Unholy Trinity

(If you still want to read about the Lebanese in Israel, I recommend Carine's excellent opinion piece)
Hussein has noticed from the discussions that our affiliations greatly shape our ideas. This is why he is tackling the problem from the source: Indoctrination.
How are YOU going to teach your children about religion?

Are people born into a religion? It is definitely not genetic.

Question 1 - Why do most people take it for granted that they were born as Muslims, Christians or Jews…etc?

I would agree to the notion that people are raised as Muslims/Christians by their parents. But then comes

Question 2 – What’s the difference between “raising” your kids as Muslims/Christians and “brainwashing” them into adopt those beliefs?

I think most of you would agree that religions do not conform to the rules of logic. Those of you who are “followers” of a certain faith might not go as far as to call them dogmatic, but that’s what they are. There is never a logical sequence of thought to arrive at the set of beliefs you are adopting. If there were one, we simply wouldn’t have so many religions around us all claiming to be true.

I like to make the distinction between “believing” in something and being “convinced” that something is true. The latter requires sound logic and the ability to ARGUE and convince (or be convinced) others of your convictions. Can you “convince” a Christian that the Koran is a holy book?

I personally have my own beliefs, but I do not follow any organized religion. I do not want anyone to tell me what to believe in and how. I refuse to be like a mere “follower”. But I do respect those who follow organized religions, as long as they keep an open mind and do not try to project their beliefs on others, including their own children.

Question 3 – Do you have the right to present your beliefs to your children as being THE ONE AND ONLY TRUE way? Or are you morally obliged to expose them to the various faiths and ideas instead of YOU choosing their beliefs for them?

I felt the need to post this after all the previous talk about people being different and not being able to live together… Most of those people assume that societies are stagnant, very hard to change, and some move on to cement that by proposing segregation.

That assumption is false. People just have to overcome their psychological and social inertia and start adopting a more open-minded, enlightened, scientific outlook to cultures and religions.

And to all cynics out there, it is a very real and realizable idea. You just have to start with yourselves and the way you will raise your kids.

The Ideas above reflect the opinion of their contributor (Hussein) and do not necessarily represent The Beirut's Spring point of view.

The Beirut Spring Had invited readers to publish their own pieces. You are welcome to contribute.

Siblings Or Enemies?

The issue of the Lebanese who fled to Israel after the liberation of the south deserves a real and mainstream debate.


It was THE hottest issue in the parliamentary debate, but like in most other issues, it’s being used to score political points, not to find solutions. Too bad. The issue of the Lebanese who fled to Israel is real and needs to be addressed with less shouting and more level-headedness.

The parliamentary showdown had two protagonists: The FPM on one hand, and the Alliance of the so-called Al-khatt-al-kawmi people, represented by Hezbollah, Amal and the PSP. The polarization is so pronounced you can hardly tell that the two parties are talking about the same issue.

To the FPM (and to the secret backers who are not talking because they are represented in the government,) the issue is humanitarian: The “refugees” are Lebanese citizens, said Michel Aoun. They were the victim of the government’s neglect of the south and the Lebanese Army was not sent to protect them after the Liberation, he maintained. This is why they deserve to come back.

But nobody asked the “traitors” to go to Israel and to ask for the enemy’s citizenship, retorted Hezbollah, they should have surrendered to the Lebanese judicial system –which was very lenient with the “agents”, they grumble- Jumblat Echoed that sentiment in yesterday’s AlSafir, and backed it with an aggressive campaign to discredit Aoun in the parliament (see previous article)

“They were scared” insisted M.P. Kannaan from the FPM. “The word they heard from (sayyed) Hassan Nassrallah was that the resistance will come and slither their throats while they’re sleeping”- Nonsense! Answered Naim kassem of Hezbollah, “Sayyed Nassrallah is a great national leader and marja3iyyé wataniyyé (for however you translate that), and he would never say anything like that.

The problem with such a debate is that it’s polarizing the Lebanese people into sectarian stereotypes. Aoun, (and secretly, the LF) are only echoing the sentiments of the Patriarch, who wants the Christians who went to Israel to come back and to be forgiven. The Moslems, on the other hand (including Almustaqbal Newspaper who called them “agents” in this morning’s issue), are intolerant of another far-reaching amnesty.

Some people are finally starting to shape the debate by giving it more substance and less sizzle. Amal’s Ali al Khalil said today that the debate shouldn’t be confessional, and that, in an apparent hint to the Patriarch, contrary to common believe, there are a lot of Shias among the “agents”. He gave the problem a security dimension by saying that Lebanon’s security situation cannot handle another influx of people who have a high probability of being Israeli Agents. The ball is in Michel Aoun’s court to explain how, in case the people came back, they would be sorted between suspects and normal citizens.

The most important thing is that the issue be debated openly among the Lebanese people, through the media, educational institutions and civil society. The a-priori alignments along sectarian lines and the culture of delegating to the leaderships and representatives should be challenged. The politicians have their agendas. We have a country to build.

Bad Apples, Good Oranges

Don’t criticize Michel Aoun just for the sake of it.


