That Feel-Good Factor

GROUND ZERO , BEIRUT, LEBANON
Ignore the pessimists and deniers . These days, even cautious optimism is becoming a thing of the past. People have never been more optimistic about the historical changes taking place in Lebanon.



I landed in Beirut a few days ago after an absence of 9 months.
After passing by Hariri's shrine, I was busy soaking up news: I read the dailies, talked with family and friends, watched the lengthy televised debate in parliament, attended an AUB alumni Memorial service for the Late prime minister, and came up with this conclusion: the people are starting to see the full half of the glass.

The politicians made the move from let's-kick-Syria's-Ass to let's-see-how-to-build-our-future-together. A very visible power shift was on display in the parliament today. Opposition MPs were trying with difficulty to hide their triumphalism and the loyalists are starting to sound like toothless tigers.

The people are jubilant: The Syrians have officially left, the security apparatus is collapsing like a cards house, Two major opposition politicians are joining their embittered constituencies after an absence of more than 10 years (one was exiled and the other imprisoned) and the elections will be taking place starting May 29th.
My grandmother said it best: God has answered my prayer that I don't die before I see the back of the Syrians.

Of course, critics will dismiss this and maintain that the changes are cosmetic and that the corrupt politicians are still the same. But this is no magic, this is politics and the pace of change is already very fast and hard to manage.

The changes taking place are very significant and consequential, and if you still don't believe me, come to Beirut...

Don Saad

The New Hariri Strongman

Meet Hassan Sabaa, the new interior minister whose name frightens Jamil el Sayyed and the other security officers.



He was at one time the boss of Jamil el sayyed (the notorious security officer whose head is demanded by the opposition) and he has resigned in protest to his appointment as the head of the general security department.

He is now back with a vengeance, and guess what was the first thing he did when he was appointed interior minister? He visited Hariri's grave.

The security heads have already started panicking; Naharnet reports that they are simultaneously asking for one-month leaves.

No wonder why this guy is the new darling of the Hariri family.

Assad's Unexpected Opportunity

Najib Mikati opens a new door for the young Syrian president to rebrand himself to the Lebanese.



When a Lebanese hears "Bashar al Assad", he is likely to start thinking of the likes of Rustom Ghazaleh, Nabih Berri and Omar Karami. People whose names, to say the least, send shivers down the opposition's spine.

When the young Syrian president took over from his father, he branded himself as a "young, western educated reformer".
He internalized that image further into the Syrian people's imagination by taking steps that are both symbolic and useful: he brought the internet and mobile telecommunications to Syria, he filled his cabinets with younger technocrats and he got married to an equally "western educated" presentable woman with whom he could easily appear on the covers of Hello or Paris Match.

Yet in Lebanon (which has higher standards of modernity), there was no "campaign” whatsoever: the Lebanese still associate the Syrian regime with old, haggard, retro people who want to prevent the region from progressing.
This is precisely where Najib Mikati, The new caretaker Lebanese prime minister can be useful to his pal. He's youngish, sharp looking, rich, calm, and is a mogul in the telecommunications industry, plus he has shown that he could seduce most parties in Lebanese politics and more crucially, the international community.

In the Lebanese commentariat, there are two schools of thoughts concerning the young Bashar Al Assad:

One that thinks that he is even worse than his father and that all the changes he is doing in Syria are cosmetic (strong champions of this theory are this Lebanese blogger and this Syrian one).

The others, like me (and most European governments), think that Mr. Assad is well intentioned but very weak, and hence needs all the help the world can provide him with. To these people, Najib Mikati is a welcome and unexpected ally.

Bassel Fuleihan, R.I.P.

Bassel Fuleihan, A great Lebanese and a brilliant economist, died on April 18th, aged 42.



For updates on Funeral Arrangements, this blog should be helpful.

Najib Mikati

Forget the bad press he's getting, the new Lebanese Prime Minister is a good man.



"The Opposition has shown extreme flexibility by choosing Assad's friend", wrote Annahar's Rosana Bou monsef today. The New York times called him "Pro Syrian". Three prominent northern opposition members abandoned the opposition's consensus and didn't vote for him, but is Mr. Najib Mikati really such a bad person?

