High stakes at Assad Speech

Tomorrow, president Bashar Al Assad of Syria is going to make a speech to the Syrian parliament about "The Situation in Lebanon". He has a very tough job to do, and I personally can't imagine how he's planning to thread that minefield.

While writing this speech (I wonder if he's the one who writes it), he will have to keep 4 audiences in mind: The International Community, The Lebanese Opposition, The Lebanese Loyalists and most importantly, the Syrian people.

He has to convince an increasingly hardlined international community that Syria is bending with their demands, namely withdrawing troops and intelligence honchos from Lebanon, effectively neutralizing Syria's grip on Lebanon's political process.

At the same time, he has to carefully keep Syria's aura of invincibility to both the Lebanese opposition and the Lebanese loyalists. A perception of weakness will further embolden the former and weaken the latter, which will, in panic, either switch sides or behave irrationally (destabllizing armed riots)

The most important audience, in my opinion, is the Syrian people. Can he possibly convince them that he is not withdrawing because the Lebanese people took to the streets? Could he possibly hide from their view the liberating capacity of people democracy?

The very existence of the regime is at stakes here, the speech tomorrow is the hardest the young Assad will ever have to make.

Good luck Mr president (yeah right)