When I was in Lebanon a few months ago, I wanted to finalize my Army Draft status. I was excited to learn that my situation (working abroad) entitles me to a permanent exemption from the mandatory draft. So I drove up to the ta3bi’a (barracks) to get more information. I was referred to an office marked: “Lebanese Abroad.”
A soldier was sitting on a desk. He was a bit younger than me. I walked in and told him about my situation. He smiled, and showed me a list of documents I should get to complete my exemption. He was very nice, very patient, and above all, very respectful.
The list contained a document that needs to be fetched from Sureté Generale. It was at the height of the Jamil el Sayyed era and I was frightened to my bones(It was at the time when the Beirut Spring was very critical of him). But I braved my way to their department in Addlieh. To my surprise, I got the same efficient service with a smile. A group of young men and women (yes women), wearing their trademark black berets, were being very nice, respectful, friendly, and yes, helpful. The whole endeavor took only 10 minutes.

Why am I bringing this up?

Yesterday, in his parliamentary speech, M.P. Michel Aoun said that the Lebanese security establishment is demoralized. Our young men and women have been at the wrong end of political bickering just because of some bad apples in high ranks. He has a point. The members of the Army, Surete General and other agencies (Ajhizes) are our brothers and sisters who are sacrificing their lives for their jobs, and from my personal experience, they are doing their best.

This is why I was very surprised to see the reactions of the Future movement and the PSP to his speech. Almustaqbal newspaper and future-TV singled out the “demoralized” comment and showcased it in a way that means “did you here what this crazy guy just said?, he was defending the agencies.” Worse, in today’s parliamentary speech, PSP’s Wael Abou Faour attacks Michel Aoun and his sympathy for the Ajhizé, calling him a project for another Lahhoud. For the record. The PSP's anti-Aoun campaign is getting on my nerves.

Today, I was listening to an interview in VOA (Voice of America) with an In-Sync singer. The host asked her if she has anything to say to the hundreds of millions of people around the world who are listening to the show. Do you know what she said? She addressed her speech to the American troops all over the world, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan and told them that she loves them and that she and the whole American people stand behind them.
I got an email a few days ago from an American who said that he doesn’t want to read my blog anymore because I said that the American army in Iraq was incompetent.

Our men and women in arms were more than admirable when they helped facilitate the March 14 day of freedom, so please, quit demonizing them. Give them some respect and stop using them for your cheap political ends.

Muslim Clerics Shun Geagea

Kamal has taken issue with my previous post and decided to tell us why.
He suggests that the Lebanese should quit hiding behind fake national unity rhetoric and accept the notion of a federal Lebanon.
Please let us know what you think of Kamal's Ideas.

NOT A SINGLE MUSLIM CLERIC SHOWED UP

Not a single Muslim cleric of ours showed up (nor sent a representative). That means they implicitly endorsed Geagea's imprisonment (while they meet and condone Jumblatt or Berri or other war criminals turned national leader-mind you Hussein)...Geagea has sure noticed that; i hope he will get the message, and quit the "wehdé wataniyeh" delusive speech.

Many Muslim clerics were invited though. According to one cleric i personally know (a relative of mine actually), these people decided not to attend in order to send a message to "isolationist Christians"... WTF!!??

Isn't Geagea sectarianism "softer" than the one of Hezbollah? Remember: He only wanted to separate Lebanese Christians and Muslims ("Taqseem"- in one way or another, in one politically correct formula or another...) while Hezbollah (or the abject Islamists Denniye-style) wants to force an Iranian (or Saudi, respectively) style Islamic republic on both Christians AND Muslims (read their manifesto). Christian clerics are nonetheless always represented in the Hizballah events. No comment.

And next time you will talk about "wehdé wataniyé", try not to be impressed by "wehdé intikhabiyé". No "wehdé wataniyeh" is possible in this country, at least in its actual form. Sooner or later we will have to go back to our de facto sectarian federalism. Why not turn it into a De Jure one? That's the only way we (all of us, including YOU Mustapha, including YOU Doha, including ME Kamal, not to mention Joe, Maroun, or Elie,...), we will stop thinking about our sect representation in ANY political event, and start trying to build a modern country like the ones we (all of us, including you Mustapha, including you Doha, including me Kamal, not to mention Joe, Maroun, or Elie,...), we strive to obtain a visa for and live happily in, while posting on a blog about how Lebanon -a forcedly unified Lebanon- should be a message...

Passing Time will lead us to a de jure form of sectarian federalism. Until then it is recommended to enjoy political correctness, while trying to get an emigration visa to a (federal -USA, Belgium, Switzerland, Canada...) western country. And most of all, remember to look aside and conspicuously utter: "wehdé watanieh" (or "pfuuu... sick sectarian mentality" as another brilliant pseudo-secular Hussein puts it) when sectarian issues force themselves on you.

The Ideas above reflect the opinion of their contributor (Kamal) and do not necessarily represent The Beirut's Spring point of view.

The Beirut Spring Had already invited readers to publish their own pieces, but the London bombings had slowed things a bit. You are still welcome to contribute.

Future TV In Bsharreh

The complex task of rebranding Samir Geagea.


"My Lebanese countrymen […] We have fought a civil war that may have had its logic at the time. But this logic does not fit nowadays."

This is how Samir Geagea effectively declared, from the airport, that he’s a changed person. Out are the days where “The security of the Christian people is above all other considerations”, and in are those where “we should all look shoulder-to-shoulder for the shiny days ahead… to build the new Lebanon in Muslim-Christian national unity”.

It is easy for everyone to say that the past is behind us, but as Samir Geagea appears to know very well, the transformation from a sectarian to a national leadership is a tricky and complex game.