When Najib Mikati first appeared in the Tripoli political scene back in 2000, everyone knew that this billionaire businessman-turned-politician has friends in high places. His business interests with the Assad family were no secret. This gave him a sort of halo of invincibility that only added Soprano-style mystery to his soft-spoken style.

Yet to classify him as pro Syrian would be unfair. We shouldn't forget that even Mr. Hariri was at one point aligned with the Syrians, because, let's face it, they were the gate keepers.

A lot of Tripolitanians saw in Mr. Mikati a much better alternative than the vulgar Omar Karami, who was so upset at Mr. Mikati's "Trespassing" into his "territory" that he actually named him: "wazir el zift", translated "Minister of Asphalt" (lost in translation: it has a much nicer derogatory bang in Arabic).

Recently, he has been doing and saying all the right things: He was the first to suggest that the airport be named after the Late Hariri , and after being chosen as Prime minister, he stressed that the elections should be held on time and that for credibility, he won't be a candidate. He even said that he will sack the security officials and that he is bent on letting the international investigation into Hariri's murder take its full course.
Perhaps most significantly, he made the symbolic move of visiting Hariri's grave right after being named prime minister.

Even in terms of style, he seems to have that quality we all liked in the late Hariri: He is never angry in public and never uses demagogy. He's always calm, serene and he chooses his words carefully. A real manager.

Give this man a chance; he deserves it.

The Child has Grown Up

Question: When do people pray?
Answer: When they are faced with the unknown.


Today, President Lahhoud is conducting consultations with members of parliaments to name a new prime minister.

Speaker of the house Nabih Berri was taking part in his capacity as head of a parliamentary bloc. He nominated Mr. Abdel Rahim Mourad for the premiership, but before doing it, he uttered those very symbolic words: "Bissmillah al Rahman al Raheem"

For those of you who are not very familiar with Moslem traditions, this is a small prayer Moslems say before embarking on a venture that is uncertain, difficult or unknown. Especially when it is said in the theatrical way Mr. Berri used.

Why is that very symbolic?

Because for the first time since the Lebanese war started 30 years ago, the members of parliaments actually don't know who will become prime minister when they're consulting with the president.
In the past, there was the "password", which is basically the Syrians’ instruction to the parliamentarians on whom to choose. Today, there's only the parliamentarians' conscience and the trust of the people who voted for them.

In other words, the constitutional process, for the first time, is taking place the way it's meant to: with real, non-skewed, power struggles.

With the Syrians gone, the Lebanese have lost something very precious:
Someone to blame when things go wrong.
But it is time the Lebanese child started walking on his own.

Syria Says Bye Bye Lahhoud?

What does it mean when Sleimen Franjyeh, one of Syria's strongest Maronite allies, declares that he and Hezbollah were both "deceived" by president lahhoud?

Why did Jumblat immediately re-instate the opposition's will to work with Hezbollah after Karami's efforts collapsed?

It seems that the pro-Syrian Ain-el-tineh camp is being shattered, that Syria has decided to abandon president Lahhoud (who was siding with the Patriarch on the electoral law), and that the Syrians want Franjyieh to be the next Most-Important-Allie.

This leaves us with the wild card that all parties are fighting to have on their side: Hezbollah

Those Laggard Hariri Women

When Rafic el Hariri announced back in 2000 that Ms. Ghinwa jalloul is joining his Beirut electoral list, everyone speculated that we were looking at the woman who would become the first female Lebanese minister.
That didn't happen. We know that the honor went instead to -of all people- Omar Karami for chosing Wafa' Hamzah and Leila Solh As ministers.

Are we seeing a redo today?
Two weeks ago, The Economist estimated that Bahia al Hariri could become the first ever Arab prime minister. Not too fast: now that Karami has resigned, it seems Lahhoud's favorite choice for the Premiership is Leila Solh.

I guess now i know why Haririst women are called: "Women of the Future". Quite literal, i must say..

The Lebanese Elections Issues [Part 2]

In the US, it is axiomatic that "All politics are local". In Lebanon, local debates only matter in elections once the regional issues are set. In the second entry in the series about the Lebanese electoral issues, The Beirut Spring will start looking more into the bread and butter of politics. How are the traditional left and right manifested in Lebanon?
We start with the social aspect: who are the social liberals and conservatives?

