Aoun's Moment

Michel Aoun should speak now…or forever hold his peace.


To hell with being a minister

If the responses to my previous post are any indication, Hezbollah’s actions in the south are deeply unpopular with the Lebanese. Still, the government now being formed is touted as one that should protect the “resistance” and defy U.N. resolution 1559 (that calls for Hezbollah's disarmament).

If our elected leaders have their way, they will also include traditional opponents of Hezbollah (Like Michel Aoun and Qornet Shahwan) in their government of “national action”, to the dismay of the people who voted for them.

This is why the violence in the south now presents both an opportunity and a threat to politicians who are traditionally opposed to Hezbollah’s role.

On one hand, if they accept what’s going on and proceed with joining the government, it would be a seal of approval to Hezbollah’s reckless behavior. This will make them subject to popular anger and will cost them dearly in the next elections. (It will also strip Michel Aoun of his dearly held maverick status)

On the other hand, this is their golden opportunity to assert themselves. Michel Aoun for instance could ask for some form of control over Hezbollah if he is to join the government. If Qornet Shahwan does the same (to please its mad-as-hell constituency and to fix their reputation as “softies”), it will strip away the international legitimacy that the government sorely needs.

In other words, Michel Aoun, all eyes are on you now. It is time you established that “5% difference” between your program and Hariri’s and show us what you’re really made of.

Letter From Israel

On the wake of the fire exchange between Hizballah and the Israeli army in the south, Israeli planes showered some shiit areas of Beirut and the South with leaflets with the following warning/appeal (in Arabic), here's a translation:

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To: The Lebanese government and the Lebanese people

The Hizbullah organization carried out an act of terror inside Israeli territory. Hizbullah serves foreign interests and acts with the intention of dragging Israel to respond in a way that would justify its terrorist existence; These irresponsible moves could bring destruction and return Lebanon to its years of horror, at a time when hope for peace and prosperity in a New Lebanon has been created.

Don't allow Hizbullah to gamble with the future of Lebanon and cause harm to the Lebanese people who chose a different way.

Israel sees the Lebanese government as responsible for any hostile act that occurs on Lebanese territory and (is directed) towards Israel and expects it to act immediately to implement its rule in the south and stop Hizbullah from bringing a dangerous military escalation in the area.

The State of Israel

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So guys, I would like your Honest opinion about this aparent new Israeli Strategy. Is it just plain naif or will it find its way into some hearts and minds?
Do you agree with its contents or do you think it's baseless propaganda?

The Transition Man

Najib Mikati has added his name to the list of Great Lebanese.


When Najib Mikati volunteered to fill in the gap in this complicated transitional period, everyone was skeptical. This blog trusted him, but his promises seemed too good to be true. He was to manage free and fair elections, sack the entrenched heads of security, and facilitate an international inquiry into the murder of martyr Rafik Hariri.

All this was to be done at a period were the Syrians were still too influential. To make things even more complicated, he had to give the impression of impartiality, that he was neither a loyalist nor an oppositionist.

He pulled it off by fading his ego into the background. First by not standing for a guaranteed seat in the elections, and second by focusing all the energies of his cabinet on execution and day-to-day issues. All beef but no sizzle.

Have we seen the end of Najib Mikati’s political career?
It is too early to judge, but the ascendancy of the Future Movement gives him no option but to join them. He has shown a lot of signs that he is willing to, and he could fill a large vacuum. Did you guess which vacuum? The one between the very old old-guard (Seniora, Tabbara..etc) and the very young new-guard (Saad & Co.)
Mr. Mikati seems to be destined to be a transition man.
He can also be their man for the North. I personally like him much more than Samir el Jisr.

As Najib Mikati hands the keys of the Grand Seraille to Fouad Seniora, he can be a proud man. Although he’ll never be Prime Minister again, History will always remember him as the rare Lebanese politician who had the dignity to gracefully bow out.

You make Tripoli and Lebanon proud.
Thank you

Te Quiero Seniora

Lahhoud "Admires Seniora's statesmanship"



(Lyrics Copyright of the song "Something Stupid", written by C. Carson Parks, and first performed by Frank Sinatra (Thanks Z.M)

Think Harder

The New Majority’s strategy to oust President Lahhoud looks very flimsy.


It seems the opposition (we should start calling it “the New Majority”) has a plan to kick Lahhoud out: They form a “harmonious” government (code talk for a government where the president doesn’t have any say) to run the country. This will certainly push Lahhoud to reject it using his constitutional right (by withholding his signature). The designated Prime Minister will then quit, only to be re-appointed. He then choses the same ministers all over again.