To effectively achieve the leap, a politician has to convince the other party that he indeed has their interest at heart, while at the same time maintain legitimacy with his core constituency. Two people are playing this game at this moment, Saad Hariri and Samir Geagea, and both have to keep eye on balance. So far, both are doing very well.

Let’s start with Hariri. His actions have shown lately a lot of rapprochement with the Christians, a big part of which he inherited from his father. But he has to also keep his eye on his core Moslem constituency, which might start to grumble if Hariri becomes “too Christian” and forgets his Moslem “mandate”. This is why Hariri is playing a double game: bombard the Moslems with Future T.V. positive coverage of Samir Geagea to change their hostile attitudes, while at the same time appease them by showing them that he is still a “strong Moslem leader” by picking up the occasional fight with president Lahhoud (and Michel Aoun), like the recent one over who should head the governments’ meetings.

The same is happening with Samir Geagea. His actions and talk have shown a lot of willingness to reach out and to think nationally and for the interest of all the Lebanese. Witness how, unlike Aoun, he blamed the national debt not on Rafik Hariri, whom he referred to as “people who were building Lebanon”, but on the Syrians who were “suffocating” him. But at the same time, Geagea still has to maintain his “Strong Christian Leader” image by appeasing some of his hard-core Christianists (like the people who are maintaining his website). This is why he was talking of “a lack of balance” that “needs to be fixed”.


People don’t just forget the past, and words must be buttressed by actions. This is why the Hariri-Geagea Tango is a good model for reconciliation in Lebanon.
The more the merrier.

Ornithology

Too many birds


In his speech to supporters before he leaves for a month of recuperation, one of the things Samir Geagea said is that the previous regime was trying to break one of Lebanon’s “wings” (In reference to Christians). If only Samir knew how many metaphorical wings and birds are roaming around in the new Lebanon.

Geagea himself and Michel Aoun are Phoenixes that rose from the ashes. The Lebanese political scene has lots of Doves and Hawks on most issues, from Syria to Israel to America. We also have chickens that are planting random bombs here and there with eagle-eye precision. We have lots of ostriches that don’t have a clue about what’s going on. We have cocky politicians who pigeonhole their constituencies into narrow sectarian categories. But not all birds are in politics, just look at the various kazdouras (promenades), you’ll sure notice the peacocks riding their cars and looking for bird-brained chicks.

With all those wings flapping around, we can all be confident that one day Lebanon will be able to take-off.

The Media War

The Syrian Official Media has been waging a “Syria is the real victim” campaign against the Lebanese in response to what it perceives as Lebanese “aggression” and “insults.” Why are they doing this?

In a democracy, The Media and public opinion have always had a symbiotic relationship: Public opinion influences the media, but the media also shapes public opinion. Sometimes problems arise when powerful special interest groups dominate the Mass Media and transform it into a subtle brainwashing instrument. Witness Murdorch’s America, Berlusconi’s Italy and lately in Lebanon, the Hariri-Tweini Alliance.

But those problems pale in comparison to what autocratic systems can do with their own media. Syria, with its new trademark shortsightedness, is proving day after day that it is a creative “media engineer”.

When the Americans accused Syria of letting suicide bombers cross to Iraq, Syria invited the world’s press to a “border-tour”, to see for themselves the “American falsehoods”. Also, when everyone was talking about the Syrian control over the Lebanese border, Syria invited the press to “register” the “free flowing of goods across the borders”. Needless to say, both “tours” were staged and clearly meant to insult everybody’s intelligence.

Since we all know what’s really going on, why do the Syrians keep on trying?

One of the reasons is that Syria does that because it wants to mobilize the Syrian and Arab public opinion against the regime’s “enemies”. This unfortunately works sometimes. People who are presumably “intellectuals”, like Azmi Becahra, are falling for the Syrian PR machine and are thinking that Lebanon is the real aggressor.
Thankfully, Aljazeera did not subscribe to the Syrian version of events the way it did when it believed Saddam and ignored Kuwaiti and Iraqi people. But that could change. Arab Public opinion is a target of the Syrian “marketing campaign” that has a simple and appealing story line: The Lebanese are cooperating with the imperialist west and the Zionist enemy against their own Arab Brothers.

The Other reason why Syria is fabricating the news is that the Syrian regime doesn’t know about other ways of doing things. This is why it is suspicious of the free Lebanese who express anti-Syrian opinions. Who doesn’t remember the lame but famous “zoom-out” theory that came out of Bashar’s mouth to cast doubt on the amount of Lebanese who demonstrated against Syrian troops back in early March?

Unfortunately, the “puppeteer” theory is widely spread in the Arab world. This is why Gebran Tueiny, Ali Hmedeh and Nassir Assad (Anti-Syrian Lebanese commentators) can all be easily cast as “Agents”. In fact, the theory is so widespread that I sometimes get comments on this blog that I am paid by the Saudi royal family, or even more flatteringly, by the CIA.

So please allow me take this opportunity: Saad, Condoleezza, if you’re reading this, I have a discount on Anti-Syrian articles, are you interested? This is your last chance! The discount ends today.

Bad Comparison

The Sharm el Sheikh bomb and the Monot one are done by different people for different reasons.

Naharnet did today the most ludicrous lumping of two separate pieces of news in one headline.

