A Lebanese Fudge (updated)

How do you make an electoral law in a country where powerful groups have strong, opposing viewpoints? Just give every group a little and hope everyone will be happy.


Nobody in Lebanon has a more difficult Job than that of Fouad Boutros. The elderly ex-MP seemed like an odd candidate to be in charge of such an energy-consuming task: That of presiding over the committee for devising a new electoral law for the eternally squabbling Lebanese.

After months of hard work, hundreds of hours of meetings and consultation sessions, Mr. Boutros will finally present his first draft to the government tomorrow (June 1), and the media has already received leaks.

The proposed project is a Frankenstein; if some people have strong views about the small district, and others have strong views about the large one, why not have both? Mr. Boutros seemed to be asking.
The proposed law will keep the total number of MPs to 128. 77 of which will be elected using a winner-takes-all system in small districts (kazaas), and 51 using a proportional system on larger districts (Mouhafazas). Also, in a welcome move, the whole of Lebanon would be voting in the same day.

Will this please everyone? Signs are not promising: George Adwan of the LF has already dismissed the draft, while Ibrahim Kanaan from the FPM has cautiously welcomed it. It remains to be seen how the final form of the law will be. But what is beyond doubt that it will be similar to what Mr. Boutrous presented: A characterless fudge.

Update: According to Annahar, the draft law reduces the suffrage age to 18, allows Lebanese nationals abroad to vote, and forms an independent body to run the elections, in lieu of the much loathed Ministry of Interior. Also, the draft law includes a quota of 30% for women to stand for the elections.

A little bit for everyone indeed. Just don't get too excited, this draft will only become law after a lot of dilution...

Freaky The Economist

How do you define "Prescient?"

I noticed that The Economist Magazine (it calls itself a newspaper) has a weird knack for predicting Major natural disasters. In December 2004, just a few days before the Asian Tsunami, this is what its cover looked like:


And as if that weren't enough, today, I read in this week’s edition an article about Indonesia where they wrote: "the sprawling Indonesian archipelago remains vulnerable to all sorts of natural disasters, from volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis to outbreaks of deadly diseases"

Imagine my surprise when I later check the internet and read: “3000 Die in Indonesian Quake!”

Conclusion: If The Economist predicts a disaster in your area, just leave..

It's Legal, But Keep It Quiet

Lebanese Homosexuals have done the right thing by coming out, but the way the system handled it is worrying.



I remember once reading in GQ that the prostitution industry in Lebanon is one of the most regulated ones in the world. Apparently, Escort ladies and pleasure providers are required by law to be regularly tested for STDs and to use condoms. Their brothels should be licensed and there’s a minimum age for sex workers (so says GQ)

I remember my first reaction when I read that article was: “Who decides this kind of stuff?” I don’t recall anyone debating in parliament the merits of regulating prostitution. The weird thing is that I support such measures (it’s better to regulate than moralize), but I also know that a public debate in parliament would kill it at birth.

What does this have to do with Helem and the gay conference that took place for the first time in the Arab world in Beirut?

Consider this from the BBC:

The organization (HELEM) is considered legal because the government did not respond negatively to their request for registration within three months of applying. "Basically, they did not know what do with us so they didn't respond, therefore we're legal," Mr Azzi said.

THAT is the problem! Our government is liberal enough to accept homosexuals (unlike the commercial sex issue which is simply one of Lebanon’s secret touristic cash cows), but the way the Lebanese system handles tricky social issues can be summarized as: Do it, we will regulate it, but let’s all try not to talk about it.

But if a public debate doesn’t take place and the Lebanese society as a whole is not convinced, what can guarantee the permanence of such regulations?

Our Biggest Fans

Kuwaitis are getting the Lebanese “scourge”


To every Lebanese with even a remote interest in politics, Kuwaiti Newspapers from the serious Al Rai Al Aaam to the frivolous Al Seyassah are household names. The papers’ interest in nitty-gritty Lebanese affairs raised many eyebrows, and their occasional scoops have made headlines in Beirut and caused noises in Parliament and on the streets. Just yesterday, on a popular Lebanese talk show (kalam Ennas), a Kuwaiti caller made an impassionate attack on Syria and on its Lebanese allies, causing the Hezbollah guest on the show visible irritation.