The idea is that the cycle will keep going on (with different variations, like one where the PM will accept Lahhoud’s ministers, but the government then gets a no-confidence vote from the anti-Lahhoud majority), until the country gets into an impasse and a government crisis, which will be squarely blamed on the president.

Supposedly, this will let the president feel so guilty he won’t be able to live with himself anymore. So he will decide to resign so that Lebanon can stand back on its feet again.

You call that a plan? I’ve seen Wile-E-Coyote come up with better ones..

The fact of the matter is, Lahhoud is here to stay and he’s getting stronger by the day. He is emboldened by the Patriarch’s refusal to kick him out, the re-appointment of Berri, the American’s increasingly bad situation in Iraq (remember John Kerry? he is starting to say: I-Told-You-So), and the election of a hardliner in Iran.

But he has to go, so please think of something better.

* To read more about the intricacies of the opposition’s plan, read Emile Khoury’s piece in Annahar (requires Arabic).
* Also, for all of you conspiracy buffs, Zayyan’s article is a must-read to wonder about the “June Mystery.” (requires Arabic).

Bloggers Vs. Berri

I guess the first round of online activism was largely symbolic.

We tried to express our displeasure, but it seems a decision has been made to keep our nemesis in power. Compromise sucks, especially when it is just rammed down our throats like that.

It was Hezbollah, not Amal, that imposed him on us. Now that it’s emboldened by the elections in Iran, it’s feeling free to order people about.

Cheers to the “white block”, the M.Ps who decided that, for symbolic reasons, they are going to vote against Berri’s appointment.

It’s also great that Seniora is becoming Prime Minister. A veteran Haririst Number-cruncher is exactly what we need for the role of Prime minister. Some challenges like reforming Social security and finishing privatization are going to be tough, but he has political backing.

But I still think that Lahhoud has to go.

Seeing Blue

All the success and glory of the Future Movement comes from one single art that they mastered very well: Overwhelming counter-attack.


In the martial art of Aikido, a fighter prevails by using the strength of his enemies against them. An Aikido practitioner knows very well how to use the energy and momentum of a raging aggressor for his own end, consequently defeating him with astuteness and minimal physical effort.

Mustapha Hashem, the new and proud member of the Future Movement M.Ps in Akkar, is by no means an Aikido master. But watching him assault the FPM’s Gebran Bassil with his own weapon makes you wonder.

Gebran Bassil had said that the Mufti was being biased in the last round of the elections, and in the process he made a few ill-advised comments about the Mufti’s worthiness.
Picking up on that, in typical Future Movement style, Mustapha Hashem focused on Basil’s statement, magnified it, laid it bare to Mufti-adoring masses in Akkar, then retorted loudly by reminding Bassil, a Christian, that “Moslems respect their Mufti the same way Christians respect the Patriarch”…

Regardless of how abhorrent this confessional exchange is, or who’s right and who’s wrong, the incident is a perfect demonstration of how the Future Movement works:
They mind their own business (which is slowly gathering popularity and power), until someone notices that they pose a threat and picks up a fight with them. Being the victims, they get sympathy. They then add to that sympathy a devastating arsenal of attack dogs, from media, to connections, to influence to power. Before you know it, their opponent is blasted into oblivion. They grow up a notch, move on, and go back to minding their own business again.

In Lebanon, Napoleon seems to have gotten it wrong: defense is the best offence. A brief look at the history of the Future Movement carries a wealth of examples.

In 2000, Hariri the father was being relentlessly attacked by the then PM Salim el Hoss and President Lahhoud. His counter attack got him all the seats of Beirut, precisely because the election law was rigged against him.
This year, the people in Tripoli and Akkar only voted en masse for Hariri Jr. because they felt that Aoun and Franjieh are attacking him. The voters seemed to be thinking: “How dare Aoun talk about petro-dollar while the Martyr’s blood hasn’t dried yet??”
It amazes me how Hariri's opponents never seem to learn.

Stand By Your Man
Like in the case of the Mufti, Some examples are less obvious.
Take the one that is going on right now between the interior minister (a Haririst) and his detractors. They are accusing him of not doing anything with the latest car assassinations and of being worse than his Syrian-backed predecessors.
The Future media network is now busy counter-attacking by focusing daily on the progress of the investigations, with juicy gimmicks like suspect sketches, detective divers and explosives analysis.

Unfortunately, the biggest, most effective, but saddest counter-attack of them all, was the one that drove the Syrians out of Lebanon. This latest example shows that although the future movement counter attacks very well, it sometimes wishes that it has never been attacked in the first place.

Dear Saad...

My co-blogger "A Lebanese Abroad" has this message to promote.
The Beirut Spring supports its content, and would like any Lebanese person who has a website or blog to help promote it (before tuesday)



If you accept its content, please sign the petition

(ps: The Beirut Spring's version is slightly modified from the original one)

Taming Berri

It seems everyone is accepting that removing Berri is not realizable.
The second best option: Transform him.