Social progressivism has always been relative to its environment: In Saudi Arabia, the progressives are demanding that women be able to vote, In the US, they want homosexuals to get married, in the Netherlands...well, forget the Netherlands, progressives are out of fashion there anyway.
In Lebanon, if I were to pinpoint the debate that most defines social progressivism, it would be "Civil Law", or "Rule of the Clergy"

What would you call a country where you don't have the basic freedoms of deciding your marriage, divorce, child custody and inheritance? In Lebanon we still call it a democracy.
To those of you who are not familiar with our Lebanese ways, the Lebanese solve their marital and inheritance issues according to their religion, creating a parallel legal system that has God as a judge.

Back in 1998, president Elias el Hrawi thought that it was absurd that If a Lebanese wanted to marry into a different sect, he/she still has to have a civil marriage in neighboring Cyprus. Why don't they get married here if we accept the Cyprus marriage anyway?
A secularist president par excellence, he reasoned like Lea Sawaya did:

Lebanon [...] would benefit tremendously from the application of an optional civil marriage law.
Such an arrangement would encourage mixed marriages and would also seek to institutionalize equality between genders on many levels, including that of marital rights, inheritance, and child custody as compared to most religious marriages that favor fathers.
Civil marriage would legalize adoption, as well, forbidden under Islamic law. It could also pave the way for a possible abolishment of sectarianism in a country that has been severely suffering from this problem ever since it existed.

So he braved his way into suggesting an "optional civil personal status law". He might as well have declared a war: Panicked, clerics from all religions, sensing power slipping from their hands, lobbied together with politicians (including Hariri) and, in an impressive show of force, killed the project before it saw the light.

To Foreign observers, Patriarch Sfeir might seem like a sensible, freedom-loving, democracy-preaching individual. That is true, as long as you don't mess with the "Secrecy" of marriage and the prohibition of divorce. Jumblat is supposedly the leader of a "Progressive" party, but the Druze he represents are notorious for not allowing inter-faith marriages. Even the Harirists, with all the hoopla and media frenzy of unity and common future these days, have the civil law issues very low in their priorities (if it were there at all).

So who are the champions of secularism in Lebanon?
Unfortunately, with some notable exceptions, they are the same people who are on the wrong side of the W.O.W spectrum: the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, the Communist party, the Secular Democratic Party and Najah wakim's People's Party.



Free and fair elections should be a golden opportunity for the progressive forces to advance their cause, Lebanon after all has a majority of under-30 voters, but that will require some patience: the Lebanese democracy needs to mature a bit.

Next, The Economy..

The Lebanese Elections Issues

Forget Abortion, Gun Control, Gay marriage and the separation of church and state. To better understand the Lebanese Elections, it is worth looking at the real issues that make the Lebanese tick.

The coming election is by no means held in normal circumstances, and the candidates will be conveniently divided between opposition and loyalists; But as Jumblat put it yesterday, what next? How are the elected Mps going to cooperate among themselves? What are the Left and Right in the Lebanese politics?

In a series of posts, The Beirut Spring will try to underline what the Lebanese would consider their "Electoral Issues", hoping that this will provide an insight not just to the Lebanese mind, but to the Arab mind in General.

ISSUE #1: The "Warmness to the Outside World" (W.O.W) factor.

This might is the most difficult for outside observers to understand, but in a way, it is a uniquely Arab/Moslem thing and it is in the heart of most American/European problems nowadays (integrating immigrants, terrorism, democracy in the Arab world).
It basically boils down to a simple question: To what extend do we really see ourselves as part of the international community? The answer has both a social and a political dimension.

These are the narratives that form the two ends of the W.O.W spectrum:

Extreme right: (conspiracy theory, insecurity and paranoia)
America and Israel are trying to control the Arab world. it is part of a general assault on Islam/Arab world that has been taking place for ages. They have nurtured oppressive rulers in the region so that they could take them out whenever it suits their interests. Only military resistance works and the peace process is a big lie. Also, "the west" is trying to impose its social values on us, dominating us with their decadent culture so that we get weaker internally.
We don't want our sons and daughters to go out "clubbing", this is a foreign concept. We are just different, we have a different mentality and I would never let my daughter get married to an "Ajnabi" (a widely used xenophobic term that describes all non Arabs)

Extreme Left (Naive Internationalism, Idealism, Ivory-tower Intellectualism)
We are part of the international community and the highest legal authority is the UN. America has changed since September 11th and the Americans really want us to have free elections. The Israelis and Palestinians are talking their way into what seems to be a real peace deal, which will lead the way into peace in the region. Militarism never solves problems. We cherish diversity and the world is generally a good place where we could strive as a nation that is only judged by how much we produce.

