The Opposition's Meeting in Koreitem:

Sitting in front of a large smiling portrait of the late Hariri, MP Ghattas khoury, a Haririst Christian, read the conclusions of the oppositions’ 3-hour-long meeting in Koreitem.

He began by thanking the Lebanese people, which showed on March 14th its strong appetite for change, for wanting to know the truth, and its aspiration to live in freedome and justice.

He then proceeded by making these points:

-The opposition is united and the Hariri group is an integral part of that opposition
-The opposition’s objective is to conduct the elections in time, in order for the people to have their true representation in parliament.
-The opposition has noticed that the authorities are engaged in a delaying tactic to pass the election’s constitutional deadlines; in hope that the current pro-Syrian house of representatives extends its mandate.
-The opposition asks the authority to assume its historic responsibilities and not shut the door on the only remaining way of defusing the crisis (the elections)
-The opposition insists that the security heads resign
-The opposition warns the perpetrators of the recent bombings that sooner or later, they will be uncovered and they will be held responsible for the material damages and accountable to justice.

He finishes by wishing MP Bassel Flaihan good health and by thanking the late Hariri for making Lebanon unite under the principles of Freedom, Sovereignty and independence.

The Lebanese Saddam Statue Fell

If one is to look for the Lebanese Symbolic equivalent of the Statue of Saddam Hussein, one should look no further than the Syrian head control post in Anjar.

With the news today of that outpost being evacuated, the Lebanese can finally breathe: our own Saddam statue has fallen.

A symbol of oppression, fear, Humiliation and heavy handedness, Anjar has always sparked fear in the most sober of the Lebanese. It is there where Lebanese politicians were given orders, it is there where Lebanese were being bullied (rumors have spread that Rustom Ghazeleh has literally twisted Hariri’s arm and broke it in Anjar.
Hariri had said that he’d rather have his arm broken than sign an extension for Lahhoud), it is there where numerous people were tortured…

One day, the Lebanese will start working hand in hand to build a better future. When they feel a lack of motivation, all they have to do is to remember the specter of Anjar.

The Lebanese Spirit, A Dream Or A Nightmare ?

Raja, From The Lebanese Bloggers, had an interesting post about the difference between what he calls "the American Psyche" and the "Lebanese Psyche".

Raja's findings are mainly empirical and are based on a keen sense of observation. He used to live in Lebanon; he now studies and lives in the US. He realized that a typical American sees himself largely in terms of what he does, whereas a typical Lebanese sees himself as an extension of a previously established order, whether social, religious, or familial.

He concludes in a mixture of hope and helplessness:

"Some major behavioral changes need to take place if we are ever to overcome some of the animosity that currently exists between us. Politicians can always change the rules of the game, but in my opinion the problem exists within the people at large; and can only be remedied by them."

Raja's comments mirror the typical conversations twenty-something educated and secularized Lebanese have. They look with despair at the societal construct of their motherland, while envying the efficient kinetics of other countries, especially the US.

Are Raja's conclusions correct? Does the Lebanese society really have to transform itself to be more harmonious and productive? Are the ingredients for what he calls "The American Psyche" missing from Lebanon? Is it quintessentially Lebanese to be tribal? Is it, as Raja puts it "embedded in our Psyche?"

I know exactly what Raja is talking about, after all, I know that it’s easier for me to remain single till the age of 40 than to tell my parents that I’ll get married to a girl who is not Muslim, Sunnite and from Tripoli.

But still, The Beirut Spring, in this piece, is going to argue the exact opposite of Raja’s conclusion, [while maintaining the strong bonds of friendship between the two blogs]

In many ways, the Lebanese and the American spirit are made of the same “raw material”. The difference is simply where we are in the “development process”.

To better understand where the American spirit comes from, it is Essential to read two books: the classic Democracy in America, by Alexis De Toquevile, and On Paradise Drive, by David Brooks. To summarize, the prescient De Toqueville (a Frenchman) observed long ago that America is Unique because it was the only country in the world that was founded on ideas and principles, not on race or established orders. Immigrants Came from all over the world, escaping prosecution and looking for a better life, warred among themselves, then agreed to build a common future that was based on equal rights for all. David Brooks also attributes the American optimism, self- reliance, can-do attitude and entrepreneurship to that particular history.

An article by Fouad Ajami in the Wall Street Journal (Thanks Tony), had this to say about Lebanon:

Lebanon had been, in the past, a land of relative freedom--a freedom born of the multiplicity of its religious communities, of the anarchic nature of its people and their exposure to commerce and the sea. [...] A country that had once been a refuge for minorities and dissidents and a break from the autocracies of the other Arab states.

Scholarly blogs like Across the Bay like to call this: “the virtue of consociationalism”, which in English means more or less this: people from different ethnic and religious groups come to realize that they have to live together, so they create a secular system based on fairness that will guarantee a prosperous common future for all. The process might be lengthy, bloody and complicated, but sooner or later, all the parties will realize that it’s the only way to go forward.

The Lebanese still define themselves by where they were born instead of by what they do, but eventually, this will fade away. It is helpful to remember that at one time, black Americans had their own schools and were treated differently. But that’s the beauty of a dynamic system that, although unstable and sometimes dangerous, always corrects itself for the better. (Our Arab neighbors like to remind us constantly that we are unstable)

To me, the person that most embodies the real Lebanese spirit was Rafik al Hariri (R.I.P). He came from a relatively unknown poor family, but by his sheer hard work, enthusiasm, open mindedness, optimism and belief in Lebanon, he helped create a better future for us all.

We followed him because we knew deep down inside that he was one of us, a true Lebanese.

Hama Rules

This is something i had read that today takes a new relevance:

When Syria's Baath regime feels its back up against the wall, it always resorts to "Hama Rules." Hama Rules is a term I coined after the Syrian Army leveled - and I mean leveled - a portion of its own city, Hama, to put down a rebellion by Sunni Muslim fundamentalists there in 1982. Some 10,000 to 20,000 Syrians were buried in the ruble. Monday's murder of Mr. Hariri, a self-made billionaire who devoted his money and energy to rebuilding Lebanon after its civil war, had all the hallmarks of Hama Rules - beginning with 650 pounds of dynamite to incinerate an armor-plated motorcade.