If today’s Al-Safir is correct, a compromise seems to have been reached on Berri. His deputy would be Future Movement’s Mr. Farid Makari. Making a Haririst take the most senior orthodox position in the land.

Also, the chatter is that Hariri would require strong, tangible commitments from Berri regarding issues deemed important to his Christian allies (the release of Geagea, better electoral law, reviewing relationship with Syria) before giving him a stamp of approval.

And finally, Berri, a surviving chameleon, seems to be making reconciliatory promises and noises.

What are you reading?

The Beirut Spring would like to contribute a grain of sand to the non-existing book culture in our Arab world

Apparently, the average reading time of the Arab individual is seven minutes PER YEAR. This sounds like an exaggerated figure. As my brother puts it: if you read a billboard everyday, you can make better time than that.

This figure sounds even more absurd to people like us; We’re the kind of snots that first read the news from all international sources possible, in all the languages we could muster (usually three in case you don’t know the Lebanese well). Then we move on to the commentary and analysis section. After that, as if all the above is not enough, we read blogs (also in different languages), and after reading the blogs, we start reading the comments to the blogs –and as the comments to my previous post show, this can be very beefy stuff-. How’s that for insatiability?

Which reminded me that we don’t have a book culture in Lebanon. Book reviews are not a big thing and books hardly make headlines. Let alone T.V shows and demonstrations.(The only combination of “book” and “demonstration” I can think of is when people go out en mass to protest something that happened to a Koran in some remote part of the world)

When international bestseller The DaVinci Code was banned from Lebanon, it was hardly mentioned in the newspapers. Yet this would have been very juicy material in the UK. It wasn’t banned in the Vatican, how could it be banned in Lebanon?? But then again, the Lebanese like to be more royal than the king.

I’m now reading Setting the People Free: The Story of Democracy, By John Dunn (picture and link on sidebar). I read a review of it in The Economist to other day and it caught my attention. “Democracy” has been taking a lot of beating by being championed by the likes of George W. Bush, so I figured I’d give it another chance.

I’m inviting you to suggest relevant books to what’s going on in Lebanon, or comment on the one in the side bar if you happen to have read it. (Release date in The US is January 2006)

Last but not least, please bear with me, I’m a slow reader, so a book might stay on my desk for a month or two (too much to read!).

If you don’t have a subscription to The Economist, here’s a selected part of the review:

ALMOST all of us are for democracy now. But what is it? We tend to know until we ask. The news adds to our puzzlement.[...]
Many more people have a say in how they are ruled today, but there is less choice. Voters pick among small groups of politicians competing for the right to rule pretty much as they choose within the law until dismissed at the polls […]
So different are the direct and representative sorts of democracy that Mr Dunn wonders why we use one word for both. Yet he is not a despairing critic who sees modern democracy as a sham. Underlying it and the old kind alike he detects a basic and seemingly universal human preference for being persuaded rather than coerced.

Amen

Birds Of A Feather

President Emile Lahhoud and Speaker Nabih Berri are both on the wrong side of history. It would be reckless to single out one of them. Either sack them both, or keep them both.


In a television plea last evening, Walid Jumblat was instructing his supporters to be calm in the event of his assassination. His concerns seem to be genuine; his life is in real danger, and it seems the killers are on the loose. But the question to ask is this: why the dramatic T.V. performance? Do you actually need to go on T.V to tell your supporters to be calm if you were assassinated?

I for one don’t trust Jumblat’s sincerity anymore. His appearance seemed to me more like emotional blackmail, consistent with his party’s aggressive policy to discredit and remove president Lahhoud from office.
But gimmicks aside, is such a policy the best way to go forward? Why then is president Lahhoud getting more and more sympathizers, from NewTV to Aoun to the Patriarch?

It’s because the PSP’s policy, by singling out President Lahhoud and ignoring Speaker Nabih Berri (who was as corrupt and pro-Syrian as the president), is perceived as unfair and hypocritical. It is also feeding into Christian unease about the latest “Moslem deal” to bring back the 2000 electoral law.

Ali Hmedeh, a writer in Annahar and the brother of PSP number 2 Marwan Hmedeh, wrote an article today titled. “What’s most important is to save the Lebanese from president Lahhoud”. He spoke of a “diabolical pact” between Aoun, President Lahhoud and the Moukhabarat to bring Aoun to the Presidency. This is why, he advised, the “disillusioned” Aoun has to repent and join the right side of history.