Below are Two graphs tentatively placing the Lebanese and some Arabs along the W.O.W spectrum.

Jumblat Strikes Again

Walid Jumblat may be starting to distance himself from some parts of the opposition.


"The Opposition's demands have been met", this is what Walid Jumblat announced after visiting P.M designate Omar Karami in his Ramlet el Baida residence, effectively ending the "contract" he had with the opposition.

Despite the Grand-sounding statements of unity made by now-defensive opposition members, Jumblat is clearly beginning to differentiate his stances. To the chagrin of the Quornet Shahwan gathering, he began by downplaying the need for disarming Hizbullah in the short run, he then ignored the opposition's boycotting of Karami and he is now supporting an electoral law based on districts instead of Qazas.

Quornet Shahwan is already crying foul: Gebran Tueni of Annahar was warning yesterday against a district-based electoral law and Edmond Saab (Annahar's executive editor in chief) has derided Jumblat today for "leaving the bus before attaining its final destination", but did Jumblat really backstab the opposition?

While some pundits speak of Jumblat's latest moves as necessary tactics to co-opt the loyalists and deprive them of excuses, it is not entirely unimaginable that Jumblat would just re-examine his alliances based on new givens.

From Jumblat's point of view, the opposition would be a united front as long as the Syrians are in Lebanon and as long as Hariri’s murderers remain unreachable. Both these demands have now been irreversibly met: The Syrians are leaving for good and UN resolution 1595 (demanding a far-reaching investigation into Hariri's murder) is now in place.
Why should Jumblat be bound by a "deal" made between president Lahhoud and Patriarch Sfeir regarding the electoral law? Jumblat never liked Lahhoud anyway.

Jumblat's position now is starting to look more like that of the future movement: chummy with the opposition but with a centrist and independent streak. Fares Khasshan of Hariri-owned Almustaqbal Newspaper defends Jumblat no too convincingly, saying his latest moves are because he wanted to fill the void. If that is the case, why didn't he talk with his partners in the opposition about it?

Nobody knows what Walid Jumblat is up to, but his recent cozying up to the Bush administration and its intellectual establishment could offer us a clue. The weekly standard (the NeoCons' main weekly) had said that he knows which way the wind is blowing.

I wonder what he would be thinking, watching that other minority-leader elected president of a newly-democratized Arab neighbor...

Gebran Tueni, Arab Ruler?

Why Gebran Tueni, The boss of Annahar, risks looking more like the Arab leaders he criticizes often.


When Gebran Tueni took after his father the position of General Manager of Annahar back in January 2000, everyone thought that the days of Lebanon's most prestigious newspaper are about to be over. How could someone so young and so inexperienced assume such a great responsibility? They all asked.

Nevertheless, the young Gebran, namesake of the 1933 founder, has shown that he is the ideal man for the job. He proved to be an apt manager by overseeing the modernization, expansion and diversification of Annahar Group. More significantly, he proved to be one of the most audacious journalists in Lebanon.

In the 22nd of March 2000, Gebran Shocked the Lebanese/Syrian establishment and the world with his groundbreaking page one Op-Ed piece: Open Letter to Bashar al Assad. Back then, the ruthless Hafez al Assad was alive, and his son Bashar was responsible for the "Lebanese File". People were even afraid of speaking privately about the Syrian role in Lebanon. Still, Gebran wrote: "Many Lebanese are not happy about the Syrian military presence in Lebanon and believe that Syrian behavior in Lebanon contradicts the principles of sovereignty and independence," I remember back then when I read that piece, that I was hiding the newspaper in fear that informers would spot it with me. Mr tueni had effectively given an electric shock to the freedom of speech in Lebanon, triggering more people to brave their way into the new and fascinating domain of criticizing Syria (albeit mildly at that time).