Message from the Syrian regime to Washington, Paris and Lebanon's opposition: "You want to play here, you'd better be ready to play by Hama Rules - and Hama Rules are no rules at all. You want to squeeze us with Iraq on one side and the Lebanese opposition on the other, you'd better be able to put more than U.N. resolutions on the table. You'd better be ready to go all the way - because we will. But you Americans are exhausted by Iraq, and you Lebanese don't have the guts to stand up to us, and you French make a mean croissant but you've got no Hama Rules in your arsenal. So remember, we blow up prime ministers here. We shoot journalists. We fire on the Red Cross. We leveled one of our own cities. You want to play by Hama Rules, let's see what you've got. Otherwise, hasta la vista, baby."

Thomas Friedman, February 17th 2005, New york Times

President Lahhoud, a surprise?

According to Future T.V, President Lahhoud has just declared for the second time in two days that he is willing to cooperate fully with the UN to uncover the truth about Hariri’s killing.
In an apparent snub to outgoing ministers Hammoud, Addoum, Mrad and Franjyieh who made defiant statements earlier, the president said that he wants to see the perpetrators severely punished.

It remains to be seen whether such a move by President Lahhoud is one of three things:

- A tactical maneuver to further stall the coming elections by presenting an ambivalent authority and a chaotic on-the-ground situation.

- A last minute Syrian effort to sacrifice second-level loyalists by presenting scapegoats in the context of a deal made with the international community

- An honest change of heart by a president who suddenly woke up to the reality of events.

The Oppostion Should grab some "Market Share"

Many of the opposition sympathizers, especially the younger ones, like to talk in black and white when it comes to the situation in Lebanon.

It's not rocket science -they would say-, You have on one side, the good guys, the "true Lebanese", who want Syria out, sovereignty restored and real elections soon. (as a parenthesis, why would a country like India -with 1,200,000,000 person- have its whole election conducted in one day, and tiny Lebanon require several phases for its elections?)

On the other hand, you have the "Bad guys", who are not interested whatsoever in Lebanon's well being. Those "stooges" have sold themselves to the devil, and are willing to do whatever the Syrians tell them to. The best thing to do is to ship them to Syria where they really belong.

Unfortunately, things are never that clear in Lebanon, and the opposition, while the majority (and in my opinion, the ones with the moral high-ground) is not alone on the political scene. Some people out there love their country, but still don't buy into the opposition's ideas and suspect their motives. They even don't think that the Syrians Killed Hariri.

To understand how the Legitimate Pro Syrians think, I suggest you read this BBC page. I'm sure lots of you have friends who are like that. I keep on getting emails about people who are having a hard time "converting" their friends (I admit, it's especialy very common in the recently-transformed traditionally-Arabist Sunni community, where recent alsafir statistics put their opinions roughly on a 50/50 basis regarding the contentious points (who killed Hariri, the roles of America, France, Syria).

But now, the situation has changed, and the grounds are ripe more than ever for the opposition to have even more dominance. The Firzgerald report presents a great opportunity for them to "convert" what they would call 'misguided compatriots.'

While there would always remain some hard-core Conspiracy theorists, the people close to the center are now in a revisionist mood and are asking questions. They just can't stay where they are; they have to either become more extremist (and believe that the whole world is conspiring against them, -Ireland was also part of the game?-), or to join the opposition.

This is why I advise all those people who are having problems converting their loved ones, to cease this opportunity. It is pointless to talk about the outrageous comments of the last Sahhafs standing (Franjyieh, Hammoud, Mrad, Addoum), we should all focus on Lahhoud's accepting cooperation and on the security services' now-established shameful incompetence.

The Economist: Lebanon needs a unity government

in this article in the latest Economist issue, the newspaper argues that the void is just too costly for the country; I appologize to The Economist for Abusing my online subscription.

Fill that vacuum
Mar 23rd 2005 | BEIRUT

As nerves fray, could the Arab world's first female prime minister emerge?
YOUNG Beirutis bobbed on with the bamba at their fanciest nightclub, the Music Hall, as text messages relayed news on March 18th of the country's first car-bomb since the one that blew up their former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, last month. But behind the bravado lurks fear that the party may be turning sour. Five days later, another bombing in a Christian area north of Beirut killed two people, further raising sectarian tension. Mr Hariri's greatest legacy—the bustling complex of shopping colonnades that was once Beirut's war-battered centre—is again a nervous no man's land.


Might Bahia Hariri be called to the top?

The opposition, which wants Syria to let go of its hold over Lebanon, is still able to put on a good street party, papering over the country's differences. Christians who once castigated Mr Hariri for Islamising the country by building a massive mosque with minarets soaring above the churches downtown dutifully hang his photograph from their balconies. Young anti-Syrian activists in their tent city, put up to keep vigil by Mr Hariri's shrine in Martyrs' Square, have acquired friendships and even lovers across the sectarian divide. Where demonstrations elsewhere in the Arab world are guided by men with beards, in Beirut the front lines are still being manned by fashion queens with Pekinese dogs wrapped in Lebanon's flag, along with suave bankers accompanied by Sri Lankan maids.

But Lebanon is now counting the costs of the stand-off with Syria, which has taken half of its occupying army back home and withdrawn the rest to the Bekaa valley in the east. The legion of Syrian construction workers, who rebuilt Beirut, have taken flight in fear of reprisals. Heineken has suspended plans to open a brewery; a flock of cranes stand stationary over the city. The city municipality is advertising for hundreds of rubbish collectors. Jobless Lebanese are keenly awaiting the day when an independent government will impose work visas on Syrian migrants they accuse of stealing their jobs.

