushed to allay the patriarch’s concerns by stressing his very important role. Jumblat, Hariri and Quornet Shahwan are making nothing but conciliatory noises in face of Aoun’s aggressivness. Even Hezbollah is doing some soul searching and are removing from their lists people that are considered provocative. I also expect that the opposition might (just might) leave an empty maronite seat for Franjiyeh in the North.

Thomas Friedman said it best once:
In a Democracy, every day feels like a mess, but after a year, you'll feel that a lot of progress has been made.

Read also:
- Politics of Panic

Deceiving figures

Samir Kassir, a prominent Annahar opposition journalist with strong French connections, reveals the fallacy of the 15/64 figure in this article. (requires Arabic)

The New Crusaders

The Lebanese Christians have all the right to demand their rightful "Piece of the ruling cheese", but they're doing it in an utterly crass and irresponsible way.



It's a fact: for the last 15 years, the Lebanese Christians have not been well represented in parliament. Although the parliament is equally divided between Moslems and Christians, a big chunk of those Christians have sworn their allegiance to Hariri, Jumblat, or Berri, all Moslem leaders who carried them in their lists back in 2000. This is why it is un-acceptable for the elections to take place under the same law, if the Christians are to be properly represented.

This is in essence the crust of the Maronite bishops' fury these days.

That is a fair assessment, the Christians HAVE been wronged, but unfortunately, the bishops and the Christian elites are using the wrong means and have allied with the wrong people to bring about their grief.

Let's start with the means: the sight of bishops addressing angry and cheering crowds, with the single message of "the Moslems have wronged us all these years" is not only morally indefensible, it is also irresponsible.
It compromises the position of "moderate" Muslims like Hariri (who accepted, against his interests, an election law based on small kazaas). Moslem extremists will jump at this opportunity. We have them in the dozens, and they are waiting for the chance to jump at their minbars to counter-attack and throw red meat at their own carnivores. (I can hear it now "The Christians want to rule us the way they used to")
Before we know it, another leader will be assassinated (be it a Moslem like Jumblat or Saad Hariri, or Christian, like Aoun or Franjiyeh) and the Lebanese will jump at each other's throats all over again.
In tripoli today, cars have been roaming all day with speakers blarring an invitation for an anti-Geagea demonstration (and of course the army won't be around in lawless Tripoli)

As for the alliances: president Lahhoud and Suleimen Franjiyeh are hardly the people who should carry the torch of Christian liberation.
Suleimen Franjiyeh was berating Mrs. Sitrida Geagea for making alliances with the "others" –a.k.a Moslems- against the "interests of Christians". Never mind that Franjieh is only doing this because his head will role if the North remains a mouhafaza (big electoral district), and that he gladly approved of this law in 2000, when it suited him.
Franjyeh is being very incendiary: He is accusing the Tripoli Muslim voters of being confessional, only because he secretly knows that they won't forgive him for the comments he had made about Hariri being the "multi-headed snake". He also mentioned yesterday that "the Moslems would be furious if we touched the premiership", but "we, the Christians are dealing lightly with our presidency". Should he be reminded that it was Karami that was ejected from the premiership, to the cheers of many Moslems, whereas Lahhoud kept his seat because the Patriarch didn't want him to be humiliated and was busy making deals with him? Why are we here? Isn't it because lahhoud and Karami conspired with the Syrians to let the constitutional deadlines pass?

Besides, why is LBC suddenly giving Franjiyeh and Lahhoud all the air time in the world? Why is the Patriarch giving them all the ear-time?

Anyway, it's not too late to fix this mess. There is an opposition general meeting this afternoon, and it should address this issue. The electoral law should be adjusted, but free riders like lahhoud and Franjyieh should be publicly isolated. The Americans are already fretting about the bishops "adding fuel to the fire", opposition commentators are starting to talk about a "revolution against the opposition", and some are going to the extreme of saying that "the Maronite bishops are themselves the remnants of the Syrian security regime".

This bubble HAS to be deflated and moderates everywhere are invited.

I have once enthusiastically suggested that patriarch Sfeir should be elected as a Pope because of his wisdom and moderation.
I must admit: I was wrong and I'm very disappointed.

Kaek

Politics have been very divisive these days, so i decided to post a little thing from my personal blog, something that i'm sure the Lebanese are united around: The very delicious Kaek, or Ka3ek
---------------------------------------------------

I had Kaek for breakfast today. Kaaek is a typical Lebanese on-the-road snack. In French, it's called "une galette". It's a sort of sesame-covered bagel that has a distinct delicious taste to it.
This is how a Tripoli kaaek vendor looks like:


(notice the Lebanese flag)

Kaaek is usually stuffed with greek cheese, summak (a special red spice), or both. It is then char-grilled until the cheese melts. These days, some people add cream cheese too. Older people scoff at this. Kids these days! They don't eat the way they used to.

We, The People..

In the polls, we should give our favorite politicians a slap on the wrist.

The Elections are getting closer, the campaigns are being prepared and the alliances are taking form. There's a worrying trend though:
Politicians we like are telling us to vote for politicians we don't like.