Fast forward, five years later, Independence 05.
The Syrians are wrapping up and leaving, the UN envoy Terje Roed Larsen was so impressed with the Syrian withdrawal that he emphatically declared that the Syrian factor is going to be removed from Lebanese politics and that the Lebanese would be responsible for their own future.
Still, A day later, Gebran Tueni, as fiery as ever, accuses prime minister Karami and the Ain el tineh gathering of "taking orders" from a now-toothless Syria.
It seems to me sometimes that Gebran Tueni is in denial that other parties in Lebanon exist. Parties that are Lebanese yet genuinely pro-Syrian, not least because they want to keep their positions. Tueini seems to carry in his heart a rosy image of a united Lebanese people that "the others" are trying relentlessly to destroy. If the others didn't exist, the Lebanese wouldn’t have fought each other and would have lived in a fairy tale.

This is not unlike Arab rulers who blame all their countries' misfortunes on Israel and the US. The highly acclaimed "Arab World Development Report 2004" is now released with a section criticizing the US and Israel. Something tells me that this is the section all the Arab rulers are going to talk about.

Gebran Tueni has to realize that although the Syrians were a big impediment to Lebanese unity, there still is a Lebanese component to the problem that we, as a people, need to address together.

It is often said that people who lead revolutions should not lead the peace.
Gebran Tueni is now making the move into politics by standing for elections. The Beirut Spring, a sincere admirer of Mr. Tueni, wishes him the best of luck; however, it still thinks that this is the right time for him to sober up and to become a real statesman.

Not So Honorable Withdrawal

The Downfall Of The Daily Star

What’s wrong with Lebanon’s best selling English newspaper? Why is its readership in steady decline since February 14? (see Graph above.) Perhaps John Kerry can give us a clue.



Mr Jamil Mrouwwe, The Daily Star’s Editor-In-Chief, has never failed to impress me with his T.V. Appearances. He always speaks with passion and conviction; He is opinionated, refreshingly progressive, admiringly focused and seems to be determined to make a difference.
Why these qualities failed to trickle down to the Newspaper he founded still strikes me as a great mystery.

In its effort to have a “balanced” reporting, The Daily Star has failed to rise up to the challenges of our historic and transformative times. It often reads like a history textbook: Accurate, authoritative, diverse, yet alas: Passionless.

With bland editorial titles like “Lebanon Needs an Electoral law that reflects the people’s interest” and “Lebanon’s politicians must set aside differences in favor of the common good”, no wonder why readers are moving to more exciting stuff from different sources like Annahar.

One only has to read a Jubran Tweiny, a Rajeh Khoury or a Ali Hmedeh to know what I’m talking about.These opinionated veterans from Annahar Speak from their hearts without compromising their journalistic principles.
Ali Hmedeh and Jebran tweiny exude conviction and passion when they speak in historic language of the eventual downfall of the “last of the Stalins.”
My dad loves Rajeh al Khoury and follows him religiously because of the scathing (sometimes personal) criticisms of Omar Karami he relishes in.

When I read editorials, I like to think that actual people like me have written them. People with aspirations, hopes, vulnerabilities and the occasional rant;
The Daily Star needs more provocative people like Ann Coulter and Maureen Dowd and less know-it-alls, experts, and big-picture Analysts like Rami G. Khoury.

What has John kerry to do with all of this?
Well, like the Daily Star, John Kerry (with whom I agreed on most topics) lacked radiant conviction. Unlike George Bush, he tried to be “balanced” and tried hopelessly to please every body. As we all know by now, this doesn’t work.

The Daily Star has to seriously reconsider its style and image if it wants to regain the readership it’s losing quickly.

Of Death and Opportunities

The death of the Pope and of Mp Ali al Khalil present a set of opportunities and threats for the government.

When Mp. Albert Mkheiber died a few years ago of old age, a special election was held in the Christian metn region to fill the vacancy he left.
That election was all eye-candy for the pro-Syrian loyalists. The Christians’ bickering among each other for a “lousy” parliamentary seat provided A-class gloating material for the then-complacent loyalists.
At the end, Ghassan Mkheiber emerged as a consensus candidate.

Why am I bringing this up?