But Central Bank economists say the exodus of migrant workers will push up salaries (since Syrian labourers worked for $6 a day, whereas most Lebanese expect $18), spike inflation and cut profits. An injection of Kuwaiti and Saudi capital has so far matched the flight of Syrian capital, but bankers fear that angry rulers in Damascus may block Lebanon's trade routes to the Arab world. “If the gains are lost, the euphoria will be baseless,” says one.

In any event, the street protests have brought down a government but left a political vacuum. Lebanon remains a tinderbox of sectarian rivalries, making regime change a complex business. The opposition is an uneasy alliance of sects, led by warlords jostling for position. Christian leaders suspect that Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader, is working the Lebanese crowd and world opinion for his own political ends. When he spoke of winds of regional change blowing west from Iraq, he may genuinely have seen a democratic light. But many Lebanese think that Mr Jumblatt, a lifelong “anti-imperialist” who lambasted America's invasion of Iraq, was singing from Washington's hymn sheet just to win President Bush's backing.

So Christian Maronite leaders, including their patriarch, have rallied to prevent the Druze leader anointing his own man as president, a post the constitution allots to one of their own, even though uneasy about the continuing rule of their co-religionist, President Emile Lahoud, who is seen as a stooge of his Syrian counterpart, Bashir Assad. “That guy [Mr Jumblatt] waged war for 15 years against the Maronites,” says an aide of the patriarch. “We don't want to see a Maronite president thrown to the wolves like a piece of meat.”

Sniffing a chance to divide the opposition, Mr Lahoud's remaining men are fanning sectarian flames. “If they keep on pushing internationally and domestically, it will blow up into a civil war,” says a presidential official. Though Mr Lahoud can no longer count on the army, which has already disobeyed orders to crush the demonstrators, his security chiefs are continuing their reign.

Lebanon is exhausted by war, but the ingredients for violence are still very much there. While the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Islamist movement, Hizbullah, is Lebanon's best-armed militia, all the old warlords still have their private ports, through which they can rush arms into Lebanon within hours.

So far all the country's religious leaders have sought to restrain ambitious sectarian politicians, but the opposition sorely needs a unifying figure. Mr Hariri's sister Bahia, an MP, has impressed with her moderation, courage and non-sectarian embrace. While some of the best-known opposition figures, such as Mr Jumblatt and the Maronite leader, Amin Gemayel, have retreated to their strongholds in apparent fear for their lives, Ms Hariri calmed the crowds from the podium in Martyrs' Square. She hurried to comfort New Jdeideh, a Christian suburb in Beirut hit by last week's bomb. And she has reached out to the restless followers of Hizbullah.

If she were made prime minister, it would hardly reduce the blight of nepotism. But it would at least give all Lebanon's communities a respected prime minister to fill the vacuum and the modern Arab world its first female leader. That really would mark a break.

Also, the BBC has a story about the points of view of the PRO-Syrian Lebanese, a must read.

A significant day

Today, to many observers, is a very important day on the Lebanese scene. Some would go as far as saying that it’s the most important day since Hariri was killed.

Peter Fitzgerald’s report about the circumstances, causes and consequences of the Hariri assassination is going to be released with significant impact on the ground.

It is no secret that this report, to say the least, will have a dramatic effect. Last week, several big-name international newspapers prominently featured the Hariri Assassination in well-publicized pieces. As if directed by a magic wand, They all point an accusing finger at Syria. (Although last minute reports are downplaying Syrian involvment)
The desired effect has been achieved, these Articles’ URLs caught up like fire on the World Wide Web. The Lebanese from Vancouver to Sydney have either read them on a news site, blog, or received them in an email.

It is not a coincidence that Koffie Annan, spoke almost exclusively yesterday of the Hariri case in the Arab summit that had shamefully dodged the Lebanese issue.
Before a visibly nervous Bashar el Assad, Annan talked of the heroism of Rafiq el Hariri and of the need to conduct a large and credible investigation.

Meanwhile, politicians in Lebanon are also getting prepared. Bahia el Hariri and Walid Jumblat –arguably the closest two to the slain Hariri- seem to have gotten a preview of the content of that report. They have both been saying that it will not bode well for the authorities.

Karami was stalling the government formation until he knows what today will reveal. The lead judge following the hariri case resigned in despair, while the security authorities are trying relentlessly to cause unrest in the country.

The saboteurs are too busy planting bombs in Christian areas. Maybe the Christians would be so clueless about what’s going on to actually think that it’s the Moslems who did it. The security people just don’t get it, I can’t think of a single Christian today who would think like this:
Damn those Moslems! Let’s bomb Verdun and Dahie, and let’s tell the Syrians to come back to protect us!

Anyway, I don’t know exactly what time the report is going to be released, but, like every one else, I’m excited.

In Praise of the other “Foreign workers”

Most Lebanese bloggers are now concerned with the political ramifications of the Kaslik bombings. I trust they’re going to do a great job; this is why I’m going to say something else, something that needs to be said.

I want to say a big THANK YOU, to all our brothers and sisters the Srilankis, Indians, Philipinos, Eritrians, Ethiopians, Pakistanis and other precious souls who have contributed greatly in making the Lebanese live a better and more prosperous life.

These brave people traveled to the ends of the world so that their children could have a promising future. They assist us with the jobs nobody else wants to take, we pay them peanuts, and still, they answer with hard work, smiles, and now, their lives.

We hope the lives that were lost in the kaslik bombing won’t be gone in waste…

Euro-Arabs

I was chatting with my Syrian friend the other day. I figured he’d be an interesting person to discuss with the coming Arab League summit.

He’s a well-read and well-traveled man. He’s the kind of person that can easily incorporate Sartre, Proust, or Hemingway in a conversation. He can identify a Bach symphony on the spot, and he speaks 5 languages fluently.
We talked about the Lebanese Syrian issue, and the first thing he tells me is this: “This is a big game, designed by he US to balkanize the middle east, to secure a regional dominance for Israel”. He added in a self-righteous tone that we, the Lebanese, have naively fallen for such designs.

I asked for it, I told myself, but guess what the First thought I had in mind was? Old Europe.