It is tempting to find similarities between yesterday’s two bombs: they both target places that could be construed as decadent and filled with tourists and they both occurred almost at the same time. But the bombings have two totally different signatures.
The Sharm El Sheikh bomb clearly has the signature of Al-qaeda sympathizers: Utter disregard for Human life and suicide bombing designed to maximize casualties and destabilize the ruling regime in the Arab world’s most populous country.

In Monot, Beirut, it was different. The explosion happened under a car in an unpopulated parking lot. It was clearly designed to cause maximum panic (and economic repercussions) with minimum casualties. This is consistent with the previous bombs that stroke Christian areas in Beirut and claimed minimum casualties but wreaked a lot of material havoc. MP Michel el Murr had concluded that local agents (who don't want to hurt their families and friends) are behind the bombs.

The Beirut pro-Syria politicians accuse the “Islamists” of being behind the Beirut bombs, but the sharm el sheikh explosion clearly shows that they are way off. Naharnet should have been more responsible and not give credence to their argument.

The Monot Bomb

Clubbing in Monot has always been a blast. But someone just gave that sentence a very literal meaning.


Forget the beaches; forget the food, the mountains or the shops. The real reason why Saudi, Bahraini, Kuwaiti, Omani youngsters come to Lebanon is to party hard in Mono Street, the very place that was hit by a bomb on a Friday night in the beginning of summer.

Monot Street has the appealing combination of a Paris Left bank walkway and a big city clubbing neighborhood. You are more likely to hear people speak in French than in Arabic in this French-named place, and there are no signboards whatsoever written in Arabic. The most common sentence I’ve heard from non-Lebanese Arab friends who go to Monot is this: “I’ve never seen so many pretty girls at the same place like that”. Perhaps this is why Arab tourists dig it, or perhaps it’s because they like to pay $500 for a bottle of Champaign.

Western tourists on the other hand don’t like Monot; one of them once told me that the “Lebanese Try too hard to be European”. She said that she prefers Damascus because it’s more “authentic”.

Speaking of Damascus, who was behind that bomb?

Nobody knows, but it seems conveniently consistent with a certain country’s attempt to stifle our economy by first targeting our trucks and now our tourists. But hey, the Lebanese can always teach their Arab brethrens to Dance their problems away.

Lebanonized

Tabbouleh in the Jungle

West Africa has always had a strong Lebanese contingency; we have been around for the last 120 years. But never have I felt the strong cultural Imperialism trace we left until the day I drove into what I thought was the middle of nowhere in Ghana.

It was a peaceful place away from civilization, with a nice beach and your regular palm trees and fishing boats. I was hanging out with a bunch of friends from The US, Canada, Italy and Ethiopia and we were getting hungry. So we searched around and found a nice little African hut with the word “Restaurant” clumsily written on a wooden board.

We got in and got our “menus”: Regular sheets of paper on which the food names were handwritten. I didn’t know what to feel when I saw the big two food sections: “Local Dishes” and yes “Lebanese Dishes”, was it pride? Maybe. But it was mostly astonishment.

The reason why I’m remembering this incident now is because I read this piece of news. It seems the Lebanese want to move into something bigger than cultural imperialism after all.

A Groovy Kind Of Love

Syria doesn’t want to be “just friends”


Breakups have always been a messy affair; just look at Lee and Sarah.

Lee has been going out with Sarah for 15 years, but he had a secret: He never Liked Sarah, he hated her bossiness and endless demands. This is why he was never satisfied with the relationship and has been bottling resentment since they started going out together.

Sarah, on the other hand has been quite satisfied. She became increasingly dependent on Lee not because she loved him (although she did kind of get used to him), but because having Lee made her feel important. Lee always told her how beautiful she was and put her on a pedestal. Sarah became so comfortable she started taking Lee for granted, and Lee kept on appeasing her because he didn’t like trouble…

One day however, Lee decided that he had enough.

Very nicely, Lee told Sarah that he likes her, but only as a friend. In fact, Lee tells everyone that he likes Sarah, but just as a friend. Sarah didn’t take it very well. At first, she thought that Lee was playing games, until she noticed that he was flirting with other girls, Amy and Frieda. Sarah now realized that she was indeed dumped, and that she was in denial. How unfaithful of Lee! She thought. How could he do this to me?? She wondered. She begins breaking Lee’s CDs. She takes away his car keys, she attempts to burn his house.

And now, she’s telling everyone that in fact, it was SHE that dumped Lee.

Relationship advisors always advise to make a breakup very clear and to snuff away any expectation for resuming the love affair. “Just friends” doesn’t work, they always say. It will make the other person think there’s still hope.

The best medicine? Well, the experts advise that there should be a period of complete disengagement directly after a breakup, and with time, after the emotions cool down, a friendship could be built from scratch.

This is my suggestion for a symbolic breakup. At the beginning, it was a crazy idea, but now it seems it needs to be done.

Ya Fouadi

Will the real Fouad Seniora please stand up?


If watching Fouad Seniora lately makes you feel that something is wrong, you’re not alone. A lot of Hariri fans are surprised at how well he appears to be getting along with the President, the same person who made life hell for his best friend, martyr Hariri.
Not only does Seniora keep his smiles everytime he sees the president, but he’s also making deals with him, speaking of great cooperation with him, and to top it all, he wore a sparkling clear suit for yesterday’s picture despite the fact that the PSP people wore black in “mourning for the Martyr Hariri and others”.
What’s going on? Did Seniora forget his best friend?