It’s simply a reminder that the Lebanese constitution requires a special election to be held sooner than later, in the event of the death of an MP member.

Yesterday, loyalist Mp. Ali Al-khalil died in an unfortunate car accident, and it seems that the government will be facing its first post-Hariri-Assassination election sooner than it had planned.

This will be a test for all parties involved, and it will give us a good preview of the coming spring elections.

Mr Al-khalil is in a staunchly pro-Syrian Shiite constituency (the South), but it would be worth noting how the Americans, Syrians, Loyalists and opposition are going to behave.

Will the opposition present and promote a candidate? Will it be free to do so? Will it unite behind one figure? Will the government allow foreign observers? Will the Americans insist they be present? Will the loyalists present a candidate under the Ain-el-tineh banner? (Which will be the official launching of that gathering as an umbrella party), will the government blame “unusual circumstances” for canceling the elections and just appointing a successor? (where the family of the old MP will say that they support such a decision).

All these are questions waiting to be answered.

Meanwhile, President Lahhoud, Speaker Berri, and prime minister Karami all flew to the Vatican to display their grief. Never mind that they were too busy to send a decent envoy to the latest Arab Summit, all they know is that all three of them should be in the Vatican. Of course, needless to say, this is a stalling tactic par-excellence. We just need to wait and see what the oppositions’ nerves, and heads, are made of.

Sfeir for Pope!

The Beirut Spring thinks that the best person to be the next pope is Cardinal Mar Nassrallah Butrous Sfeir, the Patriarch of Antioch and the entire east.



With the Pope’s health deteriorating and Catholics all over the world wearing their hearts on their sleeves, it seems very inappropriate for someone, especially a Moslem, to be suggesting a successor.

Still, the Lebanese-based Patriarch seems to be the right person at the right time, to fill the vacuum that will be left by the Pontiff who was known for his zeal for reconciliation.

To be honest, I don’t have a clue about how someone becomes pope. All I know is from what I read from the book Angel and Demons by Dan Brown (a great book by the way), but still, Cardinal Sfeir seems to be the man for the Job.

He has the skills, experience, wisdom, and exposure to be pope. But most importantly, he has a vast knowledge of the Moslem world, where he managed to maintain a faithful and productive Christian contingency in an increasingly hostile region. The Lebanese Christians not only are an essential fabric of the society, they are also a bridge between the Arab world and the “west” that is in deer need today.

In the age of “Clash of Civilizations”, I can’t think of anyone who can occupy the Vatican better than an Arabic-speaking Pope.

The Economist: What Next In Lebanon And Syria?

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Lebanon and Syria

Who will blink first?
Mar 31st 2005 | BEIRUT
From The Economist print edition


Syria's regime and its Lebanese proxies are rattled—but they won't give up yet

WHAT a bind Lebanon's security services are in. This week's UN report by an Irish policeman, Peter Fitzgerald, accused them of planting, moving and discarding evidence that was crucial to the investigation into who planted the huge bomb that killed Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, in February. Worse, they are losing their Syrian masters, and no longer know to whom they should report. “Where are our policemen?” asked a former interior minister, Elias al-Mur, fearing that the 15-year-old system was collapsing in chaos.

Heads of Lebanon's security chiefs, accused by Mr Fitzgerald of “gross negligence”, are already rolling. The military-intelligence chief, General Raymond Azar, was the first to take a month's leave; the head of internal security, General Ali al-Haj, who began his spy career as Mr Hariri's driver, may well follow. In their wake, hundreds of Syria's remaining 10,000 troops in the country are rushing home. And Lebanon's pro-Syrian president, Emile Lahoud, has given in to opposition demands for a more extensive international inquiry into Mr Hariri's murder.

Syria's president, Bashar Assad, may be a lot less clever than his father, mock Lebanon's chattering classes. But unlike Saddam Hussein, he can read the lessons of history. Unusually, the UN's 16-page report virtually accused Mr Assad of the murder, citing reports that he had threatened Mr Hariri with “physical harm” last summer, should he refuse to obey Syrian orders to extend the mandate of their Lebanese client, Mr Lahoud. The UN report added that, in his last meeting with Mr Hariri, Mr Assad had bluntly told him that Mr Lahoud “should be viewed as his personal representative in Lebanon”.