What Ali Hmedeh is doing is a classic PSP mistake: Focus on Lahhoud, forget about Berri. He doesn’t know that Aoun, by siding with the president, is only expressing a fair sentiment of his (Christian) constituency.

To play the devil’s advocate, I’m going to assume that Aoun has his own Ali Hmedeh. What would he write?

Let me guess, maybe an article called: “What’s most important is to save the Lebanese from speaker Berri”. He would speak of a “diabolical pact” between Jumblat, Hariri and Berri to keep their seats by restoring the 2000 electoral law.
He would also advise the “disillusioned” Hariri and Jumblat to repent and join the right side of history.

So Mr. Jumblat, save the tears and balance out your position: either kick both Berri and Lahhoud out, or just live with the idea of having them both around.

Snap, Crackle & Pop

Some people just never get it…


After Hariri’s victory in the North, Omar Karami knew whom to blame: The Mufti. So he decided that Lebanon needed another one. A Mufti for the people, to the people, by the people! (The same people who didn’t vote for Karami by the way).

Najah Wakim, in George Hawi’s funeral, stated cockily: “We shouldn’t discount the role of the American and Israeli agents in his assassination”.

In an angry letter to Annahar yesterday, ex Prime Minister Salim el Hoss accused Ghassan Tweini, the Godfather of free journalism in Lebanon, of having malicious intentions and of being biased.

I must say, I never understood these guys.

I once called them Euro-Arabs, but now I like to call them “The NewTV Gang”.
They once had a role to play, when their ideas (Arabism, resistance…etc) where still relevant and still had the power to inspire. But today, they’re not only in denial that those ideas are dead, they are also aggressively promoting their denial and criticizing everyone who is -Gasp!- moving on.

What sets them apart from other politicians is their proud intransigence: They think that the ideal politician should be someone who doesn’t change, doesn’t improve, doesn’t soul-search or doesn’t repent. “I’m still the same person” was the official campaign slogan of Najah Wakim. “Meeting with Aoun didn’t change me” is the title of Hoss’s letter to Tweini. This is why they like to attack alliances like for example the one between Jumblat and the Lebanese forces. “But you slaughtered each other”, they seem to shout with sincere disbelief.

They’re not bad people, they’re just too idealistic to be politicians. Some of them have their distinctive signature; Wakim loves attention, this is why he’s very noisy and conspiratorial. People as far as Kuwait make fun of him, yet his influence is so limited that finding a picture of him on the Internet is extremely difficult (I invite you to try).

So what’s the best way to deal with them?
I would advise: ignore them but don’t make them martyrs. Mr Tweiny gave Mr. Hoss too much importance in his editorial on Sunday. Also, Aljazeera gave Najah wakim too much attention when he was claiming, like Aesop’s frog, that he was the target of organized vandalism in the Beirut election.

Just make sure you don’t humiliate them in public; give them the occasional nod, it will quiet them down, but don’t take them too seriously…

George in the Jungle

George Hawi seems like a strange choice for assassination...But then again, maybe not...


In circumstances very similar to those of the assassination of Samir Kassir, George Hawi, the ex-leader of the Lebanese communist party and a recently outspoken critic of Syria, was killed in a booby-trapped car in Beirut this morning.

He seems like an odd choice for assassination. Granted he was a strong critic of Syria, but unlike Samir Kassir, he was neither a symbolic figure nor one influential enough to pose any threats.
Samir Kassir scared the Syrians because he was meddling in their internal affairs. He was a rising star, a symbol of freedom of expression and of the new youthful kinetics of the opposition. Killing him sent a strong symbolic message.

But Mr. Hawi is a different story: he was, sort to speak, retiring politically. So why would anyone want to kill someone that would not have otherwise made any headlines?

There are two directions one can look at.

The first is that the killing of Mr. Hawi is a message to the recently elected opposition. “We still exist, we’re still powerful and we have our eyes on you”, they seem to be saying. But at the same time, they lowered the caliber of the target to avoid the sort of popular uprise that could dethrone president Lahhoud.

The second direction, which is a bit more conspiratorial, is to look at the similarities between Mr. Hawi and Mr. Kassir. They are both intellectual, leftist, secular Christians who embraced democratic Arabist causes all of their lives. The tears in the shocked Elias Atallah’s eyes in the crime scene this morning say a lot.

It is still too early to tell why anyone would want to kill people with the abovementioned characteristics (which are somehow the opposite of Mr. Hariri’s), but one thing is for sure, recently elected Mr Atallah has to be very careful. He has already seen too many loved ones perish, and he wouldn’t want his loved ones to cry over him.

The New Parliament

This is the shape of the new Lebanese parliament after yesterday's final round in Northern Lebanon.