The answer to that question tells us a lot about our new prime minister, who in fact, is doing precisely what Rafik Hariri would have done if he were in his shoes.

Fouad Seniora was at one point the most hated person in Lebanon. He was the finance minister in a time where taxes were being raised. To a lot of people, he was a heartless penny gatherer. To them, seeing him smile with Lahhoud makes perfect sense: he’s doing what he does best: Deals. He doesn’t care about people, just about GDP. “We are not homo-economicus, we have feelings” French socialists would shout in his face. But is that a fair assessment of Seniora?

Granted this 62 year old business man has made a fortune out of shrewdness and cunning; The effect of Bell's Palsy on his mouth has made a lot of people assume it's the result of his abuse of expensive cigars. But behind all of that, Seniora is a very sensitive person. Just in case you don’t know, he’s a poet and he loves the arts.
When I saw him speak in AUB’s memorial of Hariri, I couldn’t help but notice when he paused in mid-speech to shed a long sincere tear. He had just mentioned a personal anecdote about him and Hariri, after having described how Hariri has been continuously molested by the “security regime”.

So make no mistake about it, Seniora doesn’t have a single doubt who was behind Hariri’s killing, which brings us to another aspect of his personality: patient pragmatism.

A few days had passed after the murder of Rafik Hariri and president Lahhoud was in Quoraitem to give his condolences. Saad Hariri couldn’t look into Lahhoud’s face. Seniora however spent his time with the president, entertained him and showed him around the palace. Seniora knew that one day Lahhoud will be useful and that he shouldn’t be antagonized. He assessed early on the president’s obstinacy and decided that the best way to deal with him is to charm him into concession; an approach that worked well in the formation of the government.

It remains to be seen whether this approach will translate into more results with President Lahhoud. But the Seniora carrot could always be buttressed by the Saad and Jumblat sticks. This is why President Lahhoud prefers dealing with the mask, not with the actual face.

Tug Of War

Meet the two most important ministers in this government


To say that the Minister of Labor and the Minister of Culture are the two most important ministers in this historic cabinet might sound like a stretch to a lot of you. But Trad Hmedeh and Tarek Mitri are no ordinary ministers, they are two very important “key-figures” in this cabinet.

Tarek Mitri, an intellectual with an impressive CV, is important because of his independence. President Lahhoud, Hezbollah and Amal have together 7 out of 24 ministers, which is one short of the “subversive third” that can vote against government bills. Theoretically speaking, both parties could cajole or threaten Mr Mitri into joining their side.

Trad Hmedeh, a University teacher and a prolific writer, is the Hezbollah Link to the American Government. A US spokesperson told Annahar this morning that while the US Government is going to boycott minister Fneish from Hezbollah, it doesn’t mind talking to other ministers who are not officially in Hezbollah but who have links to them. In other words, Mr. Hmedeh could prove very useful for both Hezbollah and for the US government.

Keep your eyes on these two, for they could be both the battlefields and the peace table at the same time

PSP Gimmicks

Question: You are Walid Jumblat. You’ve been accusing the President of being a murderer for the last three months and you now find yourself in the same cabinet with him. What do you do?
It seems Mr. Jumblat has found an answer: Symbolism

A Taste of Fame

My "Moslems Against Terrorism" Banner made it to the BBC website! (Thanks Abed)


Hope more Moslem bloggers will use it. Please, if you happen to know anyone, could you ask them to post it too? This is where they can get it from.

Samir's In The Mix

What kind of effect will Geagea’s release have on the Lebanese political scene?


Most of the Lebanese commentators have been busy analyzing the meaning of Geagea’s entry to the Lebanese political scene. This is an important issue. After all, Geagea is a Christian heavyweight whose imprisonment was seen by many as a symbol of singling out the Christians as the “bad guys” in the Lebanese war.

His expected Mandella-esque release this week will be a major transformative event in the Lebanese political scene in general, but more specifically, in the Maronite Christian scene. A quick reading in the Beirut dailies this morning indicate that there are three major theories about the effect the born-again Geagea will have: The “Christians will unite and become powerful again theory”, the “Christians will jump at each other throats in a power struggle” theory and finally the “Christians will ally with various partners in Lebanon” theory.

The first theory is a bit idealistic. It can be easily dismissed as wishful thinking. The idea is that the Christian “people” will look around them and see that the other players in Lebanon all have strong and unified leaderships. This is why Samir Geagea will have a historical meeting with Aoun where the two strong Christian camps will “merge” to have their own unified leadership.

The second theory is exaggerated, It’s also a sort of wishful thinking from the pro-Syrian camp. The theory argues that as soon as Geagea is released, he is going to clash with Aoun, because the latter has shown that he is unwilling to share his power and hasn’t kept secret his plans for the presidency.
In fact, the clash will occur, but in a different way. It will be a clash for the hearts-and-minds of Christians, which will be fought through democratic ways, using marketing, plans and Alliances.

Which brings us to the last theory, championed by Annahar’s Sarkis Naoum in yesterday’s column.
The theory goes like this: The Christians will be divided into different camps in terms of their outlook to the future. Some of them will “strategically ally” with various powerful Moslem forces (Like Geagea with Hariri), while keeping a strong level of independence. Some of them will try to establish semi leaderships in the Christian arena (like Michel Aoun), some of them will be independent “moderates” like Butros Harb and now recently Pierre Jmayyel (who seems to have long term presidency objectives).

