The HJ factor

Allow me to introduce a new, accurate way to measure the level of political activity in the North: the HJ index.



So what exactly is the HJ index?

The HJ figure is defined as: The aggregate sale, in Lebanese Liras, of Halewet el Jebn (Tripoli sweets) in the area of focus.

A recent study by the Lebanese Institute for Political Nutrition (LIPN) has concluded that there is a direct correlation between the consumption of Halewet el Jebn and political activity. “We can’t understand why but it seems to be consistently true in all our samples”, confessed the amazed Elias Abu Razzouk, vice president of LIPN for research and marketing.

The relationship seems to hold true: As you can see from the graph above, there is indeed an unexplicable relationship between key political events and the sales of Halewet el Jebn.

The HJ can also be used to measure the geographic distribution of political activity. “The hilwanjis (sweet sellers) in Tripoli”, our economic expert explains, “are evenly distributed geographically”. “So in a way,” he continues, “high sales in certain areas mean that the voters there are numerous and haven’t made up their minds yet.”

He warns however that one has to be careful when working with the HJ figure. “Wrong data can lead to wrong policies” he insisted. This is why the Brand Preference Deflator (BPD) was invented. “It made sure that Hallab and Dweihy get the same treatment”.

Also, the figure has a downside, “or shall I say, an UP side”, he mused.
“As u can see from the graph above, there was a plateau after Hariri’s visit”, “because HJ has a limit that we shall call ß”, “it is the summation of the maximum production capacity of all the hilwanjis (sweet sellers) in the focus area”, “that figure is a constant, assuming that it is not worthwhile opening new outlets just for a few days”.



So, finally!, The Beirut Spring Has an answer to The Economist’s Big Mac Index

(P.S: while the HJ can indeed accurately describe political activity in the north, the abovementioned characters and institutes are purely fictional and are just for satire purposes)