Please feel free to use this graph in your blogs or websites

CSM elections coverage

I was aproached by the Christian Science Monitor. They introduced me to their coverage of the Lebanese elections, making the point that despite their name, they are a secular organization.

They Maintain that "The Monitor is the rare US newspaper to take this event [Lebanese elections] seriously" this is up to you to judge.

They have profiles of Lebanese voters, Discussion Forums and Commentary...

(P.S: The Beirut Spring is doing this service for free, in the interest of free flow of information)

Operation Maximum Turnout

Vote Saad…Vote Saad…Vote Saad…Vote Saad…Vote Saad…Vote Saad…

“Good Morning, This is ma7soubkom Saad, I’m calling you to remind you how crucial tomorrow’s election is, and I would love it if you go out and vote for my whole list, have a nice day”. This is the phone call my mom got this morning. Needless to say, this is a recorded message in Hariri’s voice that most Traboulsi Households got (my mom was thrilled, but i'm sure not everyone was).

Also, Cell-phones got a “Go-out-and-vote” message from Hariri. I don’t have the exact text, so if you live in Tripoli and got it, please poste it in the comments section.

Thus, two new mediums to reach voters have been added to Hariri’s increasingly agressive arsenal; That's just in case you don’t watch Future T.V, read Almustaqbal newspaper, or attend rallies with free Halewet el Jibn (Tripoli sweets).

If anyone of you got an email to get out and vote, I would also appreciate it if you poste it.

Operation Media Warfare

Zoom In, Zoom Out

Hariri-owned Almustaqbal Newspaper today carried two noteworthy jibes at the Franjieh-Aoun camp:

1- “Tens of thousands attend Bibnin (Hariri - Akkar) rally and five thousand attend Franjieh-Aoun’s rally in Tripoli”

2- “Aoun supporters asked not to wear Orange in Tripoli”, it seems that Aoun-Franjieh’s Sunni allies want to keep their… ehm, Affair, a secret.

Also noteworthy, In Hariri-owned Future T.V’s coverage, when the Shaib list is talked about, they make sure to stress that Franjieh is the Head of that list.

Read why they think this is important...

Operation Lets get out of here

Gebran, here we come!

We’re a Sunni family that spends summer in Ehden. The dilemma is this: Ehden is a Franjieh stronghold, and from the way things are going, he sure won’t be happy with us Sunni Traboulsis. So we’re kind of concerned.

"I found the answer!" My uncled screamed. We should spend the summer where we really belong… Bcharreh!

The Taste of Victory..

It’s not about politicians, it’s about Hamburger.

Have you ever wondered why there’s no Zaater w zeit, Kabab-ji, Crepaway, Breakfast to Breakfast, Roadster and Bliss house in Tripoli?

Although nominally the second largest city in Lebanon, Tripoli has noticeably shied away from the exuberant proliferation of successful Lebanon-made franchises that has been taking place in the last few years. Except for some notable exceptions like Pain D’or and Maison du Café, the Lebanese super brands found it easier to operate branches in Kuweit than to do so in a city that is just 40 mins away. Why?

Some would say it’s because of our culture: People don’t eat out as often as they do in Beirut. But that doesn’t sound too convincing. There are a lot of home grown restaurants in Tripoli who are doing very good business although they have TERRIBLE service. How would you like a waiter to shout at you because you’re taking too much time to decide what you want to eat?

To get a better answer, just listen to the statement Karami made when he heard that Hariri is in Tripoli: “we don’t want strangers to impose their own M.Ps on us”.
In other words, Tripoli has yet to become an “open society” and dust off the old establishment’s xenophobia. “Karami doesn’t want Tripoli to advance” my dad always told me. Successful franchises have strict standards that always contradict with the demands of our gatekeepers who want a share of the business and to employ their cronies (usually Syrians) before they would give it a working permit.

Like Australia has its own animals, Tripoli is developping its own brands, and even exporting some of them to Beirut (like the Hallabs). But it's the same country and economics of scale still apply.

Some critics will disagree with my demand for the franchises, but it’s usually because of conservationist anti-globalist logic: The “small store by the corner” versus the “big megalomalls” argument. “we have better food” a lot of them will argue. Well, open the damn market, let us be part of this big feast called Lebanon and let the consumer freely decide what to eat.

Sunday can’t come soon enough!

About that poem

In a previous post, i showcased a poem that a friend of mine, who attended yesterday's Hariri rally in Tripoli and got carried away, asked me to publish.

Although it made some of you vomit, it is an honest expression of a large chunk of the "Tripoli Street."

To read more about the pulse of Tripoli, i suggest an excellent article by Zayyan in today's Annahar.

The HJ factor

Allow me to introduce a new, accurate way to measure the level of political activity in the North: the HJ index.



So what exactly is the HJ index?