What does The Beirut Spring think about all of this?

I find what’s going on in the “Moslem scene” in terms of polar leaderships disheartening. I look at what’s going on in the “Christian scene” with a mix of hope and foreboding. Hope because some Christians are the leaders in establishing cross-sectarian/fully democratic parties like Nassib Lahhoud’s Movement for Democratic Change, and foreboding because I sense that the “Christian base” is feeling that it is entitled to play the game of having a strong and powerful leader just like “the others”.
But Instead of the Christians thinking that they should consolidate around one powerful leader like the Moslems are doing, It is the Moslems that should learn from the Christians and establish a “flatter” non-polar system.
The same system that the Christians perceive as a weakness from their side, is in fact a strength for Lebanon

Samir Geagea Out Soon

After eleven years in prison, Samir Geagea (Gaegae, Ja3ja3) will be out soon. It is time the civil war got wrapped up.

A Matter Of Facial Hair

Syria seems to be really convinced that Lebanon has wronged her.


I was watching a T.V. program yesterday about the border crisis between Lebanon and Syria. The guests were 4 people, well chosen to fulfill our stereotypes: The “Syria always sucks” Lebanese, The “It’s always Lebanon’s fault and Syria’s always an angel” Lebanese, The “Syria should leave the Lebanese alone” American, and finally, the Syrian official spokesperson.

Watching the Syrian guy talk is just amazing. I couldn’t help but remember that incidence in the Muslim League back in March 2003, when the Iraqi delegate, Ibrahim al Douri, snapped at his Kuwaiti counterpart for not being "loyal": “yil3an Shawarbak!”

Back to Syria: The spokesperson was talking about how “disappointed” the Syrians are from the Lebanese, and how the Lebanese proved to be “unfaithful”.
It must be a Baathist thing. A sense of entitlement that makes you imagine that you own your smaller neighbor. And what’s dazzling is that it didn’t look as if the man was faking. He sounded sincere, just like Mr. Al Douri back then.

Syria appears to be totally oblivious of what’s going on around it, and Bashar’s biggest problem seems to be that Fouad Seniora doesn’t have any facial hair to curse.

Just Like a Baby [2]

Yet another display of Syrian infantile politics


In a slap to Terje Roed Larsen’s efforts to ease the border tensions between Lebanon and its "sister" nation, Syria Upped its trade confrontation with Lebanon by seizing 2 Lebanese fishing boats for “trespassing into Syrian sovereign waters”.

The Lebanese should seriously retaliate, how about withdrawing from the Arab league? Any other ideas?

The Bridge Vs. The Populist

A glimpse at the battle taking shape to secure the Lebanese Presidency


It seems president Lahhoud will stay around until his term expires after all. But that doesn’t mean that he’s not a lame duck. In fact, the two people who have the strongest chance of replacing him are already strategizing their way up to the top.
M.P. General Michel Aoun and Veteran M.P. Butros Harb are both ambitious Maronite Christian heavyweights, who are gearing up to snatch the seat that will be available in 2007.

For all of you Nassib Lahhoud fans (myself included), I’m sorry to announce that after losing an election, his chances of becoming the president are close to nil, at least for the short term. As for you Hariri Die-hards, forget it, Ghattas Khoury WILL NEVER BE president. Pierre Jmayyel is too young, Samir Franjieh is new into official Lebanese politics, Neila Mou3awwad will not be Lebanon’s first female president and Samir Geagea is not going to be the next Mandella.

So, Back to Aoun and Harb: how are they positioning themselves as prospective presidents? A close look at Aoun’s statements yesterday and another at Harb’s T.V. Appearance (LBC) today offer us a lot of clues.

Butros Harb has always marketed himself as a strong Christian leader, but one who can work with the other Lebanese parties as well. He is convinced that the Lebanese president needs to be a unifying figure. He never loses his temper and he has shown remarkable composure in the face of magnificent adversity. Even when the Syrians were here, his criticism of them was marked by a graceful combination of firmness and willingness to negotiate.
But Butros Harb also understands that being a president in a post-Syrian era means that he has to be a “real” Christian; in other words, not one that succumbs to the whims of the Moslem partners, whom the Christian base perceives as monopolizing the post-Taef decision-making process. This is why Mr. Harb always takes care of showcasing his Christianity by visiting the Patriarch and announcing “Christian” positions (like asking for an election law based on smaller districts and demanding that the army be positioned in the south)

If Butros Harb is catering to the center, then Michel Aoun is catering to both the far right and far left. His vow yesterday to take to the street in face of corruption is nothing but a consolidation of the image he has been building for the last 15 years: The zero-tolerance populist leader who understands the people’s suffering. This appeals to the Christian right who voted for him because he’s a “strong Christian leader who can stand up to the other Lebanese poles”. But it also appeals to the left in general, because he comes across as a man of the people, a man who understands the “regular guy like me”. He is also wooing the young lefties by stressing his secular credentials. This is why I expect to see him push for election rights for the over 18s.

Whose strategy will work better?

It all depends on the mood of the country two years from now. Michel Aoun seems to be closer to the Christian psyche today because of their perception that the Moslem leaders are consolidating their powers. “Look, they have even formed a government without him” they seem to be saying. Not that he minds; being in the opposition is the easiest way for Aoun’s popularity to soar.