My friend belongs to the category of Arabs that like to talk more about strategies and grand conspiracies than elections. I like to call them the Euro-Arabs (my apologies to sensible Europeans). To them, shadowy people with dubious agendas rule the world, and try through their influence and power to subjugate defenseless peoples. All this is done under the cover of spreading democracy and liberation, while in reality they are engaging in an economic imperialism to create new markets for their greedy multinationals. (this is just too Naomi Klein for me)

You see them on Aljazeera all the time; they take the shape of regime apologists and US bashers.
Mix some pan-Arabism with anti-Americanism, add some socialism and ivory tower intellectualism, and presto: Euro-Arabism!
To name a few, Najah wakim, founder of the people movement in Lebanon, Mustapha Bakri, managing director and chief editor of the journal Al-Osboa in Egypt and Abdel Bari Atwan who is the editor-in-chief of London-based al kuds al arabi newspaper.

They are all very well educated and cultured, they seem sensible at the first encounter, and they definitely appeal to flag-burning masses. But their arguments just don’t add up, and I can’t help but notice that they are excessively alarmist and loud when it comes to American “designs” in the region. And what gets on my nerve most: they just don’t accept the other point of view.

Back to my friend, who now saw that I was visibly irritated. He told me that he also thinks that the Syrian regime is corrupt and needs change, but the “regional challenges” at this point are too great for such meddling, and if he had to chose between American hegemony and corrupt Arab rulers, he’ll chose the latter.

I think the Euro-Arabs have got it backwards: how can you have a “regional strategy” if you can’t even chose your ruler? Who decides what those strategies should be? Who decides what actions lead to a desired strategic outcome?

Granted, the US is not innocent, it has overt and covert interests, and it is also catering for special-interest groups, but at the end, the government is accountable to the American people.

The Euro-Arab logic would have been funny if it weren’t all too common. Why are their ideas so attractive to even the most enlightened of Arabs? I think it’s because of 3 major factors: Convenience, Rulers’ interests and most importantly, a legitimate lack of Trust in the US.

I’ll be talking about these in a future post.

A Syrian Maverick

What do you get when a Syrian veteran writer gets sick of the Syrian ‘journalistic’ establishment and writes in a Lebanese newspaper about it?

A funny and scathing criticism that is long overdue. I hope he finds somewhere in Lebanon to stay; Syria is not a safe place for him anymore.

Also, following a trend of Leaking by British Newspapers before Thursday's Fitzgeral report, After the Independent and the Times, now The Guardian Pitches in with its own version of it's-definitely-the-Syrians.

The Strategy So Far

The opposition is getting harder to keep track of, but from what Jumblat said from Egypt yesterday, and from the noises Cardinal Sfeir is making, their strategy boils down to a few points:

- Allow Karami to form a government to oversee the elections; this government should be whatever karami choses as long as it has a shred of decency (some objectionable people like assem kanso, Nasser kandil and we’am wahab should not be part of it)

-Wait till after the elections for lahhoud to resign

-Consider Hezbollah an internal issue that should not be discussed with outside powers, and that should be solved internally. The Americans seem to be openminded about it, Albalad newspaper reported that a state department official declared that Hezbollah's weapons is an internal Lebanese issue

-wait for the comming UN report to see the effects it's going to have

I think this is a sensible strategy, especially the Hezbollah one, they seem to have found a middle ground on that. let’s see how it unfolds.

Signs..

A group of US democratic house members visiting the opposition members, Walid Jumblat flying to Egypt to see president Mubarak and Hezbollah formally honoring Hariri’s grave with noise and pomp. What does all of this mean?

It simply indicates the growing deterioration of the Lahhoud regime’s relationship with the Americans, the Arabs, and it now seems more likely, with Hezbollah.

When Darrel Issa and Nancy Pelosi (two of the most powerful US democratic members of the house of representatives in the US, one of them is the democratic minority leader and the other is the person who financed the recall campaign of the previous California governor) head a team of 8 US officials and visit Marwan Hmedeh at his home, you don’t need a cryptographer to understand the message they’re sending.

For the president of the most populous Arab country to receive the Lebanese opposition leader, in a clear snub to Syria, on the wake of an Arab summit, you get a hint of what is to come regarding the “Syrian-Lebanese Issue” from the Arabic establishment.

And Finally, Hezbollah is starting to realize that aligning itself closely with the Hariri Movement is better for the future than kissing up to Damascus… (wishful thinking? Far fetched? Well, the signs on the ground, to me at least, are telling)

It would be interesting to see how things turn up in the Arab summit…

Praying For Basil

This is a picture from yesterday's vigil. For more, i found a dedicated blog that has updates, prayers and pictures about basil Fuleihan...

George, it's your turn now...

After The independent and the Times of London, it's the New York Time's turn to shed the light on the Hariri Assasination. The Sunday's Times has a Summary of all the events that led to the assassination of the Lebanese ex prime minister.

The article has a personal take on Hariri's last days and presents all the motives that the Syrians had to kill him. You emerge from reading it with a clear thought: it's the Syrians! (i personally didn't need to read it to believe it)

This article follows a trend by the Americans and by the British to prepare the grounds before the potentially damning Fitzgerald report comes out. The report is widely expected to point the finger at the Syrians' direction.

P.S:if you don't have a NYtimes Subscription, do it, it's for free and very much worth it..

Hey Tony, Tell them about that UN thingy:

Ok, You’re the world’s greatest superpower, and you have a problem:
You want to influence a people into a rebellion, but you also want to keep a low profile because your ‘perceived’ meddling weakens your allies.
You just learned that the UN Security Council is about to release a report that will have a dramatic impact on the ground; you know that such a report calls for laying the groundwork by ‘leaking’. This brings another problem: your media lack credibility in that region of the world.
What do you do?

The Americans seem to have found the solution: Send in your friend’s media.

After ‘The Independent’, it’s London’s ‘Times’ newspaper‘s turn to talk about the Syrian hands in the Hariri Slaying, a few days before the widely anticipated Koffie Annan report.