The HJ figure is defined as: The aggregate sale, in Lebanese Liras, of Halewet el Jebn (Tripoli sweets) in the area of focus.

A recent study by the Lebanese Institute for Political Nutrition (LIPN) has concluded that there is a direct correlation between the consumption of Halewet el Jebn and political activity. “We can’t understand why but it seems to be consistently true in all our samples”, confessed the amazed Elias Abu Razzouk, vice president of LIPN for research and marketing.

The relationship seems to hold true: As you can see from the graph above, there is indeed an unexplicable relationship between key political events and the sales of Halewet el Jebn.

The HJ can also be used to measure the geographic distribution of political activity. “The hilwanjis (sweet sellers) in Tripoli”, our economic expert explains, “are evenly distributed geographically”. “So in a way,” he continues, “high sales in certain areas mean that the voters there are numerous and haven’t made up their minds yet.”

He warns however that one has to be careful when working with the HJ figure. “Wrong data can lead to wrong policies” he insisted. This is why the Brand Preference Deflator (BPD) was invented. “It made sure that Hallab and Dweihy get the same treatment”.

Also, the figure has a downside, “or shall I say, an UP side”, he mused.
“As u can see from the graph above, there was a plateau after Hariri’s visit”, “because HJ has a limit that we shall call ß”, “it is the summation of the maximum production capacity of all the hilwanjis (sweet sellers) in the focus area”, “that figure is a constant, assuming that it is not worthwhile opening new outlets just for a few days”.



So, finally!, The Beirut Spring Has an answer to The Economist’s Big Mac Index

(P.S: while the HJ can indeed accurately describe political activity in the north, the abovementioned characters and institutes are purely fictional and are just for satire purposes)

Saad In Wonderland

A sorta fairy tale...

Once upon a time, in a town far far away…
Lived a people long doomed to fighting and dismay…

Until a handsome prince came from brotherly lands…
Vowing to take matters in his very own hands…

The people rejoiced. They sang and danced and feasted all night…
Promising that from now on, they will build, not fight…

Lets talk about sects

Who’s the boss?

Liters of ink have been poured into trying to understand the behavior of the Northern voter. How will the Aoun-Franjieh-Karami alliance fair? Will the fact that Saad is from Saida affect his popularity? How will the turnout be? Etc etc…

One word: Bullshit

The ink is definitely not going to waste. I mean we’re sitting here behind our desks craving anything to read about Lebanon. Most of us are living abroad and don’t have 24 hour access to LBC and Future T.V. So all the talk and analysis are a nice respite for us, giving us an illusion that we are somehow contributing… (I mean let's face it, you have to be really desperate to be a regular blog reader)

But aside from our self-deludedness, the point I’m trying to make is this: From my contacts in Tripoli and the North (where my family is from by the way), I am getting this very strong vibe that seems to be so overriding that all “discussions” about alliances and influences seem irrelevant.

The Northern voter will cast his ballot based on this simple question:
“From what religion is the head of the list I’m voting for?”

Simply, that’s it…No alliances, no Saida versus Trablos, no nothing… Just a matter of sectual pride (“sectual” is a word I just invented, pronounced “sexual”).

Which guy is the stronger man: the Christian Aoun, or the Moslem Hariri?

Think that Aoun’s alliance with Karami will get him some Sunni votes? Think again: Karami , Rafei and Mohammad el Jisr are all going down because they’re now considered the “servants of the Maronite guy”.

I don’t know whom to blame; I guess this is simply the way we are.

The Great Sunni Makeover [Part 2]

There is no god but God; Mohammad is the prophet of God.
And oh… Don’t forget to vote for Saad Hariri.



I used to strongly believe that the world would be a far better place without clerics, mullahs, bishops and priests. Yet an article by Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times last year (you need a subscription to read it, but you can read it for free here) let me re-examine this conviction.

Kristof, a staunch Liberal, argued that evangelists in Africa are doing most of the grunt work in combating AIDS, illiteracy and diseases. This is what he had to say:

I'm convinced that we should all celebrate the big evangelical push into Africa because the bottom line is that it will mean more orphanages, more schools and, above all, more clinics and hospitals. Particularly when AIDS is ravaging Africa, those church hospitals are lifesavers.
[…]
The evangelicals abroad are mostly pragmatists, not ideologues, so they should be a good influence on the Christian Right. While fundamentalists in America blindly oppose condom distribution, evangelicals in Africa see their friends dying of AIDS. They thunder against sexual immorality - but often hand out condoms.

As a blogger writing from Africa, I couldn’t but be touched by that logic, but I’m sure most of you are asking by now: what does this have to do with Lebanon?