But never underestimate Butros Harb, this man knows how to charm people and he seems to be made-to-be-president. He also has the backing of the major international players and that of Hariri. But only time can tell who will be our next Fakhamat Al Ra’ees.

A Lebanese Thing

So what exactly is going on in Lebanon?


Yesterday, the idea of forming a Technocrat government was struck down only hours after it was floated. This time, it was the “parliamentary majority”, once known as the Opposition, who (rightly) rejected the proposal. This blog agrees: nobody in their right mind can expect a bunch of experts with no political backbone to make the serious decisions this country needs.

Today, a new effort to form a government is under way, but the question everyone is asking is this: Why is it that a country that just came out from a free and fair election which resulted in a clear majority, is finding so much difficulty in forming a government with a strong mandate?

There might be a lot of answers, like blaming specific parties, whether external (Syria, Israel, U.S, France) or internal (Hezbollah, Lahhoud, Jumblat or Aoun). But at the heart of our inability to govern lies a culture war that is an important case study for all those interested in the future of democracy in the Middle east.

This war has always existed in Lebanon; it is taking place right now between two schools of thoughts with opposing governing philosophies: Winner-takes-all and Consociationalism.

The winner-takes-all system, championed by the Likes of Walid Jumblat and preferred by the younger generation, calls for Lebanon to have a democratic governance system, similar to the one used by the rest of the democratic countries: The parties who win the elections should be free to form a ruling coalition whose components represent the majority in parliament. The other parties would be the opposition that monitors the government’s performance. The system is supposed to work because the government would be responsible and accountable for the decisions it makes, and the opposition would have the incentive to scrutinize the government’s performance to show the voters why they could do a better job. In the next elections, the voters would decide who did a better job and vote accordingly.

The Consociationalist system, championed by Patriarch Sfeir, President Lahhoud, Najib Mikati and the late Rafic Hariri, argues that Lebanon cannot be ruled by the victor and vanquished mentality: All decisions should be made by consensus of all parties, whether major or minor. It is a system strongly averse to confrontation and is mostly favored by the Christians. In a recent meeting of the Maronite bishops, the clergymen announced that until Lebanon gets non-confessional parties (like the ones in the west), the winner-takes-all mentality couldn’t apply. In other words: Never.
(But don't a lot of democracies have religious parties? look at Israel, it still has a winner takes all system)

Both these systems have advantages and disadvantages, and the back and forth movement we’re seeing from the appointed prime minister is nothing but a very complicated effort to find a working compromise between the two.

This blog supports the winner-take-all system, but it’s realistic about the difficulties in achieving it. For example, if Hezbollah is out of the government, and the ruling coalition decides to disarm it, can it do so?

No body knows yet how to deal with this issue; this perhaps explains the silence of the international players, who occasionally voice their disbelief at this tiny and hugely complicated country called Lebanon.

Spot the Difference

There is a lot the world can learn from the astonishing British competence.


An Article in the New York Times this morning had this to say about the London bombing investigation:

British investigators have mounted a worldwide manhunt for the suspected bomb maker in the London attacks, a man seen on a videotape with four suspected bombers last Thursday morning at the Luton train station, an American official said Wednesday.
The four suspected bombers are seen leaving for a London-bound train, but the fifth man stays behind.

In the Luton train station parking lot, the British police found a car Wednesday that they said had been rented by the bombers who attacked London.

Police guards formed Wednesday on Stratford Street in Leeds around a house being searched for clues. Three bomb suspects were from Leeds.

In other words, the British police has been sorting through thousands of hours of camera footage from all across the country, gigabytes of data from flight and trains schedules, car rental databases, DNA banks, bank accounts and witness accounts.
Just one week after that, they found out who masterminded the attacks and they coordinated with American and European intelligence to catch him.

This Huge operation was executed in clockwork precision in less than an hour after the attacks happened, without causing panic and without affecting the livelihood of the rest of Londoners who went about their businesses normally just a few hours later (using the underground and double decker busses).

Not only that, there is more: at the same time, a set of political measures was taking place to reduce the tensions among the various British communities, to improve pan-European anti-terrorism coordination for the short term, and to find long-term measures in education and sociology to prevent such attacks in the future.

I’m so impressed, now I know why they call it “Great Brittain”

George Bush, watch and learn.

(I don’t want to even think of how investigations happen in Lebanon, where you can kill a prime minister without having a clue who did it)

Techno-can’ts

In another show of governing impotence, our Appointed Prime Minister has decided to form a “Technocrat Government". This is another way of saying: A bunch of powerless experts.

This is why The Beirut Spring's big heart has decided to give the new government a hand.
Our own technocrats have worked painstakingly to design a "Formula for Success", in a language the new ministers could easily understand.

Starve The Beast

The Beirut Spring has two practical ideas for the Lebanese politicians who are afraid of being the next target.


Idea #1: Get a Secret Santa.
Yesterday, Mr. Jumblat said that Mr. Murr was targeted because he knew too much. Jumblat’s idea resonated well in today’s dailies and throughout the Blogosphere. The killers, his theory goes, were afraid that Murr had something to say that could help find Hariri’s killers.
So the question is: If you do know something about who killed Hariri, how do you fend off an assassination attempt? Here's my plan:
First step: prepare a signed document with everything that you have to say, clearly written with all the relevant details.
Next, leave that document sealed with someone you trust; someone who preferably lives abroad and who has access to the Lebanese and Arab media.
Next, make a public announcement in the newspapers or on T.V. that you have done this and that you have told your secret trustee (stress that he lives abroad) to make the documents public if anything happens to you.
If Jumblat’s theory is true, you should be safe.