The Times mentions some comments Hariri made to Jumblat about “The Syrians Following Us”, and “one of us will be hit in the next two weeks”, it also adds the warnings terry Roejd Larsen gave to Hariri about his security, and talks about the complication of planting 600 pounds of explosives into the asphalt, and reaches to an incontestable conclusions: The Syrians did it.

Meanwhile, the groundwork in Beirut is being laid too: Annahar’s Ali Hmedeh (who is now also the host of future tv’s main political talk show) warns the regime of resolution 1566 (In a nutshell, this is a recent chapter-7 security council resolution that has a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, and which classifies political assassinations as such. A chapter-7 resolution is the highest kind of severity the international community can afford, it involves military action in the case of non-compliance, like in the case of Iraq and the Libyan Lockerbie case).

Also, all analysts are reading the surete general chief Jamil Sayyed’s latest move of presenting a case against himself as a sort of political hedging against what is to come…

In short, if you thought you’ve seen a lot, wait till next week.

Two takes

Here are two very different takes on the media war in Lebanon;

Fayez al Sa'egh, the editor in chief of Althawra newspaper (Syria), shows how much he's appalled at the way the hariri media is being directed, as if by Zionist and American hands, which he thinks are very different from the 'real' direction of the hariri movement (read at your own risk, content sickening)

Another take is by The Economist, in this week's issue, you can find it here. It's taken from a general rather socio-economic perspective, but to have a clue, this is a preview:

The media-savvy opposition, advised by Beirut's top advertising firms, has been quick to grab the limelight with catchy banners, slogans and gimmicks. “They have prettier girls,” concedes a Shia village headman.

For his part, Syria's president, Bashar Assad, moans that if cameras only “zoomed out”, the scale of anti-Syrian feeling would shrink to its true size. He might do well to reflect instead on his country's own state television monopoly. For hours after Mr Hariri's murder, Syrian television blithely ran cartoons, followed by a programme on the glories of Syria's archaeological ruins.

tell me what you think

Up!

I never thought I’d find myself quoting Shania Twain, but here goes nothing: "it's got as bad as it could be… It can only go up from here"

Mr. Bassem Sabe3 (MP) said it best: Mr Jamil el Sayyed's press conference is nothing but one of the last wails of a dying regime, which is dying a painful and humiliating death (ok, I confess, the last bit is of my own invention), but the idea is this: the regime has got its back to the wall, and it's getting scared and noisy.

Did you see the face of that man? In Arabic they say "bikibb sahn il laban", in other words, he looked very stressed..

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that the man can't be dangerous, something tells me he's sensing the noose around his neck (think Fitzgerald). This somehow made him think that it's a good idea to break every single protocol and constitutional law and talk politics...

He unleashed a barrage of anger among real politicians who gleefully reminded him that he's nothing but a public servant and that he has to stay away from politics (I remembered when rumsfeld was shaking in his pants when he was being questioned by senators after the Iraq war, politicians suddenly started to look powerful)..Even Naharnet seems to be optimistic..

Mr. Lahhoud is losing his cards one after the other, and he had better not decide to go out with a bang (well, another one)

Fly me to the moon

This flyer is been distributed in Lebanon at night.
We, in the beirut spring, think that it is unfair that people who have, ermm, decent causes, face satellite TVs and Newspapers with flyers, so we decided to give them a hand, the flyer is now on the world wide web:

DISCLAIMER: the flyer below is purely for the sake of sarcasm and should be not taken for real (can you believe some people actually advised me to write this??)


(if you have a slow connection, please wait till the image loads)

Building Hezbollah’s safety net

“I would hope that Hezbollah would prove that they're not [terrorist] by laying down arms and not threatening peace,” was a comment President Bush of the U.S. Made on the wake of the visit of Cardinal Sfeir to Washington. Sfeir is seen as a moderate and a unifying figure among the Lebanese Christians, and he's widely expected to defend Hezbollah at the whitehouse.

Bahia Hariri expressed a similar largesse: “We here also represent [..] Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and all the patriot strugglers. They are here with us because they lie in our hearts and love and added brilliant white pages to our history”. Bahia Hariri, MP and the sister of the Slain Ex-PM Rafik Hariri, embraced Hezbollah in front of one million Lebanese who otherwise look at Hezbollah with suspicion

Walid Jumblat, another opposition leader, asks Hezbollah again and again to join the opposition and lay their arms,

Other opposition Mps (who are regularly villified in Hezbollah's rallies) said that they have defended Hezbollah in front of influential Europeans. Ahmad Fatfat, an opposition figure, even added that only the opposition now has the moral authority to do so abroad…

All that said, will Hezbollah make use of the safety net carefully being woven around it by all its opponents?

We can only wait and see whether realism or idealistic rethoric will prevail, but I trust Hassan Nassrallah is a wise man, not another Said Sahhaf (the old Iraqi information minister who is the perfect embodiment of the ostrich strategy)

(For more about the external factors that might influence Mr Nasrallah’s decision, read Raja’s big-picture analysis on The Lebanese bloggers..)

Time to Update the Slogans

We have all seen the demonstration in Beirut yesterday, and by all standards, it was the largest and most representative in our history. More than the third of the population turned out, and to put things in perspective, that would be the equivalent of 40 million protesters in the US, (or 500 Million in China, but that's another story)

Now what? What’s next? How should the opposition tread?

One of the most immediate concerns among the oppositions sympathizers, voiced in blogs, saloons, press and the Lebanese street, is the fact that the Syrian withdrawal, if it is really going to happen as announced, is going to shatter the opposition into its previous inter-warring parochial self. Witness Rage in Lebanon matters: "I believe all hell will break loose within the ranks of the mou3arada after it reaches its goal"

But the opposition will still have a lot in common after the Syrians withdraw. Their next challenge will be to market their largely fuzzy and amorphous other goals to the masses. To do that, they should start shifting slightly the emphasis of their popular campaign along these lines:

The bad guys:
when we refer to the bad guys, we should start talking less about the Syrians (and definitely less about hizbullah) and more about the Police state's heavy handedness and the shadow government that really runs the show. For simplicity, we need to find a simple name for that new bad guy, something that could fit easily in the sentence: 'hey w yalla, _______ tla' barra' (i welcome suggestions); i must say, although president Lahhoud is an appropriate symbol of the police state and his name has a nice comical ring to it, he is not a good choice because the opposition shouldn't be seen to be picking on one person.