For some strange reason, when I saw the council of Muslim scholars convening yesterday and asking the imams to support Hariri’s list, I remembered that article by Kristof.

To be clear from the beginning, I have always opposed the mingling of religion and politics. A blatant political affiliation by religious figures can only spell trouble. So why is Hariri courting them? But most importantly, why are they responding?

Pundits are already trying to answer: they say that Hariri’s reliance on the clerics means that he doesn’t have enough people on the ground to go out and vote. This is partly true. But to be honest, I think that this is just a small aspect of a much larger issue:

In the Arab and Muslim world, what should the ideal relationship between liberal (Muslim) rulers and Muslim clerics be?

There are a lot of models around us: In Egypt, Syria and Turkey, the ruling class ruthlessly fought them, letting them accumulate resentment and become more extreme. In Saudi, they shared power with them, which made them impose a lot of excessive positions on Saudi officialdom. In Pakistan, they’re just ignoring them, also causing resentment…

In Lebanon, (and to a lesser extent, Jordan), the late Rafik Hariri was experimenting with a long term solution: Nurture and support the moderates by appointing them to high positions (Mufti Kabbani) and building them gargantuan mosques in the middle of the capital to show them that Islam still matters. But most importantly, build them schools, clinics and orphanages in the far-flung regions that the clerics themselves can run.

Just like those evangelists in Africa, Moslem clerics in remote areas of Akkar, Dinnieh and Bekaa are the closest you can get to a civil society. These are the people who run the schools and clinics, and these are the ones who have the greatest influence on the people’s political choices. So they might as well be moderates.

So in a very simplistic way, this is how it works: you build us mosques and schools, we let you chose the clerics who run them and we will vote for your liberal economic agenda, hell we’ll even vote for Sitrida Geagea. But in the issues we deem important (like civil marriage), you will have to side with us.

Buying them off? Maybe, but the alternatives are ugly.

When the Syrians used to control those areas, they terrorized the clerics into supporting the pro-Syrians because they know the extent of their influence. But now that the scarecrow is gone, the clerics are siding back with their natural allies: their financiers.

The other day, I met a lady in Tripoli who teaches in a school in Wadi Khaled, a remote region in the north of Akkar. “My students love Hariri, but let me tell you a secret: except for them, nobody knows that Hariri is the one who built this school”

Amr Hamzawy from the Carnegie Endowment for international peace wrote this article in the Daily Star today: it explains how the “west” has recently moved from supporting Arab Liberals to supporting Moderate Islamists.

I have to tell him this: Sorry buddy, we invented this wheel before you.

(ps: you can read the first part, The Great Sunni Makeover, here)

Misunderestimated

The elections propelled into the Lebanese parliament a man that every Lebanese knows very well, but one that none of them can predict. Meet Michel Aoun, Lebanon’s most paradoxical politician.


There is a lot to say about this 70-year old man whose followers are so young you’d think his political rallies are rock concerts; a man so mercurial that just when you think you’ve managed to understand him, he does something that completely takes you aback.

He shouts at journalists and lashes out at his fans, yet sometimes he’s so calm and serene he makes Nassib Lahhoud look like a neurotic.
He screams generalities and populist rhetoric in his electoral rallies, yet he has one of the most comprehensive and detailed electoral programs in the Lebanese elections.
His logic appears so simplistic, so black and white that you’d think he’s illiterate, that is until he easily incorporates, in French, a relevant reference to literature, history or philosophy in his conversation.
You’d assume that as an army person, he’d be most comfortable with macho men who just obey orders, yet the general surrounds himself with soft spoken rather effeminate experts in suits and glasses who advise him on his moves.
He’s the most secular Lebanese politician, yet his strongest base is in devout Christian areas.
He doesn’t have the slightest of Arabist feelings, yet he chose Aljazeera for his first post-victory interview.

The list goes on, but perhaps the biggest paradox of them all, is the one that brought him into parliament: The general, who was the symbol of resistance to Syria, allied himself with the very pro Syrians who used to endlessly harass his followers.

So why would people vote for someone who seems so erratic, unpredictable and hot-tempered? Well, it is precisely because he is erratic, unpredictable and hot-tempered.
Unlike all other refined politicians who speak in code and always say the right things, Michel Aoun can come across as human, warm and sincere. This makes a lot of people trust him. Some voters are not searching for arguments, they just want to have faith in someone; this is why they created an orange version of La3younak (for your eyes).

The man who was able to surprise Walid Jumblat, the king of political radars, and make him throw empty punches in the air, has got to be a master politician. But Michel Aoun is no Machiavelli, he’s a natural.