It is fair to wonder then: Why is Kuwait, a remote oil-rich gulf state among many others, so particularly interested in our politics?

Some people would argue that it’s because of the similarity in our geo-strategic positions: Small liberal states constantly bullied by bigger and stronger neighbors are likely to sympathize with each other. Others would argue that it’s because of Hariri’s connections in Kuwait. President Emile Lahhoud recently accused PM Hariri of sending ready-made news to Kuwaiti newspapers, only to re-publish them on his own Almustaqbal media.

Fair enough, but I think that there is one more, largely overlooked factor that greatly affects Kuwait’s behavior: Competition with other Gulf countries.
In a globalized world, Rich oil states, which at one point looked very similar, are discovering the need to differentiate themselves and find their own unique “niches”. Qatar created Aljazeera; the UAE wore a business-friendly face, Saudi Arabia emphasized its scale. Kuwait, after some soul searching, found itself in Parliamentary Democracy.

Kuwaiti Politicians never miss an opportunity to say how happy they are with their democracy and freedom. They tout their free and fair elections and (depending on who you ask) are proud of the fact that women will be allowed to vote and stand in parliamentary and local elections.

Since Lebanon is an Arab democracy with older and more mature institutions, a lot of Kuwaiti became Lebanonphiles, accepting the messiness that can come from such a role model as a necessary collateral.

But has this gone too far? A writer in Al-Arabiya thinks so. This is the best part of his article entitled "The Lebanonization of Kuwait:"

، فجلبوا الشباب والبنات من المراهقين ومجاميع تحت الـ18 سنة، وأختاروا اللون البرتقالي رمزاً لهم استوحوه من تيار العوني اللبناني، فيما اختار معارضوهم اللون الأزرق للتعبير عن أنفسهم كتيار المستقبل اللبناني أيضاً، فيما كان هناك نية لخروج الشيعة باللون الأخضر الذي يعتمده أخوانهم في لبنان أيضاً!

Any observer of recent developments in Kuwait can see how similar their issues are to ours: from election districting (small versus large) to Al-fassad (corruption), to orange-clad demonstrators and politicians. If you’re still not convinced, just check this post by a popular Kuwait blogger. "Eat more mangoes," he said, "they’re messy, delicious, and ORANGE!!!"

Sugar Daddy Economy

Lebanon’s Voodoo economics explained


Any outside person who tries to make sense of consumption patterns in Lebanon is confused by what she sees. Lebanon is notorious for low wages (Wanted: Architect with minimum 5 years experience. $800), yet it is impossible to deduce that from observing the cars on the streets, the people in clubs, in restaurants and in fancy shops mushrooming here and there.

My brother, who recently graduated from LAU and tried working in Lebanon, came up with a theory. He concluded that in Lebanon, we have two kinds of employees:

The first kind is made of the people who are stuck in the rat race. They struggle to make ends meet and to save at the end of each month. They sometimes have two jobs. They are always angry at the government and are constantly complaining from low pay. Their ultimate goal is to find a rich spouse, a job in the Gulf or an immigration ticket to Canada.

The second kind is the more interesting one for this post. It’s made of the sort of people who net $900 a month but drive $70,000 cars. They work for pleasure, prestige, or for the pursuit of a sense of accomplishment and growth, but not to pay the bills. They are mostly women who graduated from top universities but whose fathers wouldn’t let them travel. They are a special breed of YUPPIES: their pay-cheques are their disposable incomes, but the essentials (accommodation, utilities, transportation, cell-phone bills, health-insurance) are simply “taken care of.”

This stereotyping is of course just a caricature, but there is nothing that can symbolize the Lebanese economy better than that second category. As economist Marwan Eskandar explained in Annahar today, the Lebanese economy is a different kind of beast.

In response to an IMF official who predicted for the last 10 years that the Lebanese economy should soon collapse, Mr. Eskandar explained that this would be the logical conclusion for any economist who doesn’t account for that most important of Lebanese factors, Lebanon’s sugar daddy: the mighty Diaspora.