The cause:
The cause should shift a bit from freedom, sovereignty, and independence towards "people rule, accountability and universal suffrage". I leave it up to the linguists to find an appropriate expression that rings as nicely as "hurryeh, syedeh, istiklel".
"Just Go" and "take them with you" is a step in the right direction, but we need something in Arabic that would fit in a jingle my 10 year old cousin could sing.
Take the Americans for instance, they like to talk about: 'A government for the people, of the people, by the people', I’m sure we can find something nice in Arabic as well.
And of course, we shouldn't forget: "Who killed Rafik Hariri?" and "we want the truth."

The Means:
We should start talking more about free and fair elections, more about international observers and less about protests; after all, humans are humans, and protest-fatigue will eventually creep in. I know my grand mother for instance demonstrated yesterday, but she said it's her last time, she's too old to go from Tripoli to Beirut everytime for an all day standing protest; "intifadat al sanadik" maybe?

The Dynamics:
Behind the scene Marketers, strategists and other grass root organizers should be working hard to coordinate people, media, slogans and publications, to maintain a consistent and orchestrated message that is forced down our throats Future-tv style.
Psst, I’m talking with you Wael Abou Faour, Salim Diab and Khodor Makkaoui (just in case you don’t know the last guy, he’s the founder of “Independence ’05”

Be creative guys, I want to start singing something new, something that will remain relevant for the coming months..

The Beirut Blossom..

March 14, 2005...No Comment

From Ali To Bahia, With Love...

Hello Madame, my name is Ali,
I am a Shia Lebanese and I like to think of myself as a proud Arab,
I come from a tiny pocket of Dahié, Southern Beirut,
I work as a carpenter and I hardly earn my living,
I watch Almanar and Aljazeera in my small place,
When I get sick, I go to a Hizbullah-funded charity hospital, These people are very good to me,

You know Bahia, the month that passed was really difficult for me,
I saw your brother being savagely murdered.
This made me worry about the future of my country.

What made me worry even more, Bahia, is the people your group has been surrounding itself with since then, I don't trust these people Bahia, what's wrong?

Why are you hanging out with people that were shaking hands with the criminals who killed a lot of my cousins, neighbors and friends? Bahia, these people speak French in their houses, not Arabic!

But now I understand..

I heard you talk today...

Now, Bahia, I can sleep again...

I heard the same voice of moderation that made your brother so special to me,

I heard you embrace my leaders and pride yourself of their contribution to our country's liberation,

I saw you equate the southern resistance with your brother's rebuilding of Beirut, and the Lebanese people.

Most importantly Bahia, I saw everyone around you cheer approvingly,

You know, I hate to say that, but maybe I was wrong about your new friends,

Maybe they do accept me for who I am, maybe they do love my country as much as I do...

Maybe the security apparatus is indeed bad for our country,

Maybe you and your people can protect me like the Syrians used to,

Thank you Bahia, Thank you,

It was very suffocating when everyone was referring to my brothers as traitors,

But now, I can sleep again, and maybe, just maybe, I can dream of a new and independent Lebanon,

Love,
Ali

(P.S, this letter is pure fiction and used only as an illustration)

Euphoria!

So Mr. Karami said the pro-Syrian Tripoli demonstration was postponed because of bad weather?

Today, i finally understood what the 'bad weather' is really about, i'm getting word-of-mouth accounts from Tripoli today that are unbelievable!
Lebanese Flags on all houses, people desperate to go to the Beirut Demo and not finding places on the hundreds of buses lined up. Loud speakers in every street blarring nationalistic music. Some gas stations offering Benzine for free for cars going to beirut... such a lively bee-hive Tripoli has become (bye bye lethargy), i never felt so proud i am from there...

i was watching T.V this morning, you really know that the Syrians are losing influence big-time when you see a poor guy from dinnyieh, with no political backbone whatsoever, demanding the Syrian army to withdraw now!

This is a message my sister just sent me from Tripoli
"Everybody is happy, everybody is greeting everybody on the streets, everyone has a flag, i am actually waving a flag from d car to other people. Our flag is great!"

(i wish i was in lebanon)

A time for a laugh, some text messages that are spreading quickly in Lebanon:
"If you're sweet, i'll call you a sweety, if you like sugar, i'll call you honey, if you stay home today, i'll call you Soury"

"Leish el sha3b el Lubneni shayef halou 3al 3alam? la'annou akhra wahed fiyyon Ra'ees jumhuryyeh!"

share the smiles!

Hariri international Airport

I have read in Time magazine what roughly means this: bloggers are most powerful when they concentrate on an issue, follow it through and build an online supporting momentum towards achieving the issue's goal. (for those familiar with American Politics, it was bloggers that uncovered the Trent Lott scandal that eventually led to the resignation of one of the most powerful men in American politics)

In the new section "Issue Follow-up" in the Beirut spring, I will be focusing on an issue every now and then, and with your help, we should be able to make change happen...

The follow up issue I'm focusing on now, is renaming Beirut International Airport as 'Rafik Hariri's International Airport- Beirut'; this idea was first proposed by ex-minister Najib Mikati in a letter addressed to the Lebanese Government on February 22nd.

How can you Help?

1- Sign the petition
2- Encourage everyone you know to sign this petition; Beirut Spring does not support SPAM, so the best way to propagate the news is to write about it in your blog if you have one, or in personalized emails explaining the cause.
3- After the petition gains enough signatories, we will use all our means to let officials notice it.

so let's start the not-so-hard work guys!