In his bestselling book about power, Robert Greene advises power seekers to “cultivate an air of unpredictability to keep others suspended in terror”, and to “seem dumber than one marks”. He also suggest that one “plays on people’s need to believe to create a cult-like following”, and to “enter action with boldness”. Did I mention that the book’s cover is orange?

Michel Aoun is a wild horse to tame. But one thing’s for sure, he has made politics in Lebanon much more interesting to watch.

(P.S: I'm being emailed that the word "misunderestimated" doesn't exist. In fact, it was a term that was coined by George W. Bush, which lately came to symbolize the mask of stupidity that he (unintentionally) wears. Read more here)

The Hidden Loser

Aoun’s electoral victory took a big casualty: Patriarch Sfeir’s political influence.

The relationship between the Patriarch and General Aoun has never been a smooth one; people still talk about that day during the war when the general sent his men to beat up the highest Christian religious figure in the land.

But the difference between the two men is not just about chemistry; it’s about their vision of Lebanon. Everytime Mr. Aoun speaks of the future of Lebanon, he mentions the word “secular”, a word not too sweet to the Patriarch’s ears. The patriarch is also the Godfather of the Quornet shahwan Gathering, an umbrella group of Christian politicians who competed (and lost) against the general in yesterday’s elections.

The Quornet has always considered the Patriarch as sacrosanct. None of them publicly disagrees with him and they use his podium for all major political announcements. Aoun on the other hand couldn’t care less about the Patriarch’s political recommendations.

Everytime someone says that the Christians don’t have a leader, Quornet Shahwan members will rush to disagree by saying that they have the Patriarch. If that’s the case, then the dramatic victory of General Aoun, the man who considers the patriarch as just another religious figure, by the hands of the Christians themselves, means that the Lebanese Christians have just had a regime change.

Mr. President

Nassib Lahhoud may have lost a battle, but he still has a very important role to play in the future...

The Art of Losing

There is a big missing element in the Lebanese democracy: The Concession Speech.

Just moments ago, I spoke with George W. Bush and congratulated him on becoming the 43rd president of the United States[…]
I offered to meet with him as soon as possible so that we can start to heal the divisions of the campaign and the contest through which we just passed. […] I say to President_elect Bush that what remains of partisan rancor must now be put aside, and may God bless his stewardship of this country.
Let me say how grateful I am to all those who supported me and supported the cause for which we have fought […]
I know that many of my supporters are disappointed. I am too. But our disappointment must be overcome by our love of country.
And I say to our fellow members of the world community: let no one see this contest as a sign of American weakness. The strength of American democracy is shown most clearly through the difficulties it can overcome.

Al Gore, U.S. Presidential Candidate, Concession Speech, December 13, 2000

When the results of today’s polling come out, some people will have done better than others. Some people will become members of the parliament, some, who had high expectations will not.

The best way to come out as a winner, even if one loses the election, is to deliver a concession speech. An acceptance of the will of the people will be highly regarded in the next elections and will be a proof that the politician is a real democrat.

A concession speech usually thanks the supporters of the campaign, accepts the victory of the opponents, promises to work closely with them and promises to listen more carefully to the people next time. The most important thing in a concession speech is to stress that although one has lost, “our democracy” has won.

I hope this tradition makes it to Lebanese politics. With all the accusations and counter accusations we’re hearing, we really need it.

Don't read this!

(Other bloggers are invited to use the image above)

The March 14 Myth

The Lebanese should get over March 14 and realize that it takes time and effort to build a new country.


Faced with an election where a great deal of squabbling is expected to take place, the Lebanese commentariat has renewed its talk about “the death” or “the end” of March 14. How could people who marched hand in hand like brothers only a few months ago, their argument goes, be fighting each other over some lousy parliamentary seats on Sunday?

Their frustration is understandable and to a degree, legitimate. But to credit March 14 with anything more than just symbolism is naïve. A collective act of defiance against an external threat is hardly a significant turning point or a change in national character.

We all know how September 11 united all Americans in defiance. Even non-Americans pitched in: the French newspaper Le Monde, declared: “We are all Americans”, but still, before the presidential elections in November, you’d think that a war has broken out between the Americans, with a lot of newspapers declaring, with no shortage of drama, the “death” of the post-September 11 unity.

Politicians are also using March 14 for their own electoral ends (usually to stress the diversity of their lists), but if Jonny, Samir and Fatima held hands on March 14, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they should all vote for the same list on Sunday. The seats are limited and choisir, c’est laisser tomber.

March 14 will surely go down as a great day in Lebanese history, but as far as the present is concerned, it is just a glimpse of the future, a magic wand that we all dream of but don't possess.

So let’s wake up and roll up our sleeves. Only the slow buildup of hard work, sacrifice and compromise can achieve the real and sustainable March 14.

(painting by Mustapha Farroukh)