Idea #2: Buy the killers off
Most of the Lebanese suspect that the Syrians are behind the attacks on Lebanese soil. In other words, this is a war between an intelligence-and-terror based governing system, and one that has a free-ish society with a market-based capitalist and democratic system.
So why don’t we use our core strength -our capacity to generate wealth- against our starving neighbor’s assassins? After all, most of the targets are very rich and more than willing to spend to stay alive.
Just announce (as individuals or as a government) that you are willing to pay ten million dollar to everyone who defects from an assassination operation, if he hands in the plans and the explosive material. That, coupled with a witness protection system and a credible promise of amnesty can starve off the killers from executioners.

Parallel to these short-term solutions, reforming the Lebanese intelligence system should be very high on the next government’s agenda. This time, I don’t think Lahhoud will refuse.

These are my ideas. If you have other ones, please feel free to share.

Defenseless

Another Assassination attempt in Beirut, but this time, the target is a symbol of the pro-Syrian establishment. Why would anyone want to kill Mr. Elias el Murr?


A bomb has targeted a motorcade of a well-known politician. The target is slightly injured, but two of his companions are confirmed dead. Usually, the rest of the story is predictable: The opposition would hold an emergency meeting where they would denounce the remnants of the Syrian-Lebanese security apparatus. They would then reach the conclusion that its head, the Pro Syrian president Emile Lahhoud, should be removed.

But the fact that the target, the outgoing Defense Minister, is the son-in-law and closest ally of the president makes this more than just a variation of the above line of events.
This comes in the middle of painstaking negotiations to form the first Syria-free government in 30 years. The appointed opposition Prime Minister was believed to be aiming for a Lahhoud-free government, with the possible exception of no one else but the very Mr. Murr, who has just been targeted.

So who did it?

The answer depends on where you stand in the conspiracy theory scale. Some would say that the Syrians targeted their own man, without informing president Lahhoud, to prove that the assassins are not just aiming at the anti-Syrians; a gambit perhaps to prove that Syria is not behind such attacks. This would also be meant to strengthen the argument of the Likes of Hezbollah, who have been arguing all along that the Israelis (or Americans) are the perpetrators, and would also clean the image of president Lahhoud, who can’t possibly attack his own son-in-law.

Mr. Wael Abou Faour, a P.S.P spokesman, who was incidently on T.V. when the explosion took place, quickly addressed this. He said to Walid Abboud on L.B.C: “the fact that this unfortunate attempt targeted a pro-Syrian this time does not mean that we take back our accusations regarding the previous attempts"

Which brings us to the other extreme of the conspiracy spectrum: The culprit is no other than Jumblat himself, who did it for revenge reasons.
This remark by a fellow Lebanese blogger is indicative:

I only know one thing: the "head of the snake" is much closer to Mukhtara than it is to Baabda or Bteghrine.

It is still early to know how this attempt will affect the Lebanese, but we can get a good idea by watching the reactions of the different parties, like the American Embasador, Hariri, Aoun and Lahhoud. Also indicative would be the kind of funeral Murr’s aids will have and the speech he would make.

But never underestimate the symbolism behind the fact that the Lebanese Defense Minister couldn't defend himself.

**update**
The Syrian Arab News Agency(SANA)had this to say about the bombing: (you can find the Arabic version on Aljazeera)

These terrorist activities are targeting the Lebanese from all the political spectrum, which confirms that the perpetrators are directly related to the enemies of Lebanon and the enemies of stability in the region

I admit, I personally believe that the Syrians did it.
In a perverted plan that is becoming increasingly clear, they seem to be thinking: Make life hell for all the Lebanese (through random bombings and trade blockades). Eventually, the argument goes, the Lebanese will realize that they were much better off in terms of safety and economic activity when the Syrians were here, so we will invite Syria back.
The world should have one answer: regime change in Syria.

The Truth?

If Aljazeera is true and the perpetrators are found, then Samir Kassir's will be the first-ever Lebanese high-profile murder mystery to be solved in history.


The way the government deals with this will tell us a lot about the post-Syrian Lebanon:

-Will the case be transparent to the degree that no matter who the killer is, it would be known to the public?

-What are the consequences of this on the Hariri investigation?

whatever the answer, this could be really big.

I know I’m wishfully thinking here, but could it be that the Lebanese government is putting counter-pressure on Syria to release Lebanese trucks from the border?

More Banners

Here are some more banners and buttons; I added new sizes and designs. The source is in the box under each banner.

I Am also preparing some PDF versions of the banners that can be used as posters.
PDF are small files that you can download and print (color or B/W) to whichever size/quality you want (if you have the means, you can even cover a building with the poster without losing quality);

Techies: does anyone know where i can have pdf files hosted online (preferably for free), with link access to it?

Full Bannner:

(150 x 308)

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(120 x 246)

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Medium Bilingual:

(150 x 107)

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(130 x 93)

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(120 x 86)

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Arabic Only:

(150 x 56)

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(130 x 49)

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(110 x 41)

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Arabic Only (minimal):

(98 x 29)

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(80 x 24)

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(60 x 18)

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English Only:

(150 x 61)

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(130 x 53)

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(110 x 45)

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