Some Advice to Opposition

I'm optimistic, lots of good things happening, but the opposition needs to be careful, my humble contribution, some advice to them:

-Always remind the people of what you have in common with hizballah
-Market the MPs visit to Europe as an effort to defend hizbullah (already done by Annahar newspaper today)
-Market Cardinal Sfeir's visit to the US in the same light (I am sure Mr. Sfeir is shrewd enough to say exactly that after meeting Mr. Bush)
-Welcome Mr. Karami's disclosure to alsharqual awsat newspaper today that he will allow an international observers team headed by ex US-president Jimmy Carter.
-Offer something in return for the above-mentioned
-Keep the movements in the street strictly non-confrontational and fun like the huge human flag of today (which I can't see why hizbullah followers wouldn't join, I would advise the opposition to lure them in), you have to accept that the numbers game is not our strong point.

The points above should be part of a general 4-part strategy:

- Accept that hizballah IS a popular force
- Pursue rapprochement with them
- Isolate the Syrian/Lebanese security aparatus
- Convince the Lebanese people (in the middle) that the opposition is flexible and that it has Lebanon's ultimate benefit at heart

Good luck

My name is..

My Name is Omar Karami,
I am your New prime minister,
I spent the last few days reflecting,
I thought i'd give the premiereship another try,
I knew the public couldn't spend so much time without me,
after all, i represent the majority,
everyone loves me and thinks i'm funny
i know i'm not pretty, but that doesn't matter,
I love the opposition, as a matter of fact,
i love them so much i want them next to me
i want them next to me, I MEAN NOW
where are you? you don't like me?
opposition! get your asses over here!
what? you don't want to come?
you bastards,
you are bankrupting lebanon!
My name is omar karami..

The Other Northern Winds...

When asked about whom he will nominate for the premiership, a loyalist MP answered wryly, in a reference to Karami: 'The wind is Northern'.

Today, the pro Syrian demonstration in Tripoli might be so large that it could actually dwarf the Beirut one.

When Mr. Omar Karami resigned under pressure, Tripoli was all but deadlocked in unrest and riots.

Should we conclude from the above that Tripoli is a hopeless case for the opposition?

It is tempting to dismiss the Sunni north as a strong Loyalist bastion. If Sunni Beirut and Saida joined the opposition because of their strong affectionate ties with Hariri, why should 'Tarablos al sham' (as Tripoli was previously known)?

Because of, among other reasons, the efforts of one person: Musbah al Ahdab.

Heir of an old political family in Tripoli, Mr. Ahdab abandoned the Tripoli political mainstream to join the calls for Syria to quit Lebanon.
Even before Hariri's murder, he took stands that any northern observer would consider imprudent at best.

When he was first elected as an MP, his critics dismissed his mandate as nothing but the result of his dashing good looks and some infatuated 'bird-brained' female voters.

How wrong they were. Underneath his soft-spoken style and snazzy attire lies a shrewd and cunning politician; with a Jumblatesque radar for political winds, he knew when to ally with Hariri's future movements, when to dissociate himself from them (while still making under-the-table electoral deals with them) and finally when to join the anti Syrian opposition.

It takes considerable courage for a Sunni to stand up to the Syrians. Remember, This is a regime that is known for its legendary brutality against the Sunnis, From the Hamah massacre to the assassination of the mufti Hassan Khaled to the assassination of Hariri. Still, Musbah al Ahdab was the first Sunni to join the opposition and the Bristol gathering. He voted 'No' for extending Mr. Emile Lahhoud's term as president, thus joining Annahar Newspaper's tiny 'Honor List'. Mr. Ahdab gained so much popularity that, a few days before Hariri's assassination, The Tripoli block, made of veteran Tripoli MPs, declared an electoral alliance with him.

Mr. Ahdab is the first notable in Tripoli to break the wall of fear against the Syrians. He has unleashed a political snowball, and lots of previously notorious pro-Syrians are now cozying up to him... He sparked the change of the political winds in Tripoli. This is why a lot of people think that he'd make a good assassination target for the Syrians.

As you watch the huge pro-Syrian demonstration today, remember that the people who will vote for Mr. Ahdab are probably going to have the last laugh...

PS: Although I'm from Tripoli and I'm voting for mr Ahdab, I am not in any away affiliated with him and have never communicated with him or with his aids.

The Emergence of the Legitimate Pro Syrians (LPS)

Before you start reading, I want you to take a thorough look at the web-ranking graph above. Look at what is happening in March. What do you see?

Assafir newspaper, for those of you who don't know, speaks for the Pro-Syrians in Lebanon; its editor in chief, Talal Salman, a sexagenarian, is a pro-Syrian ideologue. He's a proud Arabist that believes firmly in the common destiny of Lebanon and Syria, and he always sounds alarmist when it comes to 'Foreign' -read 'Western'- schemes for the region.

Assafir remains an exception. Like Fox News, It has found itself a niche. The other three news sources in the above chart are, in various degrees, anti-Syrian.

Why is Assafir gaining readership?
It's because of what I call the legitimate pro-Syrians (LPS)...

How do I define an LPS?
An LPS is a Lebanese citizen who will vote, without intimidation, without bribery, without bullying for a pro-Syria candidate in the coming election. And when I say 'pro-Syria', I mean it in the same way that I would call an Englishman 'pro-Europe'. The LPS is really convinced that being pro Syrian is good for the country, and needless to say, not all pro-Syrians are LPS.

Why are they mobilizing now?
One of the known rules of politics is that when a group has a secured majority, it doesn't mobilize aggressively.
This is now changing. When the Syrian army was forced to leave, they found themselves suddenly facing a new situation: a level playing field (still not too level yet). Their excessively inflated power is back to normal proportions, they have to compete for the voters' hearts and minds, and their opponents are numerous, vocal, determined, bitter and very angry...

Before a free and fair election next spring, we can't really tell how much of the pro Syrians are LPS; however, we do know one: Talal Salman, and if the chart above is any indication, the opposition should start taking note.