Sometimes, political alliances are justified, but sometimes they are outward bizarre: Aoun making alliances with Hezbollah, Franjyieh or Lahhoud would be like an African-American allying with the Klu Klux clan.

It is understandable that politicians make alliances, especially with such a distorted election law. It is also understandable that voters support such alliances (to preserve the credibility of their representatives when they make electoral promises). What is not understandable is the candidates taking the voters for granted.

Elections give people two kinds of power: the power to choose the people they deem fit, and the power to punish those they deem otherwise.
Politicians are thinking that they can take the second power away from their voters.
I for one would never vote for Suleiman Franjyieh even if Hariri, Musbah el Ahdab or Nassib Lahhoud ask me to. Simply because I believe that Suleiman Franjyieh deserves to be punished.

Nabil bou Monsef from Annahar once said on a T.V show that March 14th marked the end of the Era where a politician thinks that he can control his constituency. Not everyone is so optimistic: Rajeh al Khoury, Also from Annahar, has lamented today the "Elections that have already taken place".

The Lebanese voter is neither amnesic nor stupid, and he will exercise his duty to choose the people HE thinks are capable of running the country.

The Orange Revolution

It so happened that I was driving from Beirut to Tripoli on the Day Michel Aoun is coming back to Lebanon after 15 years of exile, and what a sight that was!

I thought I knew how popular the general were, but what I saw on my way was very impressive.

To get an idea about how many people are mobilizing to give him his hero’s welcome, take a look at these pictures. These have been taken while I was driving at 70 MPH. I wasn’t even looking, but wherever I point, I can shoot some Aoun Supporters.

Those young men and women are going by the Busload to Beirut. And I do mean BUSLOADS, as in convoys and convoys of busses with people who are dangerously perched from the windows, wearing orange, proudly hoisting Lebanese flags, holding Aoun pictures and looking genuinely thrilled.

From what I saw, I would estimate that the average age of Aoun’s supporters is about 23, with a very high female percentage (very attractive ones I must say)... Still, there’s lots and lots of them, scattered on the highway from Beirut to Tripoli.

Although the number is far less than the one in march 14, politicians take note, this is just one man.

My Hero Is Better Than Your Hero

Ahh, The Lebanese, we love hyperboles..
Did you know for instance that our road to liberation passes by Washington, Paris and... Johannesburg?

Michel Aoun: Lebanon's Howard Dean

Michel Aoun, The returning exiled former Lebanese general has a lot in common with the ex Democratic U.S. presidential candidate. However, The most significant similarity is still not discovered: Like Mr. Dean’s, General Aoun’s popularity is a paper giant that won’t last very long.

“I have always supported Michel Aoun, but I never knew that the Aounists were so organized, numerous and well financed”.

This is what my friend told me yesterday. Her amazement was not without foundations: These days, The Aounists have been engaged in some serious grass-root muscle flexing: Cross country rallies and advertising campaigns that can only be matched by the gigantic multi-million-dollar Hariri machine. But will the hero’s welcome be a good indication of the long-term future of the Aounist movement?

When I see a group that is angry as hell, that has a simple, strong, and defined message, that is well organized using modern communications, that has a disciplined, young and educated grass-root, all rallying loudly around a populist leader, I can’t help but think of Howard Dean’s followers, the Deaniaks (Dean + Maniac –to all Lebanese, no pun intended-).

Like Howard Dean, Michel Aoun is a man of principles with populist instincts. A lot of young Lebanese voters will wax poetics about how Michel Aoun, unlike all other Lebanese politicians, stood firmly against the Syrian Occupation since the very beginning. Unlike other politicians, he never compromises, they would say.

Do you remember “The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party” line Howard Dean was famous for?
For those unfamiliar with American politics, this refers to the group of highly-educated, young democrats who think that the Democratic party is starting to look a lot like the Republican: Hawkish on Iraq, soft on businesses and liberal on trade. They believe that their party has lost its soul through compromise, and that it should revert to its roots.

Unfortunately, both Howard Dean and Michel Aoun are unfamiliar with the term “electability”. History might refer to them favorably, but the ballot boxes have different criteria. After all, the voters are not only young and principled academians who cherish their nation. They are also business owners who want to hire cheap Syrian labor, producers who want to reach the lucrative Syrian market, consumers who would rather buy cheap Syrian vegetables than super-expensive Lebanese ones, and people who simply don't want their president to have anything to do with the military anymore.

There are two other reasons why Michel Aoun's influence looks larger today than its true size:

1- There is the psychological principle of rebellion: Everything that is forbidden has a strange, exciting appeal to it, but once Aoun will be back, he will suddenly look shorter than we thought he were.

2- His message has, well, expired. The Syrians are out.
Aoun should start offering plans for the future other than "resisting the Syrian occupation" that worked so well for him so far.

Michel Aoun will indeed grab a big share in parliament in the coming election, but for all of you thinking about him as the next president, please chill out, sooner or later he will give us " the scream " and we'll all wake up to who he really is.