Michel Aoun: Lebanon's Howard Dean

Michel Aoun, The returning exiled former Lebanese general has a lot in common with the ex Democratic U.S. presidential candidate. However, The most significant similarity is still not discovered: Like Mr. Dean’s, General Aoun’s popularity is a paper giant that won’t last very long.

“I have always supported Michel Aoun, but I never knew that the Aounists were so organized, numerous and well financed”.

This is what my friend told me yesterday. Her amazement was not without foundations: These days, The Aounists have been engaged in some serious grass-root muscle flexing: Cross country rallies and advertising campaigns that can only be matched by the gigantic multi-million-dollar Hariri machine. But will the hero’s welcome be a good indication of the long-term future of the Aounist movement?

When I see a group that is angry as hell, that has a simple, strong, and defined message, that is well organized using modern communications, that has a disciplined, young and educated grass-root, all rallying loudly around a populist leader, I can’t help but think of Howard Dean’s followers, the Deaniaks (Dean + Maniac –to all Lebanese, no pun intended-).

Like Howard Dean, Michel Aoun is a man of principles with populist instincts. A lot of young Lebanese voters will wax poetics about how Michel Aoun, unlike all other Lebanese politicians, stood firmly against the Syrian Occupation since the very beginning. Unlike other politicians, he never compromises, they would say.

Do you remember “The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party” line Howard Dean was famous for?
For those unfamiliar with American politics, this refers to the group of highly-educated, young democrats who think that the Democratic party is starting to look a lot like the Republican: Hawkish on Iraq, soft on businesses and liberal on trade. They believe that their party has lost its soul through compromise, and that it should revert to its roots.

Unfortunately, both Howard Dean and Michel Aoun are unfamiliar with the term “electability”. History might refer to them favorably, but the ballot boxes have different criteria. After all, the voters are not only young and principled academians who cherish their nation. They are also business owners who want to hire cheap Syrian labor, producers who want to reach the lucrative Syrian market, consumers who would rather buy cheap Syrian vegetables than super-expensive Lebanese ones, and people who simply don't want their president to have anything to do with the military anymore.

There are two other reasons why Michel Aoun's influence looks larger today than its true size:

1- There is the psychological principle of rebellion: Everything that is forbidden has a strange, exciting appeal to it, but once Aoun will be back, he will suddenly look shorter than we thought he were.

2- His message has, well, expired. The Syrians are out.
Aoun should start offering plans for the future other than "resisting the Syrian occupation" that worked so well for him so far.

Michel Aoun will indeed grab a big share in parliament in the coming election, but for all of you thinking about him as the next president, please chill out, sooner or later he will give us " the scream " and we'll all wake up to who he really is.