Mr. Eskandar proceeds with figures: 35% of able and willing Lebanese workers work outside of Lebanon. Their remittances to their families exceed the sum of all wages paid in Lebanon. This accounts for the uninterrupted expenditure on consumption and for the surplus in the balance of payments.

Another significant statistic he sites is this one: Bank deposits are almost 60 Billion Dollars (much higher than Lebanon’s GDP,) 83% of which belongs to Lebanese people. This statistic is not necessarily a healthy thing, he concedes, but it’s very important because it injects the economy with an estimated 2.5 Billion Dollars in interests yearly. Add that to the estimated 5 Billion dollars the Lebanese abroad send every year as remittances, and you have 7.5 Billion dollars primarily aimed for local consumption.

Mr. Eskandar warns that focusing the government’s economic efforts on academic studies on the different sectors would be bypassing one of the major pillars of our economy: Lebanese-owned Multinational companies who chose to have their headquarters in Larnaca and Dubai instead of Beirut because of complex politics and excessive red-tape and taxation.

He sites 10 Lebanese family groups with a collective turnover of 12 Billion dollars per year. They employ 100,000 Lebanese who send remittances that cover the salaries and pensions of 500,000 employees inside Lebanon. Those groups work in Industry, like the Frems and Ghandours, Hi-tech, like the Hariris and the Miquatis, Trade, like the Daguers and the Dahers, Air and Sea Transportation services like the Ghandours and the Saadehs, Software like the Eddehs, and Education like the Bustanis, Saads and Abushakras.

Mr. Eskandar asks the politicians to leave their squabbling aside and ask those Lebanese Entrepreneurs about what should be done for them to bring their businesses to Lebanon.
That simple step, he says, will help invite many others to come and invest here.

New Dialogue Issue

One crucial issue has just been added to the agenda of the final round of the National Dialogue. It’s a matter that will seriously polarize the Lebanese populace (yet again). Our leaders have taken it upon themselves to solve this problem before the world cup fever ignites a new civil war.

Pause Voyage!

Leaving on a jet plane..


It will probably take a couple of days for me to start writing again. I know I know, you're relieved , but i'll be back to bugging you pretty soon..

Bombing Google

Sorry Guys, I haven’t been able to look at the news from Lebanon yet, I’ll do it right now and comment a bit later. I was busy bombing Google.

For those of you who still don’t know, we’re involved in an International Campaign to make a Google bomb for freeing Alaa, the Egyptian blogger who was seized by the Egyptian government. The idea is this: the more people who link the word “Egypt” with http://freealaa.blogspot.com , the more likely people who google the word "Egypt", will be directed to our blog. The idea is to embarrass the Egyptian Government.

More background here

Free Alaa Campaign

Here are some banners I designed to be used in the "Release Alaa" campaign.

Alaa is a fellow blogger with a strong record in activism for free speech (also, alongside his wife Manal, winner of a special award by Reporters Without Borders). He was arrested by the Egyptian authorities for the sole “crime” of peacefully demonstrating.

All bloggers are encouraged to support this campaign. Today it's Alaa, tomorrow it could be you.


<a href="http://www.manalaa.net/alaa_detained_english"><img src="http://static.flickr.com/56/142869951_0ce7433c56_o.gif"></a>


<a href="http://www.manalaa.net/alaa_detained_english"><img src="http://static.flickr.com/50/142869992_a1a3a2835f_o.gif"></a>


<a href="http://www.manalaa.net/alaa_detained_english"><img src="http://static.flickr.com/54/142870057_f0c9f61602_o.gif"></a>

Bluff Or Blunder?

Mr. Hariri “disagrees” with Mr. Seniora’s economic plan. Excuse me?

I still can’t decide what Mr. Hariri meant when he said that he disagrees with Mr. Seniora over public sector employment reforms. He actually announced that he is against the proposed contract-based employment plan. When was the last time you heard a party's head publicly disowning his own Prime Minister’s plan?