Red state/Blue state... Lebanese style

A country on a verge of a crucial election is divided into two very vocal opposing camps...

Both these camps organize large rallies... both camps are deeply distrustful of each other, both are very self-righteous, both accuse the other of being less nationalistic, both are very resourceful and both believe they're the majority... the rhetoric at both sides is virulent, and they both see nothing less than the future of the whole country at stake...

The first camp is roughly composed of the young, educated, intellectual, the liberal and the media...

The second is roughly made of large interest holders, religious conservatives, illiterates, traditionalists, older people, and gun holders...

Third parties, alarmed at the unprecedented level of partisanship, are trying to form, but their following is scant and negligible...

No, I'm not talking about America before the November 2004 elections, this is very much Beirut Yesterday.

Welcome to our own culture war American-style...

When Hassan Nassrallah of Hizbullah took to the podium yesterday, hundreds of thousands of crowds listened and cheered...
'Puppets!' screamed the opposition; 'traitors' answered the loyalists...

All this is scary stuff, but the Lebanese, like the Americans before them, need to remember that Democracy is a mess, and no matter how much we try to question the legitimacy of the other, both camps do exist and have support on the street.

So I propose that people start looking to the positive side of the story:

Both parties made peaceful demonstrations, both parties predominantly held the Lebanese Flag, and both parties are showing cautious trust towards each other (albeit marred by populist offensive comments every now and then).

My fellow bloggers should be screaming foul by now (we are the liberal media after all). They would say that I couldn't possibly put the Syrian stooges and the Nationalists on the same moral level...
To that I have an answer: Remember how The Europeans could not even imagine that George W. Bush had people that would actually vote for him? They thought no sane person would possibly vote for that war-mongering, superficial polluter, but yet, the American voters proved them wrong.

What I'm trying to say is that we should waste less energy on panicking and questioning intentions, and more on trying to secure a free and fair election next spring... The Syrians should withdraw fully and we should have international observers for the elections, but, that having happened, we should not, under any circumstances refuse the results...

As for you Mr. Nasrallah, don't be too smug; you have much more in common with George W. Bush than you'd like to think.

Wanted: The Opponent's Intellectuals

I've been browsing through the myriad of Lebanese Blogs that have recently been created, and one thing struck me: we all seem to see eye-to-eye on the Lebanese/Syrian Issue. The tones are different, some are more emotional and some are more rational, some are well informed and some rely on rumors, some have a big picture view and some are caught in details, some rely on photographs, others on words and others on numbers and statistics.
Yet, more or less, we all seem to agree on the crust of the matter: The Syrian's presence in Lebanon is pure evil and anathema to our feelings...

Throughout history, even the most oppressive and morally questionable orders and regimes had a driving philosophical and intellectual force behind them. Hitler had Frederick Nietzsche, Staline had Karl Marx, and the Bush team has Thomas Hobbs and Natan Sharansky. Even Saddam Hussein was said to be greatly influenced by Salheddin el Ayyoubi. These intellectuals have been the functioning cores of most rulers in history and are the single most reason why those regime seem to be behaving with such conviction and more importantly, having the ability to amass popular support.

Still, I am yet to find one single blogger that is willing, with conviction, to defend the 'Syrian Doctrine'.

Hey, intellectual opponent, I am begging you to show your face. I refuse to believe that hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are gathering today in Riad al Solh simply because they were intimidated, I want you to answer me: what drives them?

Hey, intellectual opponent, don't be afraid to be an agent provocateur; we do not want to replace a single-opinion regime with another, we cherish opinion diversity, we are all citizens and we believe in the universal suffrage...

Hey, intellectual opponent, don't be afraid to be outnumbered in the blogosphere; nothing enriches the ultra-liberal New York Times like their conservative columnist David Brooks, who incidentally is my favorite Op-ed Columnist... sometimes you might see things differently in a way that benefits our common well-being...

Hey, intellectual opponent, (and I'm not talking to you Nasser Kandil), who are you? What do you stand for? Why do you think we're wrong? Tell us, I challenge you to show your face.

Hey, intellectual opponent, Start a blog! talk to us!

We are all waiting...

(this opinion piece also appears on Lebanon Matters)

Spring Flowers..

Alright guys, sorry for not posting for a while, i was preparing these blue ribbons
for you to add to your websites, please feel free to use them and refer other
people to them; i linked mine to www.forlebanon.net, but you can link yours to
whatever you chose (maybe to this page?) A technical note though, these are .png
images with a transparent background, so they should work with all colors (i
wouldn't recommend blue though)
Small:


Medium:

Large:

Dear Cheerleaders

Amid a cheering crowd waving Syrian flags in a stunning show of creativity, Mr. Assad came to the Syrian ‘parliament’ to address the cheering nation.
Confident, confrontational, humorous and righteous, he made the speech no living creature on earth, Mars or Venus can ever forget:

Dear Cheerleaders,

I know, I know, you love me, you voted for me, remember? just let me talk please…

Syria Is a great nation, our values have greatly contributed to world’s well being, witness how we selflessly sacrificed ourselves and spent blood to help the thankless Lebanese. (Applause)

The whole world is conspiring against us, they discredit us with their media, their envoys misunderstand us, they portray us in a demonic light and they are jealous of us...

But that won’t stop us!

We shall fight till the bitter end and history will prove us right! (Applause)

We are not withdrawing our troops from Lebanon because the Lebanese people, America, Britain, France, Europe and the whole world are pressuring us every day to,

No, we are not! We are withdrawing because we wanted to withdraw since the beginning!
Let me explain our elaborate 5-part skillfully crafted foreign policy that the great nation of Syria produced, in a marvelous show of collaboration between its politicians, think tanks, NGOs and experts…

Before i finish, i have a lame joke to tell you (Sincere laughters from crowd), ok, now back to the speech,

Friends, Brothers, sisters, Syrians!

We are withdrawing from Lebanon although the Lebanese love us,
And they’ll love us even more now, God bless Syria!