Lest Mr Assad misunderstood the message in the report, the UN's secretary-general, Kofi Annan, met a chastened Syrian president last week in Algiers, to ram it home. “Given that the investigators lacked conclusive evidence,” says a Lebanese government official, “it's hard to see how it could have been more damning.”

But the Syrians have yet to give up their satellite: it is dangerous for a dictator to look weak. In the past fortnight, three big bombs have rocked Christian quarters of Greater Beirut, which even Lebanese security officers now blame on Syrian hands. While many Syrian workers have abandoned their Beirut flats, Syria's intelligence chief in Lebanon, Rostom Ghazali, hangs on in his headquarters in Anjar, a village in the Bekaa valley, in the country's south-east. And despite pressure from within the country that he should resign, Syria's most devoted Lebanese servant, the intelligence chief, Jamil al-Sayyid, refuses to bow out. “He still thinks he owns the country,” says a frustrated presidential adviser.

Even if Syria's old mukhabarat (intelligence service) slinks away, most Lebanese expect new ones back in a different guise. Syria's allies, including Hizbullah, Lebanon's Shia party-cum-militia, which still has some 20,000-plus men under arms, will still work as Syria's (and also Iran's) eyes and ears. In addition, the many Lebanese who are loyal to Syria because they owe their jobs to it, may be less ready to ditch their backer.

The heavily pro-Syrian parliament, in which only 35 or so of 128 MPs are in outright opposition, is flinching from the prospect of a general election, due in May. So one proposal is to lower the voting age from 21 to 19, to enfranchise more Shias, who tend to be more pro-Syrian and who have been breeding faster than their other compatriots. But a lot of pro-Syrian MPs would like simply to postpone the poll by filibustering until April 15th: thereafter, they say, it will be too late to hold an election in the current parliamentary term.

Omar Karami, the nominated prime minister who is proving unable to form a coalition government, has again promised to step down, but, to waste more time, he says he will make a formal announcement only after meeting political allies at the end of the week. Then comes the jockeying for a successor. “Elections now would be suicidal for the pro-Syrians,” says a presidential adviser. “The opposition would sweep 70%.” But should the government hold out for another six months, the pro-Syrians' chances might improve. The longer the delay, the greater the likelihood that the fragile alliance of Sunnis, Druze and Maronite Christians would crumble.

If Lebanon's pro-Syrian politicians are refusing to buckle without a fight, so too are their ruling friends in Damascus. Many Syrians, affronted by what they see as Lebanon's anti-Syrian invective and apparent ingratitude for the 15,000 Syrian troops who have died trying to rescue their squabbling neighbour from civil war, have rallied to the government's cause. Besides, Syria's opposition is much feebler than Lebanon's. Pro-American exiles have no local constituency, intellectuals in Damascus have little nerve, and—to the delight of many in the Syrian establishment—Syria's Sunni jihadis, who have long been hostile to the secular Assad dynasty, have been killing themselves in Iraq.

In addition, Mr Assad has been strengthening his own hand at the expense of some of his father's old friends. The armed forces' former chief of staff, Hikmet Shihabi, was sent packing to Los Angeles; the longstanding vice-president, Abdul Halim Khaddam, has lost his portfolio for overseeing Lebanon. A third member of this political-cum-business trio, Mr Hariri, whose Sunni leadership stretched far into Syria, is now conveniently dead.

In its place, Mr Assad has surrounded himself with family friends from his minority Alawite sect, including his brother-in-law, Asaf Shawkat, who heads military intelligence; his brother, Maher Assad, the unofficial head of the presidential guard; and Bahjat Suleiman, who runs internal intelligence, a professor who was among the first to boost Mr Assad's reputation when his father's old guard considered him weak. Of his father's advisers, only Ghazi Kenan, Syria's ruthless viceroy in Lebanon for two decades, has been brought back from the lesser job of overseeing Syria's Kurds, to take over the interior minister and muzzle the opposition.

But perhaps Mr Assad's best—and most unlikely—hope for survival, at any rate for a bit longer, is that the American administration will lessen its pressure. Still bogged down badly in Iraq, George Bush may be wary of encouraging regime change across the border, in Damascus, until and unless there is a clear plan for an alternative. So far, there is no sign of one.