Could he be trying to bluff to pull the rag from under Mr. Nassrallah who had announced Hezbollah’s intention to protest loudly? Perhaps trying to say “you’re not the only one who can have it both ways (being in the government and protesting at the same time), we can play that game too.”

But Mr. Hariri’s announcement is ill-advised for three reasons:

First, It sends the wrong signal to supporters by showing that he’s not standing behind Mr. Seniora, just at the time where the embattled Prime Minister needs all the backing he could get.

Second, it sends the wrong signal to opponents by appearing weak and divided, and by showing that he yields to hard-line opposition tactics.

Third, it sends the wrong signal to potential donors, who will think that the Future Movement is not serious about economic reforms and that Mr. Seniora’s plans are “old-guard” business, not a party’s long term policy.

Mr. Hariri is probably cozying too much to Mr. Jumblatt, a socialist.
On economic matters, he should listen more to Mr. Seniora. But he can still learn something else from Mr. Jumblatt: Political boldness.

No Comment

I found this comment on Alarabiya's interview with Lina Khoury, director of Haki Nisswen (Lebanon's answer to Eve Ensler's Vagina Monologues)


Translation:
It's enough that She's Lebanese.
Since the day I learned she was Lebanese, I wasn't surprised; all we get from this people is trouble

Bye Bye Jack...

A man whose back we're all glad to see...


Let's hope the UK's new Foreign Secretary isn't as irritating

The Man Who Won't Be President

The best candidate for the Presidency is also the one with the least chance at it


Poor Chibli. He works hard, he has great ideas, a great CV, a website with a “Presidential program” and an actual political strategy. (For instance, this morning, he tried to boost his Arabist credentials in the Daily Star and Almustaqbal). He has international exposure, he is campaigning for “free and fair Presidential elections”, he's trying real hard and he has it all.

Well almost..

Anyone who heard Samir Geagea’s speech on April 25th knows that we need a “front class,” “political,” and “powerful” President. I don't know about you, but it didn't sound like he had Chibli Mallat in mind.

Mr. Mallat can not even be proposed as a neutral candidate; he is too close to the Future Movement, and the Sunnis shouldn’t be seen to control the whole country. (Read my previous post on why the system is messed up)

Yet another too-good-to-be-true situation in Lebanon. I support and admire you Chibli, but I think you’re wasting your time.

Will It Happen?

A war with Iran seems to be a matter of when, not if. Could it really happen? What would the consequences be?



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License.

Quornet Chehwan, The Resurrection

The forming of an all-Christian gathering is a symptom of Lebanon’s woes


First of all, the Arz meeting is a Christian gathering, unless you’re the kind of person that believes this diplo-talk: (By Antoine Zahra)

This is not a sectarian movement at all. We are committed to national unity especially that this unity gave us our new independence

I don’t have any problems with an all-Christian gathering. The problem is with the system that encourages such movements. “Whoever the Patriarch Chooses to be President, we support” says Nabih Berri repeatedly. “Why don’t you Christians first agree on one name and then we’ll talk,” is another commonly heard argument (usually made by pro-Syrians who trust that Aoun won’t give in)

To understand why such classification is wrong, one only has to listen to the two speeches made on May Day by Ghazi al Aridi on one hand, and speaker Nabih Berri, on the other.

The simplistic narrative we always hear is that the Christians, Druze, and Sunnis are on one side, and the Shiaas on the other. The problem is, on the issues that really matter, like economic reform, the positions are totally mixed up. Both Mr. Aridi and Mr. Berri seem to be opposed to Hariri’s economic reform program, although one is an “ally” and one is a “foe”.

We look at politics using the wrong lenses in Lebanon. If we become issue centric, then we’ll start hearing of “Pro-Market, liberal” gatherings, versus “Big-government gatherings.” At that point, religion will simply cease to matter.

Mr. Ghazi Youssouf, a Shiaa Economist and Mr. Jihad Azour, a Maronite Financier, have worked very hard for a plan. But the system insists on calling them "Sunnis” simply because they belong to Hariri’s bloc.

Will we ever listen?